The 2022 Longshot Thread

Clearly, this is wildly speculative and not one to go wild with, but.....

Jesina 3.20 Cork Currently 150-1 B3 (has been 200) 6 places

Nice breeding Milan - Jeree/Flemensfirth, sister won a maiden

Jessica Harrington-trained


Showed ability in Galway and Punchestown bumpers, and promise in two hurdle starts last autumn. I'd say the best of those was when she was ridden from the front.

Jockey Conor Smithers rode a great race from the front on Lifetime Ambition (also Jessica) in the Troytown. Fingers crossed he tries the same approach here.

There are strong enough arguments that much of the rest of the field may not be up to much or need more time.
 
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Well, around three out, there was some definite hope, and it was very much a case of 'come on J, keep going, keep going'.

Sadly, she couldn't.

But I'd say the run confirms there's some ability, and once it was clear she wouldn't make the 6, then the further back she finished, the better.

Maybe the layoff contributed and she wasn't quite ready, maybe better ground and a mares only might do the trick one day, wouldn't want to be taking less than 50-1, though. We'll see.
 
chaumi said:
Well, around three out, there was some definite hope, and it was very much a case of 'come on J, keep going, keep going'.

Sadly, she couldn't.

But I'd say the run confirms there's some ability, and once it was clear she wouldn't make the 6, then the further back she finished, the better.

Maybe the layoff contributed and she wasn't quite ready, maybe better ground and a mares only might do the trick one day, wouldn't want to be taking less than 50-1, though. We'll see.
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I did it 40/1 9 places and at least we had some excitement/ hope for a while.maybe a drop back in trip.
 
I've thrown a couple of quid at Elodorado Allen in the king George at 27 on the machine. He was beaten 3.5l by bravemangame giving 3lb, so the difference in their prices is just too big.
 
moehat said:
Please remind me if Wearapinkribbon runs again: I backed it yesterday and I’ll kick myself if it wins and I miss it!
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Runs in the 3.53 Taunton. 80-1

Stablemate Menapian goes, too. But only gets a stone from Weara instead of two.

But this looks a much stronger race on paper. Bailey's is a worry, even Telefina I think may have something. Plus a few others. Wearapinkribbon would have to step up considerably. Not inconceivable, if she goes to 100-1 or more it may be worth a try with 4 places up for grabs. Instinct says this might be too tough, though, and a weak class 5 in the spring is more likely. I've been wrong before :) Numerous times.
 
A shame, out of the first 5 home only the winner was finishing as well as Weara. We'd have been better off with stone last, unless anyone else took the 5 places.

A 3m 2f class 5 at Newton Abbott next spring, or maybe 3 miles at Exeter will do it. With a couple of unplaced efforts in the middle to get the price again. Still only a 6yo, there's time.
 
chaumi said:
Runs in the 3.53 Taunton. 80-1

Stablemate Menapian goes, too. But only gets a stone from Weara instead of two.

But this looks a much stronger race on paper. Bailey's is a worry, even Telefina I think may have something. Plus a few others. Wearapinkribbon would have to step up considerably. Not inconceivable, if she goes to 100-1 or more it may be worth a try with 4 places up for grabs. Instinct says this might be too tough, though, and a weak class 5 in the spring is more likely. I've been wrong before :) Numerous times.
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Thanks for that: I forgot to check the forum today, though. He’s still worth keeping an eye on.
 
I Hope Star (80/1 - B365, 66/1 elsewhere) runs in the opener at Kempton; first time over hurdles and with a 600+ day absence to overcome.

Clearly, he has had some issues (this will be only his 5th run in a little under 3 years), but he was a reasonably smart Bumper horse, and connections are clearly keen to keep going with him. In receipt of 8lbs from the principles, I've had an each-way swing to see if he can run to a mid/high-120's mark, as - despite the unbeaten records - I'm not particularly jazzed by any of them at the head of the market.
 
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Welsh National - Regina Dracones 20/1 - stable mate of Elvis Mail which I'd put up for the Hennessy and which also held an entry for this. Not beaten too far in a competitive race last time and young enough to improve. (But I want QW to win!)
 
It would obviously be folly to back anything in the 3.00 Leop with any serious expectations, with well over half the field appearing capable. But, for fun, both of Joseph O'Brien's could give a nice run with ground and distance both about right. A Wave of The Sea (still only 6, and plenty ahead you'd think), and Early Doors (blinkered first time, might shake him up a bit) 33-1 and 40-1 respectively.

Both would appear to have sound enough chances of getting in the 6 with clear enough rounds.
 
Mark Walford knows what he's doing (Into Overdrive) and runs an unexposed youngster in the 11.50 at Wetherby. Wandering West (out of Westerner and a very lightly raced mare who showed some promise in Irish bumpers).

After a promising first run in a (far too short) 2m point, Wandering's next race was a Wetherby novice over two and a half, where he ended up close enough to confirm some ability is there. The next few unplaced, maybe still learning, maybe too short. First go at 3 miles here, possibly right up his street.

Race is packed with capable enough class 5 handicappers - maybe the odd potential class 4 - so clearly no big bets here, but 100-1 is OK to find out if Wandering is ready to show his hand.

Tom Midgley rides, reasonable record for the stable (half of runners in first four - 9 winners from 44), and it may be a pointer that Jamie Hamilton doesn't take the ride (but doesn't ride anything else in the race, either).
 
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Have had an each-way go at French Dynamite (25/1 in places) in the Savills, because a) I think it’s a pig of a race, and I couldn’t bring myself to back anything shorter, and b) I can’t see why Mouse would have swerved much easier assignments to go here.

A low-confidence lunge.
 
2.35 Leicester
Zambezi Fix was placed off 5 & 6lb higher in a couple of decent 2m handicaps at Sandown in December and January last season and gets his favoured heavy ground today so worth an each way poke at 22/1

Needs to step up loads on his last effort though


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viking said:
2.35 Leicester
Zambezi Fix was placed off 5 & 6lb higher in a couple of decent 2m handicaps at Sandown in December and January last season and gets his favoured heavy ground today so worth an each way poke at 22/1

Needs to step up loads on his last effort though
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I haven't studied any form for today but am following you in, viking. I had ZF nicely handicapped not long back and would almost certainly have found myself fancying it for a Saturday handicap some time soon. Might as well have a pop today!
 
1.10 Leopardstown
Hemlock hasn’t run this season so might be lacking for fitness but was close up behind Eric Bloodaxe at Fairyhouse in April and gets a handy pull with that one today so I’ve had a small interest at 66/1


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viking said:
2.35 Leicester
Zambezi Fix was placed off 5 & 6lb higher in a couple of decent 2m handicaps at Sandown in December and January last season and gets his favoured heavy ground today so worth an each way poke at 22/1

Needs to step up loads on his last effort though


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He’s certainly got his heavy ground! What’s interesting is they just said that the hurdles course is heavy but the chase course is good because it doesn’t get watered during the summer and it’s on higher ground.
 
An interesting 289-1 place double on the place part of the EW.....

Teuchters Glory 3.25 Leop 80-1 B3

This has the makings of a strong race, and it may not be a surprise if a few end up under consideration for Cheltenham.

Have a look at both Teuchster's runs so far and see how effortlessly he moves from last to running in contention for the lead. On the first, a couple of years ago, put the semi-useful Coach Carter in his place to win first time up.

Came from the back with no effort again when running against Caldwell Potter just over a month ago (Jamie Codd 'chooses' this one here from Elliot's 3)...and while Caldwell looked strong, there didn't seem to be any effort from Teuchter's jockey other than some gentle pushing and a single tap. Two ways of reading that....1. He knew he wouldn't get near the winner, 2. After such a long break, he didn't want to test the horse too early and risk a future.

Three from Gordon and two from Willie. And John Kiely's looks likely to have potential to progress. But if you take the view that Caldwell Potter is the Elliott first string on jockey bookings (although it doesn't look that way in the betting), then with this likely softer ground, it's not inconceivable that Teuchters could finish a lot closer. Clearly, CP might have improved a tad, too.

One worry (aside from the 5 that could be anything!) - trainer-ridden. As he was in November.

Whatever happens here, our boy has some ability, and if he can jump, the money will only be loaned for a bit.

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Donald Whillans Frammasone gelding Cowboy Cooper in the 2.48 Kelso. 80-1 B3, 66 all others

It's likely that Cowboy will need a run or two more before he can show anything. But the heavy ground could be a leveller here.

Lucinda's Traprain Law has the look of a potential false odds-on favorite. Nick seems to think his Fortescue Wood will struggle to beat Traprain. Sandy Thomson's Carcaci Castle won his maiden well enough but nothing to say that was a particularly strong race.

Donald's other runner Gie It Laldy will no doubt have the ability and show it at some point, but the thoughts here are it will be a bit early, and he seemed to show a potential preference for better ground in his bumpers.

Sandy Forsters Pipers Cross might have something based on his Kelso bumper win, but my reading is we're looking at 3 mile + chases later on.

Donald is noncommittal - "we're looking for nice runs from them"

If Cowboy runs well here, it's the last time we'll see 80-1 in an 8-runner race. As always, if it goes wrong, it's just a matter of time and waiting for the recovery day!
 
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A couple for me on Saturday.

Newbury 2.25 Kalooki pulled clear with Cat Tiger last season at Doncaster when just prevailing and that showcased Kalooki at his best. Cat Tiger actually franked the form a couple of times after. Kalooki seems to have lost his form since then, but maybe Phillip Hobbs can bring him back now that Kalooki races off this mark of 130. I've taken a chance a 20/1.

3.35 I put up Rakhine State on his last start. He is a lightly raced horse formerly with Gordon Elliot. He is put in as rank outsider by the bookmakers here, and he is up against a few last time out winners, but his last start which was his first over fences wasn't too bad, staying on for third place. He could come on a lot for that run, but he'll need to here. Sam Twiston Davies booked for the ride which can't be a bad thing so I've done him each way.
 
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I think we need to keep an eye on Nicky Martins runners. I looked at her 200/1 winner last night but couldn’t make a case for it. I even looked up her strike rate in the early hours of this morning and discounted it. I apologise for aftertiming but The Two Amiga’s was top rated in my little system for the Welsh which is why I looked at her runner today. I think I was logged out of my WHill account and couldn’t be bothered to go onto oddschecker to put a few pennies on. I’d even been reading an old Racing Post article about Nicky Martin and hadn’t realised she was a ‘she’.
 
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