The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

Euronymous said:
I got some 2s about Ahoy Senor for the Many Clouds tomorrow and he's still 11/8 - I'd make him 8/11.
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Ahoy Senor wins if putting his best foot forward but despite having a good record here he needs to cut out the jumping to his right, which seems to be getting worse, and settle better than in the Charlie Hall, which is conceivable considering it was first time out.

FWIW I took 15/2 e/w extra 3 places about Sam Brown yesterday which seemed plain wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Scottish Premiership top scorer - Kyogo Furuhashi (4/1) and Giorgios Giakoumakis (5/1) dutch at 7/4. I think that is massive. I reckon they will be first and second in the charts, miles clear of the rest. I just don't know which will score the most but I do reckon both with score at least 20. 13 was enough to win it last year but that was an outlier. It usually takes closer to 20 and in a good year a real striker will get closer to 30. Both these guys have that kind of figure in them.

Personally I fancy Giako to emerge top because his conversion rate is higher. He only played a third of the season last time and ended up joint top. Kyogo missed half the season (20 matches, from memory) and was only one goal behind. They will replace each other in lot of matches and I hope at some point Ange experiments with playing both of them. But Kyogo is tending to start while Giako catches up on pre-season having missed a couple of weeks due to paternity leave.

Yesterday Kyogo could/should have scored at least two and was thwarted by last gasp challenges on another two occasions in the 60 minutes he played. Giako came on for him for the final half hour and spurned two good chances, one a sitter for him. I'm happy to put that down to rustiness. On another day they will get four or five goals between them.

I'm really confident about this bet but last season showed what bad luck with injuries can do. Injuries are the only thing that will stop this from winning.
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I'm hearing that Giako's young family are struggling to settle in Glasgow and there's a strong chance we'll try to accommodate a transfer this upcoming window. He and the fans have really taken to each other but an unsettled family might impact on his performances.

I've cashed out his portion of the bet for a loss but if Kyogo ends up top scorer, which is looking highly likely, it won't matter too much.
 
300 odd thousand quid, Arctic B. There were possibly some sighs of relief in some quarters. Or maybe they knew they had a machine.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm hearing that Giako's young family are struggling to settle in Glasgow and there's a strong chance we'll try to accommodate a transfer this upcoming window. He and the fans have really taken to each other but an unsettled family might impact on his performances.

I've cashed out his portion of the bet for a loss but if Kyogo ends up top scorer, which is looking highly likely, it won't matter too much.
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Having gone odds-on back in August, Kyogo is back out to 13/8 in a place so I've gone in again at that price now that he is back in a seam of form and looking as sharp as I've seen him since his arrival. Even the BBC guys are saying he looks like doubling his current tally of 13 goals [in 17 games] and we're not yet at the halfway point of the season. Nobody else in the table will get near that. Last season, after missing five months through injury, he was only one goal off the top with about the same number to his credit.

At this stage, I reckon his true odds are 1/3 at best.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Newbury 12.45 - Thyme Hill 11/8 - I always look forward to this race, recent past winners of which include Ahoy Senor, Next Destination, Santini, Elegant Escape and Native River. Thyme Hill (11/8f) strikes me as the most likely winner, being the best of these over hurdles and I’m not convinced McFabulous truly stays this trip, which might explain why Cobden opts for the stable mate. I reckon the favourite should be odds-on so am happy to avail myself of the 11/8.
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That's what I was backing Thyme Hill to do in the above post.

Sometimes this game is a scunner.
 
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