The 2022 'Should be odds-on' Thread

He definitely has claim on the flat anyway, thought he had minimum claim over jumps too but stand open to correction.

His 3rd behind ginto this time last year is standout. Even his 2nd to pinkerton St Stephens day is very good. Pinkerton was only 7L behind Journey with me last Sat at Naas & is 2nd or 3rd fav for Ballymore. I don’t think there’s anything any where near that caliber of horse lurking tomorrow. He’s placed behind Ginto on heavy ground & on breeding I don’t see that as an issue.


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I don’t know what to make of that. Gone turning in & the one I was worried about in Geordies Dream was gone down the back straight before him.


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Friday Kelso 3.05 - The Mighty Arc.

Bang in form with bottom weight and Brian Hughes jocked up. This must win or go very close.
 
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Jeezo, Marb, that's one helluva shout if it wins.

Bottom rated on adjusted RPRs, 9lbs off the top-rated. In a handicap. At Kelso.

If it wins you deserve a blow-job (not from me, you understand...) :D
 
Marb said:
Friday Kelso 3.05 - The Mighty Arc.

Bang in form with bottom weight and Brian Hughes jocked up. This must win or go very close.
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This race is interesting to me as EMPIRE STEEL runs in it.ive backed this for the Ultima.it seems to like a month between races so this suits.this trip is shorter so I'm hoping it gets outpaced and stays on for a place.im hoping yours gets an easy lead and stays there.
ES is on a good mark at the moment.
 
Outsider said:
This race is interesting to me as EMPIRE STEEL runs in it.ive backed this for the Ultima.it seems to like a month between races so this suits.this trip is shorter so I'm hoping it gets outpaced and stays on for a place.im hoping yours gets an easy lead and stays there.
ES is on a good mark at the moment.
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:thumbsup:

Won like an odds-on shot.

The Mighty Arc - least said...
 
Outsider said:
This race is interesting to me as EMPIRE STEEL runs in it.ive backed this for the Ultima.it seems to like a month between races so this suits.this trip is shorter so I'm hoping it gets outpaced and stays on for a place.im hoping yours gets an easy lead and stays there.
ES is on a good mark at the moment.
Click to expand...

Yours won well, Outsider. I am sure it will have a few fans for the Ultima now aswell. Htting form at the right time.
 
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I've spent the last 24 hours swithering - should that be 'dithering'? - about this one...

Chepstow 2.18 - Bells Of Peterboro 9/2 - I took 11/2 last night and am tempted to go in again more heavily now that I see money is coming for it. I think I mentioned it on the longshot thread last night.

This is my summary of the race put out elsewhere this morning:

Only Bells Of Peterboro of these has qualified so this is, I think, the last chance saloon for the others. I would still work on the idea of a rating in the mid-130s as making the cut for the final so most can afford to settle for a top six place here but Bells Of Peterboro can’t. They had to find an excuse for him last time but he was weak in the market and maybe the race just came too soon but he still qualified. He has to win here to go up the ratings. 11/2 seems a very good price, as does 66/1 NRNB for the final.

I can't make a case for anything else in the race winning and on my figures the horse only has to run to my rating for his last win to win by a very clear margin, something I imagine they'll want him to do.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've spent the last 24 hours swithering - should that be 'dithering'? - about this one...

Chepstow 2.18 - Bells Of Peterboro 9/2 - I took 11/2 last night and am tempted to go in again more heavily now that I see money is coming for it. I think I mentioned it on the longshot thread last night.

This is my summary of the race put out elsewhere this morning:

Only Bells Of Peterboro of these has qualified so this is, I think, the last chance saloon for the others. I would still work on the idea of a rating in the mid-130s as making the cut for the final so most can afford to settle for a top six place here but Bells Of Peterboro can’t. They had to find an excuse for him last time but he was weak in the market and maybe the race just came too soon but he still qualified. He has to win here to go up the ratings. 11/2 seems a very good price, as does 66/1 NRNB for the final.

I can't make a case for anything else in the race winning and on my figures the horse only has to run to my rating for his last win to win by a very clear margin, something I imagine they'll want him to do.
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9/2 with only 365 and not much 4s around when that is gone.
 
Halfway through the race a tradesman came to the door and I missed the final lap. Very disappointed (and considerably poorer) with the result. Looks like that wide-margin win form can't be trusted. Smashed the SP but did me fvck all good. Not a good result for the thread either. :(:(
 
Desert Orchid said:
Halfway through the race a tradesman came to the door and I missed the final lap. Very disappointed (and considerably poorer) with the result. Looks like that wide-margin win form can't be trusted. Smashed the SP but did me fvck all good. Not a good result for the thread either. :(:(
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It was a very good bet. They didn't seem to go too fast so was strange how quickly he cut out given he was ridden prominently and travelled well.
 
1 from 2 today with 9/2 and 5/2 odds. and one of them backed in well enough to suggest it was a solid bet. will always take that.
 
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