The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
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Time to get a new thread started.

I haven't checked the 2022 thread for profit/loss stats but I'd be surprised if it didn't make a healthy profit.

The bottom line, though, at least for me, is that it isn't all about finding winners; it's about finding 20/1 shots that should be nowhere near near that price. Even if they should really be 10/1 there's a 1/10 chance they'll lose but it's fun along the way.

So, for tomorrow's racing on, can we start posting these longshots on this new thread. I do reckon somewhere down the line one of us will put up a 100/1+ winner.
 
All of our 10p's and 20p's appear to have caused Jacamar to go very blue! Won't make him run faster or jump better...but always pleasant when you're on at a big price and it is no more (for now, at least).
 
KILKENNY STAR 140T 40/1
was travelling well at the back when hampered and u/r at the 3rd last.i suppose they hadnt started to race and dont know what would have happened but 40s is worth a small bet.same lady jockey.
 
In the last at Cheltenham tomorrow there’s a horse called Fravanco that’s been backed from 80’s down to 28’s. I only noticed it because Marc Goldstein is riding it and it’s unusual for him to be riding away from Plumpton. I back most of his rides because Sheena West is one of my (growing list of) favourite trainers. Never heard of the horses trainer: Madgewick (?) but the name reminds me of Magwitch in Great Expectations. Which is as good a reason as any to put my 3 pence ew on. Looking on TRP if you put a pound on all of his runners you’d be well in profit. But that seems to be that when he does have a very rare winner it’s a huge priced one!
 
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Cheltenham 12.45 - Switch Hitter 25/1 - weakish in the betting and a poor run on his seasonal debut require forgiving but I find that easy and he was only 10/1 for that, a race three times the value of this one. First time headgear and this drop in class make his price too long to go unbacked.
 
Eden De Houx 1.55c (My cliff horse) 33/1 & bigger E/W

I think we have covered plenty in this race between us, but the return to the UK of this one, after spending most of the year in France over hurdles and not that successful, returned to chasing 3 weeks ago winning a class 3 quite comfy at Flos Las (its 2 chase wins have both been at Flos Las) but not much of a field, up 8lb and now and off a career high but the Cheekpieces and Tongue tie combo has given this one a 40% strike rate.
Bit of a step up in class but they tried this over the 3.5 last year at the Cheltenham Fest. so I do not think the distance is a worry, if the schooling over the hurdles in France this past year has worked as it did lto, this could run into a place, I imagine it will drift again, I took 50's yesterday.

Plenty of negatives to be had thou, but I like the name hahahaha....

Finally Happy New Year to you all, thank you for all your useful info and winners.... I wish I could contribute more.
 
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Kim Bailey would have wanted a lot more rain, but still it won't be a surprise to see Happy home in front. I kind of hope Happy does want it softer, throws in a duff one, and then gets it in something like the Ultima. Next race on soft over 3 miles + is a clean-up job, just hope he doesn't blow it today.

David Pipe wanted rain for Eden, too, but still thinks he can run well.

Interesting race in prospect!
 
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Deyrann De Carjac 25/1 for Alan King in 155 C. Bottom weight (1lb out of h'cap) but 5ib claimer on board. Always seems to run his race at Cheltenham (ok run lto staying on). Worth a punt I thought.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheltenham 12.45 - Switch Hitter 25/1 - weakish in the betting and a poor run on his seasonal debut require forgiving but I find that easy and he was only 10/1 for that, a race three times the value of this one. First time headgear and this drop in class make his price too long to go unbacked.
Click to expand...

Non-runner, so I've switched to Easysland 50/1. If the National is the plan he needs to get back up the handicap but I fear he's just a dog.
 
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Outsider said:
KILKENNY STAR 140T 40/1
was travelling well at the back when hampered and u/r at the 3rd last.i suppose they hadnt started to race and dont know what would have happened but 40s is worth a small bet.same lady jockey.
Click to expand...

Good run for my money.5th weakened.
 
Lot of money going on Cloud Dancer in the 3.40. My horse now out to 80’s again! (well, I was convinced that this was a race that could throw up a big priced winner and totally focussed on it: but for some reason backed Edgar Alan Poe in another race earlier today without thinking too much about it other than liking something about it’s profile: turned racing radio on to listen to the 3.40 only to hear that Sue Smiths horse was leading: apologies for after timing but I’m still in shock. Thought for a minute that my 3.40 horse might do something. At least I’ve got another rookie trainer to look out for!).
 
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Well, we're not going to find the 100-1 winner if we don't look for it and take some big chances....

So...

Nordic Express 1.15 Ayr 200-1 B3 currently (from 100 earlier/overnight)

Ian Duncan with Patrick Wadge riding.

Ian nearly pulled off a surprise win with King of Fashion (Desert King/Jamesmead) at Ayr some years, and Kingy went on to become fairly useful in Northern races.

Been watching Nordic (Norse Dancer/Jamesmead) since race 1 of her career. The last handicap at Ayr, same distance as this, she finished well down but still with running left. Blinkered first time that race, visored first time this. Clearly had no chance in early bumpers and 2 mile novices. Tailed off first two-and-a-half novice on heavy.

But chances are she was still growing, and if she does have anything, it may come out today with almost zero weight and getting a fair bit from the principals.

OFC, any one of 12-15 could win - with Donald's So Many Roads looking a banker for the first 5 but not backable.


At 100-1, I'd probably have watched...and that's a fair price...but 200-1 is worth a few pennies EW.


NOTE : For anyone that doesn't use BF....if she does go off 100 or 200 SP and the (unlikely) magic happens...you might be kicking yourself when you realise you could have taken somewhere between 300 and 1000 on the Exchange.


UPDATE Now 250....and 500 would seem a possibility.
 
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Ignored my own advice when spotted So Many at 8 with a boost, and had a sizeable bet. He'd have beaten the one that came down at the last anyway. We live to fight another day with Nordic, I'll have to rewatch but again looked like she finished with running left. Maybe 3 miles next time might do it.
 
They were talking on racing radio about a trainer that trains out of Ann Duffields yard. I think he’s called Neville and he’s had a 66/1 winner recently. I suppose people know about him now but I’m keeping an eye on what’s happening at Ann’s ( or trying to). She started having a bit of success with hurdlers and I read that horses were going to her to be freshened up. I didn’t know other trainers were using the place, too. He sounds like the sort of rookie trainer that’s capable of getting a big priced winner because he’s not afraid of taking on the big stables. Of course my favourite giant slayer is Sheena West who does amazingly well with the small string she has and sends out the occasional raiding party from the depths of Plumpton.
 
moehat said:
They were talking on racing radio about a trainer that trains out of Ann Duffields yard. I think he’s called Neville and he’s had a 66/1 winner recently. I suppose people know about him now but I’m keeping an eye on what’s happening at Ann’s ( or trying to). She started having a bit of success with hurdlers and I read that horses were going to her to be freshened up. I didn’t know other trainers were using the place, too. He sounds like the sort of rookie trainer that’s capable of getting a big priced winner because he’s not afraid of taking on the big stables. Of course my favourite giant slayer is Sheena West who does amazingly well with the small string she has and sends out the occasional raiding party from the depths of Plumpton.
Click to expand...

There's more to it than meets the eye, Moehat. Patrick Neville played a big part in N'Golo's Swinton win when on the face of it, it just looked like AD had suddenly found some magic with jumpers.

And then he did it again in the Grade 2 yesterday with The Real Whacker. Yes, a trainer to watch for, but I fear the cat's out of the bag a little now.


From the RP, today I think,......
"
Neville branched out by himself in Britain only in November, having spent almost two years as assistant trainer to Ann Duffield, but brings 15 years of experience from Ireland, where he held a licence and most notably won Grade 3 and Listed prizes with Macville in 2010.


Neville, who was a key player in N’Golo’s Swinton Hurdle success in May, has two winners to his name since November courtesy of The Real Whacker - and what better place to enjoy the early success."
 
Darn it. I’d been watching her stable as well but didn’t pick up on that. We visited her yard a few years ago when we were staying at Middleham. I had a soft spot fir a horse of hers called George Dryden even though we were told not to get too close to him or he’d take our hand off.
 
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