The 2023 Longshot Thread

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I took a saver this morning on Chambard (BOG) and it's now drifted enough to qualify for a mention.
 
I was in raptures just looking at the list of dam sires in the veterans. Snurge, Terimon, Broken Hearted, Supreme Leader, Karinga Bay, Un Desperado. Met some of them when Uttoxeter used to feature a parade of NH Stallions ( those were the days). I still have a wax jacket that Karinga Bay slobbered all over and I fell in love with Terimon who was so pretty. Having watched a utube video about Arkle last night I’m having a complete nostalgia fest.
 
Outsider said:
Unfortunately so did I.very disappointing.
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I think it lost it at the start. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered anyway on the day but it won't do its Kim Muir mark any harm. Another moderate run or two before the end of February might get it back into the KM off the same mark as last season.
 
The betting suggested Coo Star was the favoured one today. I'd ruled Coo Star out. And thought Chambard would have the better chance. But I don't believe Chambard was just there to disgrace with other targets in mind.

So I didn't see a lot wrong at the start. Most likely, the plan was for Lucy to try and repeat what happened in the Kim Muir last year. And it all went badly wrong.

So something else was up by the look of it. And unless we get to hear of some valid excuse, it will be pretty hard to trust Chambard again until there's some evidence.
 
chaumi said:
The betting suggested Coo Star was the favoured one today. I'd ruled Coo Star out. And thought Chambard would have the better chance. But I don't believe Chambard was just there to disgrace with other targets in mind.

So I didn't see a lot wrong at the start. Most likely, the plan was for Lucy to try and repeat what happened in the Kim Muir last year. And it all went badly wrong.

So something else was up by the look of it. And unless we get to hear of some valid excuse, it will be pretty hard to trust Chambard again until there's some evidence.
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Yes I have to agree.maybe the kim Muir took too much out of him.
 
Wishing And Hoping was quite lightly raced over fences for a 13 year old wasn't he?

5 Wins from 18 chase starts now.

I'm wishing I'd paid more attention to him now. I had an early fancy in Kauto Riko and didn't study the race hard enough after.

Ah well. Live and learn.
 
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Agreed, Marb. We should really have spotted the possibility there.

******

Bear Force One ran OK, couldn't quicken when the chance was there.
 
He won a very good pointer winning four plus three hunter chases and is trained by a very good outfit.
 
chaumi said:
Agreed, Marb. We should really have spotted the possibility there.

******

Bear Force One ran OK, couldn't quicken when the chance was there.
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Yeah as I say live and learn.

I am guilty of the lazy option sometimes.

I'm not saying I would have backed him anyway but if you don't click on a horses form and have even a look then you are asking for trouble.

When you are only betting relatively small sums like 10 or 20 quid on a Saturday like me today it's easily done.

I need to see every horse in the handicaps for Cheltenham this year. That's my mission. I may get information overload but i'd rather have that than not do the form study.

As a lightly raced horse with a good win strike rate I think I would have at least identified he was too big a price for todays race.

I can't just dream up the winners months before either. I do like West Cork if he ends up in the County but other than that need to wait nearer the festival races to see whats there to run.

Maybe having this horrible flu for ages now has knocked the stuffing out of me!
 
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I would never have picked that one out. Even his trainer wasn’t sure that he’d take to it. Looking at his race record he was quite a classy sort but didn’t strike me as a dour stayer. ( dare I say that he was tipped up on TRF?). He also scored well in the OLBG 10 year stats section.What was in his favour was that he was a front runner. Up Helly Aa King enjoyed himself. Did anyone notice Phil Kirby’s Bushypark found his form again after a series of PU’s and finished 2nd at 50/1. Mike spotted him just as the race had started. He was regarded as the stable star till recently. I’m relieved that he didn’t win. I rarely get the Kirby horses right.
By the way does anyone know why William Hill didn’t display and comments about the horses on their race cards today? I had to look on oddschecker.
 
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My biggest mistake here was not interpreting/identifying the state of the ground adequately. Glance through Wishing's form/history, and you'll see what I mean.

The alarm bell will ring when you see the two races where they withdrew him - one with 'heavy' in the description, and the Warwick race last Nov with soft. My bet is that day at Warwick it was really bordering heavy, with too much else going on today I didn't take the time to look.

Basically, I let that piece of info cloud further judgment.

So...1. If you'd gone back a bit further you'd see he had run what seemed to be a reasonable race on heavy once before anyway. But he was a beaten 4-6 fav there, and my semi-educated guess will be that was the race that told them he didn't really handle heavy ground.

and...2. it wasn't anywhere near ******g heavy at Sandown today!

and...3. Heavy and soft are clearly different for Wishing. Plenty of evidence to suggest proper soft wasn't a problem.

Without that horrendous mistake, there were plenty of strong signals to say 50-1 was wrong.

*****

I'm not gonna say the other mistake cos I started to write it...and when it's down in words in front of me, it's just plain embarrassing :-( Won't make it again though.
 
Marb and Chaumi,

I don’t think you should be beating yourselves around the head, after all, there’s always some sort of reason to be unearthed and you could have done so whoever had won. In fact, to read the reports of what connections had to say afterwards It doesn’t sound as though they had winning expectations - “We were concerned about the ground and historically he hasn’t liked going right-handed as Peter (Andrews, owner) said we are here for the day out so let’s see how we get on.“

On top of that, at 50/1 it was never a house and furniture job anyway, however well you had read the runes. Just a small hopeful punt .
 
barjon said:
Marb and Chaumi,

I don’t think you should be beating yourselves around the head, after all, there’s always some sort of reason to be unearthed and you could have done so whoever had won. In fact, to read the reports of what connections had to say afterwards It doesn’t sound as though they had winning expectations - “We were concerned about the ground and historically he hasn’t liked going right-handed as Peter (Andrews, owner) said we are here for the day out so let’s see how we get on.“
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Thx Barjon Yes, that helps, I wasn't aware of their right-handed fears.
 
I'm kicking myself cause I'd been backing w&h blind last year on the scientific basis that I "quite like the song".

Saw he was out again today and thought "no, I'm not getting sucked in to that again". :mad:
 
These were my figures for the race but I never really gave the winner a second look. Was it always a longshot? I can't help thinking it must have been a fair bit shorter for me to have passed it over so readily.

[TABLE="width: 345"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]MON
154[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chirico Vallis[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Chambard[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Prime Venture[/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Elegant Escape[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wishing And Hoping[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Indy Five[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Saint Xavier[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Up Helly Aa King[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ramses De Teillee[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Snow Leopardess[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broken Quest[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ballyandy[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sir Ivan[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Crosspark[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]?
159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Run To Milan[/TD]
[TD]150[/TD]
[TD]+?
158p v[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Bermeo[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Kauto Riko[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][158ed][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Coo Star Sivola[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD][161v][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
icon5.png


I do think in these races rhythm is as important as anything and he was always travelling and popping.
 
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I’ve dug out my Jumping Prospects books from when he was with Alan King. 16/17 he was the 2nd eye catcher after Cosmeapolitan. ‘He has always been a big, rangy horse and should be suited by a chasing career’. Following year he was still in the eye catchers section but it said ‘he is a horse I’ve always liked and I was gutted that he failed to show his true ability when an unlucky faller on two of his three runs over fences last season. I was delighted to see him run so well in February. He is one who could win a decent handicap hurdle’. Sounds as though he lost his confidence and now being with someone who has taken him pointing etc he has regained his confidence and thoroughly enjoyed himself today. Nice to see a horse that never fulfilled it’s early potential win a big race: I assume he still has the same owners. He came fifth in a bumper behind Barters Hill, Buveur d’Air, Altior and Final Nudge. But he’s never been on my radar.
 
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Imperial Alex Chepstow 2:40 100/1

Someone, somewhere must have seen something in IA’s last run for me to have made a note:

8/11 Had another look at the race and Imperial Alex and can’t say I saw much to get excited about. I thought he jumped neatly, always looked comfortable, asked for something way out he responded quite well and from there was kept up to his work without being put under any pressure. A decent educational run, but nothing more that I could see. I’ll stick him in the book to watch next time, though.

Anyone have a clue?
 
I was looking at todays race cards last night and wondered what had happened to Tom Lacey. I seem to remember him being very much the second coming a few years ago but his horses dont’t seem to do much these days. I messaged WHill to ask why there are no descriptions on their race cards next to the horses any more but they didn’t seem to understand what I meant. I’m having to look on oddschecker to find out more about the runners. (I’ve backed Allanah’s Boy in the same race at 200/1 because he was an eye catcher in my Jumping Prospects book that said Westerners often take time to grow into their frames and he still thinks he will come good at some point: doesn’t seem to be happening this season but I don’t want to miss out if he does).
 
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barjon said:
Imperial Alex Chepstow 2:40 100/1

Someone, somewhere must have seen something in IA’s last run for me to have made a note:

8/11 Had another look at the race and Imperial Alex and can’t say I saw much to get excited about. I thought he jumped neatly, always looked comfortable, asked for something way out he responded quite well and from there was kept up to his work without being put under any pressure. A decent educational run, but nothing more that I could see. I’ll stick him in the book to watch next time, though.

Anyone have a clue?
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I have backed Abua Me Yang in the same race @66/1, outside the favourite the race looks very weak and no real depth, this lad had decent bumper form 2 years ago but obviously had a few problems afer, his comback run over 2m4f was promising until he faded late on - lack of race fitness and the strep up in trip perhaps, back at 2m today in a terrible race seems worth a speculative punt, extra places on B365 taken as well. Trainers only run at the track as well.
 
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barjon said:
Imperial Alex Chepstow 2:40 100/1

Someone, somewhere must have seen something in IA’s last run for me to have made a note:

8/11 Had another look at the race and Imperial Alex and can’t say I saw much to get excited about. I thought he jumped neatly, always looked comfortable, asked for something way out he responded quite well and from there was kept up to his work without being put under any pressure. A decent educational run, but nothing more that I could see. I’ll stick him in the book to watch next time, though.

Anyone have a clue?
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He was noted as an eyecatcher by the RP in the Parramount race. But we discussed on that other novices thread we were running, and neither of us could see much more than an educational run. Tom Lacey himself is saying today that his 2 here will have to improve radically to have any chance today. I don't think he's anticipating fireworks.....and (while not a certainty) my feeling is he's not a smoke and mirrors type.
 
barjon said:
Imperial Alex Chepstow 2:40 100/1

Someone, somewhere must have seen something in IA’s last run for me to have made a note:

8/11 Had another look at the race and Imperial Alex and can’t say I saw much to get excited about. I thought he jumped neatly, always looked comfortable, asked for something way out he responded quite well and from there was kept up to his work without being put under any pressure. A decent educational run, but nothing more that I could see. I’ll stick him in the book to watch next time, though.

Anyone have a clue?
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Doesnt this one come under the heading.
"One for hcaps"
 
Beef or Salmon said:
I have backed Abua Me Yang in the same race @66/1, outside the favourite the race looks very weak and no real depth, this lad had decent bumper form 2 years ago but obviously had a few problems afer, his comback run over 2m4f was promising until he faded late on - lack of race fitness and the strep up in trip perhaps, back at 2m today in a terrible race seems worth a speculative punt, extra places on B365 taken as well. Trainers only run at the track as well.
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Seemed to be going well till slipping: didn’t see the race so not sure how much it affected his placing but one to keep an eye on I think.
 
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