The 2023 Longshot Thread

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moehat said:
Darn it. I’d been watching her stable as well but didn’t pick up on that. We visited her yard a few years ago when we were staying at Middleham. I had a soft spot fir a horse of hers called George Dryden even though we were told not to get too close to him or he’d take our hand off.
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Don't think any of us knew. And I've noted every runner of Ann's for the last 8 years or so. When N'Golo won the Swinton, I was thinking 'how did she do that?' In the summer, we realised the Willie Mullins connection there.

It was only when The Real Whacker won his first chase in Nov...and the trainer switch became apparent..that some faint light bulb came on in my head. ie the NH runners were all seemingly his.

There's an angle there to watch for with his runners in future, wink, wink. But eagle-eyed forum readers will already know that.

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George Dryden won on debut back in around 2014 at Pontefract by 6 lengths. Ann probably knew she had a bit of a warrior then. Went on to run some nice races in handicaps, notably winning a class 3 at York by close on 4 lengths, and judging by the great runs in Class 2's at Ripon, that seemed to be his favourite playground.

11 now, hope he's having a laid-back time somewhere.


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PS Just realised Runninwild is 5 now....he will tear up a few at 6f this coming flat season.
 
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We used to go to Ripon when we stayed at Middleham. George was a very close second in a race there. There was a lovely man who used to take us on trips to the stables. He used to arrange a race at Ripon for young jockeys that had never won a race. The Duffields stable is outside Middleham and I think they were a bit funny about her using the gallops.
 
Huge apology for this ( I promise I won’t do this again). My friends horse was favourite for the first at Newcastle and quite often one of Phil Kirby’s ( Adam’s ex boss) runs a horse that beats him. So I backed Miss Scarlett ew at 125/1 ( even though she was Phil’s second string) and she came third. It looks as though the Kirby horses are on a going day today so I’ve backed some of his others. I always get the Kirby horses wrong but they often come in at big prices. I don’t think the Kirby yard would have been very popular if they’d beaten the favourite as it is owned by one of their main owners.
 
LOL well done Moehat.


Don't have time to do write-ups, but no surprise if Justshortofabubble outruns the 25-1 in the 1.00 at Hereford. Kimberley Eve looks a danger. And Goldie's two at Newcastle could both run into the frame at big prices. Ben Pauling's Malinas runner The Eminent Goose in the 3.00 at Hereford can run well at 20-1, excuse for the first pulled-up run and Ben thinks she has something. Will be ridden differently if the plan works.


PS and just noticed most likely 150-1 winner/placer - Drumlees Pet 3.00 Hereford. I don't think she will show some form today and certainly hope not- too many others look too strong here. One to watch for the future. But she has Irish ptp form, and a staying on 4th in a Fairyhouse bumper where at least two of those in front have won or run well over hurdles since.
 
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Oh no. 125/1 winner of the next race. C/D second last time out. I Dismissed it and backed the Goldie horse.Kirby horse came 2nd.
 
C/D second. Then ran over shorter distances at other tracks…drops a grade back at Newcastle and bingo. Then a 100/1 horse wins the next race!
 
chaumi said:
Have a look at the sire. And then think back to Nicky Martin's 200-1 winner a few days ago.
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Genuine Jim 6.30 Dundalk Friday. Complete no hoper. Going to be a massive price I would assume.
 
moehat said:
Genuine Jim 6.30 Dundalk Friday. Complete no hoper. Going to be a massive price I would assume.
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Yep R P Burns Not had that many runners on the flat. Has had one 3YO run without total disgrace (but well beaten) in a Gowran maiden. Jockey hasn't ridden for him before and has a respectable-enough Dundalk record (90 first 4 from 273, so he's at least ridden the course plenty. and 1 in 3 is no disgrace).


The only (possibly promising, but tenuous) angle I can see is that the owner of Genuine Jim has another GG (with a different trainer)...and that one ran a nice enough race first time up at 80-1, followed by 3 more close-up runs in maidens and then unplaced in listed/group3. That owner's only other horse also ran 2nd in a maiden first time up, too. It would be guessing and possibly/likely an errant conclusion, but it could be that owner has an eye for a youngster that can perform well enough in its early races.


I think we'd want 100-1 minimum, but looks like it might at least be worth trying to find any lost 10p's down the back of the sofa before Friday.
 
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Just a note on Ben Pauling's The Eminent Goose today. She pulled too hard, the plan was to settle her in and clearly, it didn't come off. She ran first three all the way and was cooked by around three out. If BP can teach her to settle, there may be a drastically different run on the cards at some point. The problem may be the only sensible way to try and take advantage will be to try it in running.
 
I really miss Tom Morley not being on racing radio. He was on a lot during the pandemic because he was happy to work from home. At first I found him a bit dour and grumpy and the sort of races he specialised in (AW stuff, maidens etc) didn’t really interest me. But over time he explained why he would buy certain horses ( never first foals or late foals etc)and what to look for in those sort of races. And after a time I warmed to his humour ( a bit Jack Dee like). He’d know if Genuine Jim was the real deal or un genuine Jim. My pennies will be on him but I fear that we’ve missed the boat with Galileo Gold’s progeny. I did get Inchagoilt Lady in the 3 o’clock because it was a steamer. To add insult to injury the owners of Endofastorm are called the Ontoawinner partnership. Just going to check if Genuine Jim’s owners are called the Ontoanotherwinner partnership.
 
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I'm thinking that first foal/second foal may be worth some attention and research at some point. Or at least something to keep an eye on. Sounds like we could really do with Tom's advice, yes.

There will be another big GG winner..it's just a matter of time and when :-) And Jimmy Boy has no idea that his relatives have already done the business recently. Three in close proximity, though, you'd have to say would be unlikely.
 
I might email WHill and ask if Tom is likely to be on again. He got a lot of stick for paying a lot of money for Arecibo but has had a lot of fun with him and came pretty close to winning some big races with him, picking up some good placed money on the way.
 
I looked at Privilege at Chelmsford last night to see if Robert Cowell was training it for Tom Morley. He wasn’t but Privilege has just won at 40/1 and I didn’t back it. I think I need a break.
 
moehat said:
I looked at Privilege at Chelmsford last night to see if Robert Cowell was training it for Tom Morley. He wasn’t but Privilege has just won at 40/1 and I didn’t back it. I think I need a break.
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Always worth noting RC's sprinters. Lipsink did something similar at Chelmsford in Sep 21, 50-1.
 
Tom was on racing radio a while back and he had two runners in a race. One was the favourite and the other the outsider. The outsider won. He was so embarrassed and I genuinely believe him when he said he’d heard nothing from Robert to say the outsider would win.
 
Saturday, Sandown 1.50 - Gladiateur Allen 22/1, 3 places - was running in Graded novice chases off marks in the mid-130s last season and gets to run off 123 here with the first-time tongue-tie. He's probably just not a natural jumper of the bigger obstacles but the price strikes me as generous.
 
The 3.00 Ludlow

It's not going to be a surprise to see anyone win this, with the exception perhaps of Wandrin Star if the ground is soft (as it appears to be).

So, in an arguably 5 runner race, the 22-1 on Head to the Stars seems just plain daft. Should be 10-1 or 12-1 max, given he loves the course and hails from the Daly stable that's still chucking them into the 1 spot or the frame with wild abandon.

It's possible that with older legs now he's vulnerable, but equally may yet have one or two last hurrah's left.
 
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chaumi said:
The 3.00 Ludlow

It's not going to be a surprise to see anyone win this, with the exception perhaps of Wandrin Star if the ground is soft (as it appears to be).

So, in an arguably 5 runner race, the 22-1 on Head to the Stars seems just plain daft. Should be 10-1 or 12-1 max, given he loves the course and hails from the Daly stable that's still chucking them into the 1 spot or the frame with wild abandon.

It's possible that with older legs now he's vulnerable, but equally may yet have one or two last hurrah's left.
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I was on as well and would have been interesting if he hadnt made that mistake.
 
Yeah just got to watch, had avoided seeing the result. It would have been interesting!! Shame, but we were on the right track :-)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Sandown 1.50 - Gladiateur Allen 22/1, 3 places - was running in Graded novice chases off marks in the mid-130s last season and gets to run off 123 here with the first-time tongue-tie. He's probably just not a natural jumper of the bigger obstacles but the price strikes me as generous.
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Have followed you here DO, it was the trainers short term recent form that caught my eye, 5 runners since New Years day, 3 winners and 2 seconds (one at 40/1) is very encouraging.
 
Bear Force One 8.00 Kempton looks overpriced with 365 at 66-1

Ran OK after a year off at Kempton in early Nov. Looks like they may have run him back too quickly for his 2nd run about 12 days after. Possibly bounced.

After a little break now, the word is Richard Teal is happy with where he is.

Earlier in career won and ran close 2nd in his other Kempton starts, and has a few nice enough bits of form on grass, most notably winning a Newbury Class2.

Lewis Edmunds has a good record for the stable from a very limited number of rides.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Sandown 1.50 - Gladiateur Allen 22/1, 3 places - was running in Graded novice chases off marks in the mid-130s last season and gets to run off 123 here with the first-time tongue-tie. He's probably just not a natural jumper of the bigger obstacles but the price strikes me as generous.
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GA is into 9/1 tops this mid-morning so I'm happy enough to have it on board.

However, last night I also took 9/1 The Last Day because I really rate the Aintree form. It would seem the horse has woken this morning with a leg or two missing because it's now out to a general 20/1, available to three places. Such market weakness is always disquieting but rarely does it put me off and if I thought 9/1 was generous - based on my figures - then 20/1 is ridiculous. Of course, there might well be a very good reason why it has drifted so alarmingly but I'm not privy to that reason and I've learned down the years that the market can't always be trusted, so I've gone in again. I can't remember if the price I got last night came with the BOG but today's definitely does so it will not bother me if it goes out to 40s. If it's just not there to win today so be it, but if it is...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Sandown 1.50 - Gladiateur Allen 22/1, 3 places -

...

He's probably just not a natural jumper of the bigger obstacles but the price strikes me as generous.
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I suspect the big market move was down to people latching on to the trainer's recent form but the horse can't jump for toffee.

If the market weakness behind The Last Day was down to a lack of fitness then I'd be quite pleased with his run. He hardly put a foot wrong at the fences and it was probably a decent race.
 
The Tolworth looks to me to be a fair bit substandard so I've taken the two outsiders against the field for the sake of an interest. Ukatango 50/1 and Colonel Harry 40/1.
 
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