The 2023 Longshot Thread

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edgt said:
David Garrick Thurles 2.35 ew 28/1
Won Students Derby at Curragh last start.
Has decent hurdles form last season and Harty 2-1-2 with last 3 NH runners.
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Didnt want to win today imo.drop a couple of pounds .
 
Looks like it .
A funny thing happened in the bookies ; as I lodged my slip with the clerk she scanned my docket and suddenly said " Why didn't you phone in sick ?"
Confused, i asked if she thought my docket was that bad.
Turns out she was answering her fellow clerk .
Thought I had the last laugh when Toofareastiswest and Harvard Guy won.
Alas poor David was not too busy...
 
Mixed emotions. Okavango Delta, horse I’ve adored ever since meeting him at the stables,.came 2nd at 40/1. Lost by a head. Having a bit of a break from betting I hadn’t looked at todays cards and feel so guilty that I’m relieved that he didn’t win.
 
Marb said:
Lingfield 1.35 - Clondaw Robin is outsider of the field, and his last season wasn't the greatist. However, his record second time out, after a break off the track since 2019, reads 1234, which I think is quite eye catching. He knows this place well, and his comeback run over hurdles here last time was half decent. Hopefully he won't be as keen this time. I'm having a dabble at 25/1 with the three each way places on offer. The favourite looks strong, but apart from that I think this horse can run well.
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This runs in the 1.42 at Fontwell on Boxing Day. 12's seem a fair price, so I'll have another dabble.

This class five performer will no doubt end up being another cliff horse of mine in the months to come...
 
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Christmas Hurdle - Sceau Royal 50/1 - I'm not suggesting he can beat CH, obviously, but on his better form of last season he's easily second best of this field. It's just a matter of whether he's anywhere near that level these days. I actually got 40/1 without CH yesterday so hope he's just ridden to beat the others.
 
Welsh National - Charlie Uberalles, falls into the 'could be anything' category.
At least longshot backers should get some sort of run for our money, as he usually likes to be up there. I am only taking his two chase wins as being anywhere near his true potential, where he made all and stayed on well at Perth, (yes, I said it, Perth). Either trainer and owners of this horse are there to enjoy the day out, or they think this horse could be a lot better than his current chase mark. Either way, I have to have an interest in the Welsh National, and I'm convinced he is the best longshot.

Nico De Boinville has been booked for Malystic at Kempton (2.30). Malystic has really been below par so far this season, but last season he had bits and pieces of good form, including when beating Elixir De Nutz at Ayr. He's now 9lbs better off with Elixir on that run, so if returning to his very best, perhaps he can out-run these odds. Malystic did come to form this time of year in December 2022 too which bodes well. I'm sticking with him for a sporting interest, as I don't think he's a bad horse on his day, and the hood being applied may help. He's up against some big guns here though, and it'll be tough. If he's there with a chance at the business end, that'll do for me.
 
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Marb said:
Welsh National - Charlie Uberalles, falls into the 'could be anything' category.
At least longshot backers should get some sort of run for our money, as he usually likes to be up there. I am only taking his two chase wins as being anywhere near his true potential, where he made all and stayed on well at Perth, (yes, I said it, Perth). Either trainer and owners of this horse are there to enjoy the day out, or they think this horse could be a lot better than his current chase mark. Either way, I have to have an interest in the Welsh National, and I'm convinced he is the best longshot.
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I just backed this and then came on to put it up and found you had beaten me to it.
I agree with what you said,"could be anything"
Hope it can carry both of us.
 
My Hewick docket rides onto
Blade Runner Welsh National
Real Steel Paddy Power Chase.
Both have course form and a recent run over hurdles to sharpen their minds.

The former has won 3m4.5f at Plumpton , the latter this race last year off 2 lb less.
Selection of both thanks to Baldeagle , who will be hoarse by 4pm tomorrow if both look like being in the shake up; we are bad enough this evening.
Driving to Leopardstown together Thursday we may well be conversing by text !
A First World problem if ever there was one.
 
Two (to begin with :lol:) in the Welsh National:

Only The Bold 40/1, 6 places, BOG - joint top on my figures so can't not back it.

Ideo Madrik 125/1 ditto - stablemate of OTB but was getting very big ratings in France as a 4yo over 4 miles. Has presumably had issues since coming to Pipe but they tend not to buy crap and I imagine this one will start to come good at some point, in which case I want to be with it if the price is big.
 
Leo 3.00 - Run Wild Fred 28/1, 6 places - hacked up in the Troytown off a similar mark a couple of years back and lightly raced since.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two (to begin with :lol:) in the Welsh National:

Only The Bold 40/1, 6 places, BOG - joint top on my figures so can't not back it.

Ideo Madrik 125/1 ditto - stablemate of OTB but was getting very big ratings in France as a 4yo over 4 miles. Has presumably had issues since coming to Pipe but they tend not to buy crap and I imagine this one will start to come good at some point, in which case I want to be with it if the price is big.
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Iceo Madrik doesn't run.
 
Marb said:
Lingfield 12.00. Dynamic Talent catches my eye at 20/1 or thereabouts on the early show with Bet 365. This horse is now around a stone lower in the ratings than when he won twice, at this track Lingfield, and then at Wolverhampton subsequent to that. He beat a horse called Papa Cocktail that day at Lingfield, who is a horse that notched up a treble on the bounce during the summer, so I think that was fair form. This is only a class six, so although it is a concern that Dynamic Talent has been slowly away from the gates the past few times, maybe he is worth another go. His best performances have come when up on the pace, so I could know my fate pretty early on in the race, although 20/1 compensates us for that worry about being slow at the start. With a bit of luck he'll be a lot sharper out the stalls on this occasion.
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Went and won at Southwell tonight, 8/1. Funny game this.
 
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