The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Bad luck DO

It’s comical that the predicted 123 published on the RP app right underneath the article saying Beaufort was scratched still has him in 2nd place. Clearly the prediction dates from a few days ago but you’d expect our so-called premier racing newspaper to have updated it

Lazy to$$ers


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Two longshots for the Coral Gold Cup.

Bill Baxter, 20/1, 6 places, BOG - I was really taken with the way he won the Topham and he comes into this a second-season novice with plenty of improvement possible. He jumped well at Aintree. Stamina has to be taken on trust but his best run over hurdles was over this kind of trip and he ran over 3m as a pointer.

Max Flamingo 50/1, 6 places, BOG - this one is more left-field. Consistency and reliability wouldn't be the first two qualities you'd think of with him but he was only 10/1 for the 2022 Irish National off 144 (so possibly higher over here) and is off 140 now. He really shouldn't even be coming over based on his form of last season and this one so far so why are they coming? Could it be he's thought somewhere close to his older form? At the price I'm happy to pay a small fee to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two longshots for the Coral Gold Cup.

Bill Baxter, 20/1, 6 places, BOG - I was really taken with the way he won the Topham and he comes into this a second-season novice with plenty of improvement possible. He jumped well at Aintree. Stamina has to be taken on trust but his best run over hurdles was over this kind of trip and he ran over 3m as a pointer.

Max Flamingo 50/1, 6 places, BOG - this one is more left-field. Consistency and reliability wouldn't be the first two qualities you'd think of with him but he was only 10/1 for the 2022 Irish National off 144 (so possibly higher over here) and is off 140 now. He really shouldn't even be coming over based on his form of last season and this one so far so why are they coming? Could it be he's thought somewhere close to his older form? At the price I'm happy to pay a small fee to find out.
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With you on the first one, DO. Posted this mid-week:

Have had a go at Bill Baxter at 20/1, though only a small bet as I'm not sure if he is a confirmed runner.

He has a 14lbs pull with Mahler Mission for 10L in the Colin Parker, and whilst he's raced mainly over intermediate trips over fences, he had a couple of 3m+ runs over hurdles which suggest he has a reasonable chance of seeing this out. He should come on from Carlisle, he's generally a safe jumper, he goes on pretty-much any ground, he has a feather-weight if Ahoy Senor stays in, and I like prominent runners who stay out of trouble for this race.
 
I knew it had been mentioned earlier in the week, GH, but, as I said in my reply to Tanlic on the cleaning thread, I tend not to search through the site for stuff.

Definitely thinking along similar lines.
 
Bill Baxter 8th typically when I had 7 places. Ran well enough but didn’t really get home which was always the danger


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Lingfield 12.00. Dynamic Talent catches my eye at 20/1 or thereabouts on the early show with Bet 365. This horse is now around a stone lower in the ratings than when he won twice, at this track Lingfield, and then at Wolverhampton subsequent to that. He beat a horse called Papa Cocktail that day at Lingfield, who is a horse that notched up a treble on the bounce during the summer, so I think that was fair form. This is only a class six, so although it is a concern that Dynamic Talent has been slowly away from the gates the past few times, maybe he is worth another go. His best performances have come when up on the pace, so I could know my fate pretty early on in the race, although 20/1 compensates us for that worry about being slow at the start. With a bit of luck he'll be a lot sharper out the stalls on this occasion.
 
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Having backed DARG for the CGC at 66/1 I wanted to get another longshot onside at similar odds ahead of tomorrow's racing.

Unfortunately, the horse in question isn't quoted in the CGC betting so I'm naming it here in case it goes and wins tomorrow and ends up getting a quote of less than half that :lol:

The horse in question is Coko Beach, due out in the Becher. My reasoning is that in winning the Troytown off the same kind of mark it would have in the UK it still managed to beat a load of horses that would be running off around 6lbs higher over here. It's off 162 tomorrow after that win and I quite fancy it. That would mean it would need to be north of a 169 horse so the same logic applies as to DARG in terms of placing off that kind of mark. (Synchronised won the CGC when rated 167.)

Elliott is likely to be mob-handed in the race with horses that are already prominent in the betting but maybe this one is surprising him a wee bit.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Having backed DARG for the CGC at 66/1 I wanted to get another longshot onside at similar odds ahead of tomorrow's racing.

Unfortunately, the horse in question isn't quoted in the CGC betting so I'm naming it here in case it goes and wins tomorrow and ends up getting a quote of less than half that :lol:

The horse in question is Coko Beach, due out in the Becher. My reasoning is that in winning the Troytown off the same kind of mark it would have in the UK it still managed to beat a load of horses that would be running off around 6lbs higher over here. It's off 162 tomorrow after that win and I quite fancy it. That would mean it would need to be north of a 169 horse so the same logic applies as to DARG in terms of placing off that kind of mark. (Synchronised won the CGC when rated 167.)

Elliott is likely to be mob-handed in the race with horses that are already prominent in the betting but maybe this one is surprising him a wee bit.
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Coko Beach remains in one of my trackers. Not too sure of the reason for that but he must have run well as a youngster once.

I was really annoyed with myself when he popped up in the Troytown (at 20/1 I think) without a penny of mine on

Good luck DO but I couldn’t see him anywhere near CGC level


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Lingfield 1.35 - Clondaw Robin is outsider of the field, and his last season wasn't the greatist. However, his record second time out, after a break off the track since 2019, reads 1234, which I think is quite eye catching. He knows this place well, and his comeback run over hurdles here last time was half decent. Hopefully he won't be as keen this time. I'm having a dabble at 25/1 with the three each way places on offer. The favourite looks strong, but apart from that I think this horse can run well.
 
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Marb said:
Lingfield 1.35 - Clondaw Robin is outsider of the field. and his last season wasn't the greatist. However, his record second time out, after his summer off reads 1234, which I think is quite eye catching. He knows this place well, and his comeback run over hurdles here last time was half decent. Hopefully he won't be as keen this time. I'm having a dabble at 25/1 with the three each way places on offer. The favourite looks strong, but apart from that I think this horse can run well.
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29/1 4 places with B365
 
I can't bet with them anymore, Beef. A long story..good info for anyone interested though.
 
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chaumi said:
Good spot, Marb. Jumped like a stag, mainly. Only the winner could go with him.
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Yeah ran well didn't he. Looks as if he bumped into one on an upward curve.

Clondaw Robin was entered for Plumpton on Monday earlier, in a class five handicap hurdle.

See what the opposition is like, but he could be there or thereabouts at the business end again, in the form he's now in.
 
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Yeah, he could well run well next time as well, Marb. But there's some cloudy evidence he might be a '2nd run back from a break and that's it' horse. Possibly not wise to take a less than double figure price next time.
 
Good point, Chaum. I think the encouraging thing was they tryed different tactics and the horse was willing to try and make all. He pulled 13 lengths clear of the third. I reckon either several horses really underperformed, or as I suspect, he really bumped into an unexposed and improving type. I don't recall seeing the making all trend in his form to date. It appeared until now he was a hold up horse. Perhaps they have found the key to him, getting him up there front running, and he can win on Monday. We'll see though. I won't bank on it but I might just keep the faith come Monday.
 
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Two I think are overpriced in the Massey-Ferguson:

Do Your Job 25/1, five places
Grandeur D'Ame, 25/1, four places

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And in the 2.25 - Rapper 35/1, 4 places (Bet365)
 
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