The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Have I missed something? I backed Vicctorino today at Ascot on Betfair. He was 12s when I backed him when I got in at lunchtime. But he ended up winning at 20s. Formerly the odds would have automatically paid out to the SP regardless. I’ve been trying to read up on BOG but got confused. Is it only certain races? Do I have to click something else?

Bit peed off!
 
jinnyj said:
Have I missed something? I backed Vicctorino today at Ascot on Betfair. He was 12s when I backed him when I got in at lunchtime. But he ended up winning at 20s. Formerly the odds would have automatically paid out to the SP regardless. I’ve been trying to read up on BOG but got confused. Is it only certain races? Do I have to click something else?

Bit peed off!
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Paddy Power withdrew BOG from my account without telling me. It was only when I contacted them to query why some horse I’d backed at 50/1 wasn’t settled at the 100/1 SP that they let on [emoji35]

Also SkyBet don’t pay BOG in extra place races (even if you bet win only) and I think one or two others don’t on each way bets

Things ain’t what they used to be

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Reckon they knocked it on head about 3 weeks ago,Jinny.
Likewise Hills.
 
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Mmmm...really annoyed about this. I guess I was winning too much money so they decided to punish everyone....:lol:
 
Don’t worry, folks. They’ll be fighting for customers when these damn affordability restrictions bite and offers will be two a penny:D
 
I don’t get BOG with my WHill account any more. I get an enhanced odds offer on each bet instead but I’d rather have BOG.I thought, on tv today that WHill said they still did BOG but I might have misheard.
 
Off the top of my head I can't remember which bookie is playing which silly buggers and I haven't dome much betting for a couple of weeks (basically retired from studying form in detail about three weeks ago so betting very little since) but I usually look for the tick at oddschecker just to make sure.

Sky definitely don't do BOG with their extra place races (maybe they do with win-only bets).

Some go BOG from 8am on the day, some from 10am. Coral (and, I think, Ladbroke) also go BOG from the 48h dec stage.

Betvictor withdrew all 'concessions' from me about five years ago so I emptied my account and I haven't bet with them since. I'm not sure I was ahead overall with them.

It's in my mind that some (Hills, eg?) don't always go BOG. Maybe 'cos they're offering enhanced odds or places?

Aftertiming of sorts - so hope you're proud of me, jinnyj - but even after posting two outsiders on the thread (without studying at all ) halfway through the race it occurred to me that the Williams-Deutsch horse was the one to be on. How often do they spring one in these mega handicaps at this course? I couldn't be arsed trying to get another bet on so spent the rest of the race muttering, "Pull up yabasta..." :lol:
 
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Coral are the only major bookie to do BOG from first prices.

BF don't offer BOG if you're on the basic plan paying 2% commission.
 
PP Gold Cup, Saturday - Easy As That 20/1, 4 places (B365) - I haven't studied the form but this one is near the top on adjusted RPRs so would probably be well up my own list. VW's runners have gone well in the big Saturday handicap chases lately and this is her only runner left in. There has to be a good chance this one is highly regarded or at least considered well in off his mark. 16s tops elsewhere and likely to be shorter if declared on Thursday so I want it onside at this stage.
 
Venetia had this in mind for some time, from the stable tour a couple of weeks ago....

"It was nice to get him back on the track last season and he did well over fences, winning at Haydock and Newcastle, and even his last run at Sandown wasn't that bad. He's entered in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and will start off at two and a half miles, but we'll step him up to three at some stage which I think will suit. I've always liked him and hopefully he can build on last season."
 
I've been trying to second guess where they all go for a week or two now. My 'guesses'...

Easy As That PP

Cloudy Glen The 3m3f race at Cheltenham on Sunday (14 or 16-1 generally)

L'Homme Presse Betfair (but might not be quite ready so King George seems next most likely)

Royal Pagaille Newbury (also entered on Sunday but logic says he won't go there, logically not a big enough prize for RP?) - Cloudy Glen is ready to run and could walk it), entered in the Betfair but surely not quite up to it, can carry weight so Newbury seems logical 25-1


Likely Venetia will throw a spanner in with at least one of them (and/or I've second-guessed them wrong), but EW trebles and an EW 4-fold to low stakes might be fun. Easy As That seems (on paper) to have the hardest task (although not to say the others are 'easy'), if they do all take up those engagements.
 
Desert Orchid said:
PP Gold Cup, Saturday - Easy As That 20/1, 4 places (B365) - I haven't studied the form but this one is near the top on adjusted RPRs so would probably be well up my own list. VW's runners have gone well in the big Saturday handicap chases lately and this is her only runner left in. There has to be a good chance this one is highly regarded or at least considered well in off his mark. 16s tops elsewhere and likely to be shorter if declared on Thursday so I want it onside at this stage.
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Agree with this, I was looking at the race yesterday and was surprised he was as big as he is. There is a lot of rain around this week, we know Venetia's thrive in those conditions and Easy as That looks no exception. Plus she's operating at a 41% strike rate for the past 14 days.

Easy as That hacked up off 133 back in February and then ran no sort of race on his final start of the season when sent off 6/4 fav at Sandown from a mark 1lb higher than he'll have this Saturday.

Previously un-extended in winning all his races over trips in excess of 2m, the Sandown run has to be forgiven but if there was something amiss then he's far too big a price on Saturday.

RP comment was "Easy As That arrived in fine form, his only defeat in three runs over fences coming at the hands of Imperial Cup runner-up Knickerbockerglory on his debut. Raised 9lb for his Newcastle win, he didn't convince with either his jumping or his attitude and was the first beaten. It would be no surprise if something were to come to light."
 
It is possible of course that the Sandown race simply came too quickly. He’d had a decent gap between previous races but just two weeks between winning at Newcastle and running at Sandown


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I like Easy As That too. I have put him in my Ten to Follow as a dark horse on the other thread.

I first recall seeing him winning a mickey mouse race at Chepstow a while ago but he did it well. He's won again since. I can't really add to what's already been said.

Fingers crossed.
 
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chaumi said:
L'Homme Presse Betfair (but might not be quite ready so King George seems next most likely)
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I can't get my head round Venetia. I'm almost thinking she's maybe not one to trust with Grade 1 horses. LP is a top class chaser and he should never go rh again.
 
Euronymous said:
I can't get my head round Venetia. I'm almost thinking she's maybe not one to trust with Grade 1 horses. LP is a top class chaser and he should never go rh again.
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On the face of it, agreed. But VW's recent comments appear to make some veiled reference to a problem causing the LH jumping, and a further veiled suggestion that they put whatever it was right. We shall see, most likely.
 
chaumi said:
On the face of it, agreed. But VW's recent comments appear to make some veiled reference to a problem causing the LH jumping, and a further veiled suggestion that they put whatever it was right. We shall see, most likely.
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Don't buy it. Elliott said the same with Riviere D'etel.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It looks like someone of influence has put up Il Ridotto. It's blue across the board.
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Thoughts:

Notlongtilmay would be the bet if his trainer hadn't decimated his mark by running in the Turners.

I've no trackers in this (Fugitif used to be one) so won't be betting the race. Anyone know why Datsalrightgino isn't going?

The Real Whacker is rated 162. What the actual ****.

If there is a bet it will be a place lay and the likeliest candidate is Angel's Breath. 12/1 should be 40s.
 
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