The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Desert Orchid said:
PP Gold Cup, Saturday - Easy As That 20/1, 4 places (B365) - I haven't studied the form but this one is near the top on adjusted RPRs so would probably be well up my own list. VW's runners have gone well in the big Saturday handicap chases lately and this is her only runner left in. There has to be a good chance this one is highly regarded or at least considered well in off his mark. 16s tops elsewhere and likely to be shorter if declared on Thursday so I want it onside at this stage.
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Pleased to see this has halved today but I've now added another outsider:

Whistleinthedark 22/1*, 5 places - improved 34lbs over five races in what was his first season over fences and is entitled to keep improving into this season. Possibly overpriced because the trainer tends to go under the radar but seasonal form figures of 21111 point to a consistent animal and the trainer deserves credit for that.

*Hills appear to have stopped offering me price boosts :(
 
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3.30 - Moonovercloon 28/1 - ridden only to qualify for the Pertemps Final last time and is likely to be some way better than the bare form. Only 3lbs off second-top on RPRs as things stand. Possibly borderline likely to make the cut in the final so they might want to get his mark up a wee bit before getting it back down again if necessary.
 
Matthew Smith certainly seemed to know what he was doing with La Hacienda. So no big surprise if he has a master plan with Moony.

I have a sneaking suspicion Laura Morgans' Soldier Of Fortune Wild Side Of Life will end up pretty useful, but whether it'll be displayed at this stage and in this field is questionable. Same for the distance, might end up best at 3 miles, although it might well ride closeish to that today?

66-1 reasonable to find out.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Pleased to see this has halved today but I've now added another outsider:

Whistleinthedark 22/1*, 5 places - improved 34lbs over five races in what was his first season over fences and is entitled to keep improving into this season. Possibly overpriced because the trainer tends to go under the radar but seasonal form figures of 21111 point to a consistent animal and the trainer deserves credit for that.

*Hills appear to have stopped offering me price boosts :(
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33/1, 5 places, BOG, this morning. I've gone in again.
 
2.55 Cheltenham
Walking on Glass 28/1 SkyBet 5 places (available at 33s elsewhere but to 4 places) may have a squeak on today’s ground. He looks certain to stay and I’m not sure the same can be said for too many others. He’s probably a few lb too high in the handicap but the rider’s claim will help


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Cheltenham 3.30.

I find it interesting, that Go Dante has been pitched in this race after the wind operation, with tongue tie and cheekpieces now on. Don't get me wrong, he could run a career best here and still only finish 9th or 10th. Sometimes you just never know what might bring the improvement in a horse like Go Dante though. He was too keen once or twice, and looking at his comments in running, I just feel maybe something has stopped him putting it all in to date. His novice hurdle form when fourth behind Stage Star doesn't look that bad now. I feel he has shown some ability on the track, and it's possible he can out run these odds tomorrow. At 40/1 I will have him on my side.
 
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It might be too soft for him but TOO FRIENDLEY is one I've always liked and at 40/1 it will do for me in the Greatwood.
 
Troytown - Royal Thief 50/1, 6 places, BOG - no form study. I just ordered the field by RPRs and this one was near the top at a big price.
 
Ascot Saturday 3.15 - Real Stone 25/1 - Skelton has a 5/1 shot in the race but I'm taking a wee flyer on this one. It was a 130 hurdler the season before last and they might just have been preserving its chase mark last season so it gets in here off 125 when it should have been a 140 novice and 150 this season. It might not even run but hey that's the theory :lol:
 
He's entered at Haydock in the 12.40 on Saturday too, DO. Harry Skelton jocked up on the Racing Post for Haydock. I hope he runs at Ascot for you though.
 
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I'll see if I can cash out, Marb. Never occurred to me that he might have a second engagement!
 
Yes these things happen don't they.

I wonder if you'd give a chance to Malystic. He was a horse I caught right a couple of times last season. I liked the way he did it at Ayr at the end of last season. His form with Elixir De Nutz from that graded race at Newbury has been given a boost with Elixir winning at Exeter. Admittedly Malystic was only fourth of four runners but he wasn't beaten that far. He can be forgiven his first run this season, he would have have needed that.

If it's true he hasn't lost a leg after all then 14/1 might be a fair price.
 
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Have taken the view that both BGM and Shishkin won’t go in the Betfair Chase, which will leave Protektorat, Royal Pagaille, possibly Corach Rambler, and Minella Drama, and I’ve had a small each-way tickle on the last named today at 50/1, to secure two places before anything comes out.

Protektorat is probably a worthy favourite, but I can’t shake the feeling that the race absolutely fell into his lap last season when A Plus Tard blew-out, leaving him to dance home from two exposed handicappers and a geriatric.

Royal Pagaille will like the ground if it stays on the soft side, and he obviously has track form, but in his last few runs he’s looked a pale imitation of the horse than won this a couple of years back, and at 9yo, he might just be on the back-slide already.

Corach Rambler is a horse I have plenty of time for, but he’s probably not going to have much pace to run at in a small field, and my suspicion is that he is a better horse on better ground. You wouldn’t draw a great deal of comfort from his season-opener at Kelso either.

At face-value, the selection has a bit to find with the others, but arguably his best performance to-date was over the longest trip he’s raced over since his pointing days (staying-on winner at Kelso over 2m6f off top-weight in a handicap last season), and whilst that came on Good ground, he has plenty of form on Soft too. He also goes with the benefit of a previous run in the Old Roan (ran out of it in last 2f).

It’s a hard race to suss in advance from a tactical perpective, as there’s no confirmed absolute front-runner, and if this develops into something of a jog-and-sprint, it may suit McCain’s horse best of the lot.

Clearly, there’s a lot would need to click into place, but if the ground remains Heavy, I can’t see Henderson letting Shishkin take his chance (not least when the 1965 Chase is a perfectly viable alternative), and I doubt Nicholls would want the arse dragged out of BGM, with only five weeks to the King George.

If only four go to post, I’ll be perfectly happy to go to war with 50/1, 2-places about Minella Drama.
 
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I was going to follow you in, Grasshopper. But MD is also entered at Ascot, with Brian Hughes up to ride. Maybe they're waiting to see what happens at Haydock and will switch, but BH is also down to ride Malystic at Ascot.

Could be they're more hopeful of taking on Shishskin and Pic over 2m5 than stepping up to 3+ on heavy ground in a Grade 1? Maybe they want to find out if they'll have any chance in a Ryanair?

Hope he goes where you want him, though.
 
Thanks, Chaumi.

I confess I hadn't spotted the double-entry (I was clearly too deep down the rabbit-hole to check!).

McCain has 4 entered at Haydock and just the one at Ascot - maybe that will swing things in my favour. We'll see. Damage won't be too great if it all goes (literally) south. :cool:
 
This quote may be a pointer, highlighting a strong chance that potential Ryanair test theory was wrong....

" I think there is a Grade 1 in him on a certain day when everything is run to suit him. However, he is a bit one dimensional and probably needs to go right-handed over two and a half or two mile six. "
 
Haydock 2.20 - Carbon King 66/1, 5 places - can't be arsed detailing its case but you know I wouldn't be putting it up if I didn't have a reason and it appears to be attracting money.

(This is one of the few races I've been checking out for tomorrow and it is chock-full of over-priced runners. Go into the RP site, order the field by RPRs and you'll see what I mean.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 2.20 - Carbon King 66/1, 5 places - can't be arsed detailing its case but you know I wouldn't be putting it up if I didn't have a reason and it appears to be attracting money.
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Doesn't run, nor does stable-mate Coconut Splash (which I'd also backed in an ew double for the yard) on the same card so I presume the ground is the issue.

I've also backed Schalke (33/1) and Wakool (50/1) in this race purely on the grounds of being over-priced.
 
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Assuming it is a pull because of the ground (for both), you'd have to be thinking it's likely not even true soft ground (or at least Evan thinks so). That might be bad news for my fancy Goshhowposh (possibly one of a few potential Grade 1 level runners, though ground/relative inexperience might not help here)...but...it does suggest both Coconut and Carbon are worth watching for when deeper ground is on the cards (their back form certainly suggests they might like a slog).

CK was one of 4 planned Malinas runners, a pretty good mark of the sire to have four in a single big race over jumps. Snootie, Schalke, and Gosh are the remaining three.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Ascot Saturday 3.15 - Real Stone 25/1 - Skelton has a 5/1 shot in the race but I'm taking a wee flyer on this one. It was a 130 hurdler the season before last and they might just have been preserving its chase mark last season so it gets in here off 125 when it should have been a 140 novice and 150 this season. It might not even run but hey that's the theory :lol:
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Hacked up at Haydock today by 20 lengths, 15/8.

Shooda went to Ascot.
 
Coral Gold Cup, Saturday - Beauport 25/1, 4 places - I'd planned to hold off with any more bets until after the 48h decs are published in the morning but decided to get this one onside now in case people start waking up to it. To be honest, I was hoping for 33s or bigger but Coral/Lads have cut it to 16s today so maybe it has been backed or maybe the compiler has unearthed the same form line as me.

Midnight River is on a lot of short lists and rightly so. But when he won the valuable 3m1f hcap chase, the race before the Grand National, in the spring, Beauport was backed into 9/2 jt-fav and was hack cantering when he came down. It was too far out to say with any degree of certainty that he would have won but, needless to say, he fell because I had started counting my winnings. On Saturday he meets Midnight River on 5lbs better terms so it's possible his price is quite wrong. On top of that, Midnight River was a second-season novice improver then; Beauport is now a second-season novice and with only five chase runs on his CV might be open to a lot of improvement, just the type for this race. I'm open to the argument that he might lack the experience of the ideal second-season novice but plenty of winners haven't had very many chase runs either:

De Rasher Counter 6
Total Recall 7 (Whisper 5)
Native River 7
Many Clouds 7
Bobs Worth 4

So I'm not going to let it put me off.

I'll be mob-handed, as per, but I wanted this onside in case a gamble does develop.

Knowing my luck it will be scratched tomorrow :lol:
 
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