The 2023 'Should be odds-on' thread

Missed your post, reet, and tend not to look at Sunday racing, but in retrospect I think it was an appropriate selection for the thread and would probably have followed you in.

Without digging into the form or seeing the race it might just be one of those performances to write off.
 
I think that qualifies as 'an educational'... almost comical seeing how far away from the horse the whip was being waved.
 
I'm going for a big one here.

York, 2.40 - Spectacular Style 9/1 - The handicapper appears not to have taken too much notice of his penultimate race which he won ridiculously easily on decent ground at Hamilton. It was a low-level affair with only four runners and he was a 1/7 favourite but the pace was strong enough, the third and fourth were already being scrubbed along at the top of the bend (about 5f out) and the jockey was already starting to ease the son of Frankel off from two and a half furlongs out. His next run needs forgiving but they may have had this race in mind. Curtis has a 61% trike rate for Varian this season. If my own ratings, rather than RPRs, are right, he should be odds-on.
 
Hmmm...

Backed into as low as 4/1 but now taken out.

I also had it in a lumpy combo with two others I fancy strongly today so further frustrated.

I suppose I should be philosophical and say if the grounds for taking it out were genuine then I've avoided a loser.
 
Serene Seraph is a really nice type and was absolutely cantering when taking on Skellet at Salisbury.

The way she ran she went straight into my notebook and duly won at odds on next time.

However Skellet***** went into my 5 star notebook and stepped up to 7F I really thought she would be odds on today so I grabbed all the 13/8 only for her to drift.

Can't win them all so if she wins I will still think I got value.
 
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Old saying. The bigger the field the bigger the certainty.

I am pretty sure if Port Erin 2/1 was trained by John and Thady Gosden he'd be 4/7



Gelded and tough as old boots I can't see him being beat if he gets a trouble free round.
 
Saturday, QE2 - Paddington 13/8 - best form and the fewest question marks. I can see him making just about all.

Also...

I've no idea what UK punters and odds compilers have against Mostahdaf. I mentioned him before the POW when he was 28/1 (and should have been favourite) and he was already rated 3lbs higher the odds-on Paddington when running the finish out of him at York. In the Champion Stakes he is 7lbs clear on ORs. Were that an O'Brien horse you wouldn't get odds against but he's 11/2 and that is huge,especially with the race likely to be run on the inner track with better ground.

(The double pays 16/1 which is also stonking value but not necessarily a recommendation for the thread!)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
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I've no idea what UK punters and odds compilers have against Mostahdaf. I mentioned him before the POW when he was 28/1 (and should have been favourite) and he was already rated 3lbs higher the odds-on Paddington when running the finish out of him at York. In the Champion Stakes he is 7lbs clear on ORs. Were that an O'Brien horse you wouldn't get odds against but he's 11/2 and that is huge,especially with the race likely to be run on the inner track with better ground.
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11/2 fifth fav when I backed it this morning, now 3/1 clear fav, as it always should have been.
 
trefflich said:
Wouldn't of beaten the winner imo
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Too early to tell, but the feeling is he’d have breezed in, im not of the same. Thought the jock was actually getting to work at the time whilst the winner was travelling very well still.

I dont buy the Giovinco hype and will be taking him on at all opportunities if there is opposition to do so.
 
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“Giovinco is our future, he’s a lovely, lovely horse.” Lucinda RUSSELL at Carlisle (26/3/23). She’s not one for describing her geese as swans.

I don’t think the race told us anything.
 
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