The 2024 Longshot Thread

3.05 - Lavender Hill Mob 66/1 - on my figures best of the rest outside the front five in the betting. Needs a few of them to underperform but plenty of good horses have been underperforming so far. Probably should be no more than 25/1 anyway. No big hopes, just a wee nibble at potential value.
 
I've taken the blunderbuss (probably with the emphasis on 'blunder') to the Hunt Cup.

In card order:

Bless Him - 25/1, 6 places - the Hays had two in this but Spencer wasn't booked for either; he was booked for this from quite a few days ago. Second-top on my figures on an admittedly slightly tenuous form line but runs well in this kind of race.

Blue For You - 40/1, 6 places - top on my figures. I've felt all season that Goodwood was the plan but he's more likely to run into trouble there and he could arguably win this and defy a small rise for it.

Thunder Ball - 40/1, 6 places - third-top on my figures and a Cole runner here always commands respect.

Regheeb - 40/1, 6 places - taken the other day as mentioned earlier in the thread.

(And I've taken a couple of shorter ones for cover.)
 
O'Meara has made no secret of being sweet on Blue, the current prices look very attractive (50s BF)

He's on record as believing the French horses often need a season before they properly come good, but Mirsky and Padi have both 'clearly' been trained for this. Whatever, they're going to be worth watching for the next year or two.

Having said that, wouldn't surprise any of us to see Blue win doing handsprings, with the other two nearer last to get them down a bit for later on! They are both in the 100s on BF as I type (Padi fluctuating lower a bit more than Mirsky).

The 'problem' with Padi is Sean Levey riding - only one win from 38 for the stable doesn't inspire confidence (as if you could be 'confident' about anything in this race!). But Sean has ridden both Rosallion and Witchy this week already.

Note Padi has a entry in the Magnet.

It's interesting that Maxime Guyon rides Mirsky. He was on board for a 3YO listed race in France where he ran Facteur Cheval to about a couple of lengths, before the move to O'Meara.
 
2.30 - Mighty Eriu 33/1, 5 places - Cromwell has only had one previous runner in this race and it won so I imagine he rates this one in the same ball park. Just an educated guess, though.
 
6.15
Calyxoh 66/1, 5 places - JCH with an outsider at a festival meeting. Loughnane booked.
Artagnan 28/1, 5 places - a Burke longshot for successful owners
 
Yes I hopped on the second last minute too as she was at the start.....she looked fantastic in her coat
 
Tomorrows Duke of Edinburgh handicap. Marahja The Champ is seriously overpriced at 66/1 !
Appreciates good to firm ground. Won 2 big handicaps in those conditions at York last season. Form of both has worked out well.
 
Ascot 5.40.
The Euphrates ran a decent race in the Lingfield Derby Trial. We know the form of that race has worked out. May take a big step forward from that.
50/1 in places. That looks big to me.
 
Scorchio 18.15 25-1 e/w
Beat Kendall Roy (1st reserve I believe) lto, who got track record back in April at Windsor, and has won again since. Only downside had claimers most of the runs so rating of 91 may find him out.
 
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