The 2024 Longshot Thread

4.25 - I always look forward to the Chookie Embra but this year's race looks as tricky as I recall, not helped by Godolphin not having a runner!

Anyway, I've decided my best ploy is to ignore the market leaders and go for a quiver of longshot arrows and hope at least one gets me a return. I think these all have decent chances and I've taken them ew to five places and BOGs.

In card order:

Mandoob 66/1
Cumulonimbus 50/1
Epic Poet 33/1
Struth 40/1
Sheer Rocks 25/1

I might have a go at combining them in a tricast/trifecta :unsure:
 
I'm going mob-handed at the Wokingham too.

Of my long list of eight against the field, five qualify for the thread and I'm backing them all to varying stakes (with a view to drawing 100 points).

In order as they appear on my own ratings table but not necessarily in order of preference:

Woodao 40/1
Chipstead 40/1
Desert Cop 25/1
Torivega 22/1 (25s taken)
Cover Up 20/1

The other three will be cover win-only bets.

I'll be happy to make a profit on the race even if it is only a small one. I just love the mental exercise of these puzzles.
 
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3.45 - Vadream 100/1, 4 places, BOG - well beaten the other day and weak in the market here, as she was then, but her best past OR puts her only 5lbs - less than two lengths - behind today's highest-rated runner (Art Power) and she had Mitbahy behind her earlier this year in the Palace House. The sprint form is all over the shop these days and Fellowes is just the type to have targeted this since Newmarket. It might not be today but she is going to return to form at some point, and probably at a big price.
 
Decided to join Marb with a wee nibble on Shocker (125/1, 4 places) in the opener. Eoin O'Neill has only had one previous runner in this and it won.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.45 - Vadream 100/1, 4 places, BOG - well beaten the other day and weak in the market here, as she was then, but her best past OR puts her only 5lbs - less than two lengths - behind today's highest-rated runner (Art Power) and she had Mitbahy behind her earlier this year in the Palace House. The sprint form is all over the shop these days and Fellowes is just the type to have targeted this since Newmarket. It might not be today but she is going to return to form at some point, and probably at a big price.
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Fvcking 5th :machinegunner:
 
4.25

Mountain Bear 50/1 4 places - not far off the top and probably miles over-priced.
El Bodon 200/1 - JC-H outsider at a festival meeting.
 
Hey, SwannyFred, welcome to the forum and to this thread.

Can I respectfully point out that the 'fun' element of this thread is that selections should be 20/1 or more with at least one bookie (preferably not the diddy ones) at the time of posting.

Dr S is only 5/1 tops but here's hoping it wins for you (y)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hey, SwannyFred, welcome to the forum and to this thread.

Can I respectfully point out that the 'fun' element of this thread is that selections should be 20/1 or more with at least one bookie (preferably not the diddy ones) at the time of posting.

Dr S is only 5/1 tops but here's hoping it wins for you (y)
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Sorry, Desert Orchid, but duly noted for the future.
 
Saturday, Northumberland Plate - Golden Flame 50/1, 4 places - there's a good chance this price won't contract during the week but I thought I'd get on early in case it does.

It's an ex-Johnston horse coming back from two years off so two negatives in there as well.

To balance those out, it was beaten in a photo in a £40k C2 race at Haydock in 2022 off 93, was 25/1 for this race (won by Trueshan) off 95 and is off 87 now.

I don't know the first thing about trainer Deborah Faulkner but her stats seem okay.

The horse will make the cut, currently #20 in the weights with 20 the max field.

If top weight Tashkhan stands its ground GF will be on 8-3 so not out of the weights.

Finding a jockey to do that weight will be difficult so I imagine a female or very light apprentice will be engaged. If Hollie Doyle (7-12) gets the call the price will collapse but I suspect the ride will go to Laura Coughlan (7-12) who I think is also with Archie Watson so can't be bad and she had a decent record at Newcastle last season from not many rides. (She doesn't get many rides full stop.)

It's all ifs, buts, maybes and risks but some sweetie money at long odds at this stage will remind me to get a closer look at the race when time allows.
 
"Golden Flame"

That made me go looking, with the thought that she nearly pulled off the race with Golden Rules last year.

Then I spotted GR's history. Go take a look - a similar long break after leaving Gosden prior to winning a Kempton Class 3 before getting half-lengthed in the Plate.

GF goes straight there. But GR did the business on the first run. Could be that Deborah has the knack of bringing (apparent) 'given-up-on' long-distance runners back. Jockey booking for the Plate will be interesting. Oisin Murphy??
 
Looking at Spirit Mixer myself.
2nd 2 years ago. 8lb lower now.
I'm guessing he may have had injury problems. Lightly raced initially after that effort.
4 races though this year, to get him back up to speed.
Every chance they're having another go.
Can get 50s.
 
Robicheaux said:
Looking at Spirit Mixer myself.
2nd 2 years ago. 8lb lower now.
I'm guessing he may have had injury problems. Lightly raced initially after that effort.
4 races though this year, to get him back up to speed.
Every chance they're having another go.
Can get 50s.
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Took my eye as well.i think DO mentioned it for the Chester cup .
 
Fivethousandtoone in the Chipchase Newcastle 29th June 25-1

Down the field in the Wokingham...

But...

"Towards near side, midfield, not clear run repeatedly when groups merged from over 2f out, not recover (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run)"

Has good Newcastle (hcap) form for the last two winters. May well be up to running very well in an AW Group 3 that might yet cut up a bit as well

Immediate worry - not a particularly long gap from Ascot to this...

But...

1. Was eased (to my eye) from about one and a half out last Saturday, and heavily eased over the final 150 yards or so (possibly with this race in mind).
2. Has a little history of coming back in 10 days to run a strong race at Newc Feb 23. Half-lengthed by Diligent Harry after fluffing the start.

Both suggesting a 7-day turnaround could be doable.


The double looks fun :-) Fivethousand/Desert Flame 1325-1 for the win, and a fair whack for both placing (which doesn't look impossible on paper)
 
Rathgar is interesting me. He's only had the one run on the A/W, so Charlie Johnston surely thinks he's more scope for improvement on this surface. He was promising at the very start of his career, placing in a decent maiden at Goodwood. He went off the boil after that, but after being gelded at the end of last season, he's been running much more promisingly so far this season. A third to Kyle Of Lochalsh doesn't look too bad now. I feel Rathgar is coming to the boil at the right time for this race. I haven't forgotten how this yard landed the Cambridgshire with Majestic, when stepping him up in grade at the time, after I'd backed it the week or two before when it was beaten in a lesser race. At No.26 currently in the list, I reckon Rathgar might just sneak in the Pitmans Derby. 33/1 looks a big ante post price.
 
chaumi said:
"Golden Flame"

That made me go looking, with the thought that she nearly pulled off the race with Golden Rules last year.

Then I spotted GR's history. Go take a look - a similar long break after leaving Gosden prior to winning a Kempton Class 3 before getting half-lengthed in the Plate.

GF goes straight there. But GR did the business on the first run. Could be that Deborah has the knack of bringing (apparent) 'given-up-on' long-distance runners back. Jockey booking for the Plate will be interesting. Oisin Murphy??
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And this post got me looking too - at Golden Rules. I had totally forgotten about it. Isn't this the one that was backed from long odds into favouritism in the run up to the day? It was 7/2 tops on the morning of the race.

I wrote that morning:

Golden Rules Is very lightly raced and couId be on a steep curve, at least that’s what the betting is suggesting, but I’m not really seeing it and I’m not at all sure he should be favourite let alone as short as he is, and you have to wonder why Oppenheimer and the Gosdens would get rid of him.

It's hard to imagine GF also being on a steep curve but I'm finding the coincidence more than intriguing! Murphy can't do less than 8-6, by the way, so the weights would need to go up.
 
There was a fair bit of chat in the media about GR in the run-up to last year's race, which probably contributed to the price on the day.

Here's something we didn't know...(or I didn't, anyway)...

Ante-post favourite Golden Rules ruled out of Northumberland Plate > Australia and International Horse Racing news updated daily

Australia and International Horse Racing news updated daily, www.thoroughbrednews.com.au
www.thoroughbrednews.com.au www.thoroughbrednews.com.au

Take note of the last line. Seemingly direct from the stable.

Talk is talk. But clearly DF knows what it takes. Their apparent confidence for a worthwhile run might just not be fully misplaced! Perhaps, around a month or so ago, they had hopes and dreams of a 1-2!


Extra info....GR is owned by one Gareth Cheshire. The price last year can be directly attributed to him going viral on FB with a 'get on, he will win' post. Went all over the internet. Not so much chat about GF this year. But GF is actually owned by the Faulkners.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Northumberland Plate - Golden Flame 50/1, 4 places - there's a good chance this price won't contract during the week but I thought I'd get on early in case it does.

It's an ex-Johnston horse coming back from two years off so two negatives in there as well.

To balance those out, it was beaten in a photo in a £40k C2 race at Haydock in 2022 off 93, was 25/1 for this race (won by Trueshan) off 95 and is off 87 now.

I don't know the first thing about trainer Deborah Faulkner but her stats seem okay.

The horse will make the cut, currently #20 in the weights with 20 the max field.

If top weight Tashkhan stands its ground GF will be on 8-3 so not out of the weights.

Finding a jockey to do that weight will be difficult so I imagine a female or very light apprentice will be engaged. If Hollie Doyle (7-12) gets the call the price will collapse but I suspect the ride will go to Laura Coughlan (7-12) who I think is also with Archie Watson so can't be bad and she had a decent record at Newcastle last season from not many rides. (She doesn't get many rides full stop.)

It's all ifs, buts, maybes and risks but some sweetie money at long odds at this stage will remind me to get a closer look at the race when time allows.
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Good news and bad news...

The good news: Duran Fentiman is listed as riding Golden Flame and he can do 8-2.

The bad news: the application of penalties to some recent winners has pushed GF down to #22 on the list so I really need two to come out when the final decs are made tomorrow morning and I'm not confident it will happen. I assume there will be a reserve system so I might get a 24-hour stay of execution but I'm not holding my breath.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good news and bad news...

The good news: Duran Fentiman is listed as riding Golden Flame and he can do 8-2.

The bad news: the application of penalties to some recent winners has pushed GF down to #22 on the list so I really need two to come out when the final decs are made tomorrow morning and I'm not confident it will happen. I assume there will be a reserve system so I might get a 24-hour stay of execution but I'm not holding my breath.
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Oh that's painful. There's a fair enough chance Pledge won't run. But it's not easy to see another one from the rest.

Now we know why they left him in the Consolation, with Tom Eaves nominated to ride.
 
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