The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
That's interesting. My card transcribes the RPRs for the races and the WH site uses RPRs but my card didn't have a rating for JJR (which is why I checked back through its career form for a figure). Very pleased for you that you got it.
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A guy on a small forum that I'm part of does computer generated selections and put 4 up for the Lanzarote and had the first 3.
So j j Reilly must have been highly rated somewhere.
 
Yes. If I get time I'll have another look. I must have missed something!

(This is the kind of thing that happens when you only do stuff half-heartedly but I did look back through its RPRs for its best older form. Maybe something back in its Irish form, since my ratings tend to be 5-10lbs higher than theirs.)
 
Henderson has about 7 entered in the Betfair hurdle including 3 of the first 4 in the betting but
FLEET STREET is too big at 25/1.
I backed this horse at Cheltenham in the 2022 county hurdle and it got beat just over a lenght by STATE MAN off 142.
Now dropped to 141 and last time finished 3rd 11L behind CONSTITUTIONAL HILL off levels.
Mightnt run but 25s is worth the risk for me.
 
Outsider said:
Henderson has about 7 entered in the Betfair hurdle including 3 of the first 4 in the betting but
FLEET STREET is too big at 25/1.
I backed this horse at Cheltenham in the 2022 county hurdle and it got beat just over a lenght by STATE MAN off 142.
Now dropped to 141 and last time finished 3rd 11L behind CONSTITUTIONAL HILL off levels.
Mightnt run but 25s is worth the risk for me.
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Agree 100%.

When's the next forfeit stage? I like Fleet Street and 25s is tempting but I think I'll hold off for now.

Interesting to see what Gary Moore has entered. Not the ones I was expecting so he must think the ones he has entered have serious chances. I was also waiting for Aucunrisque for this but he isn't entered. He's been disappointing so maybe last year's race got to him. The trainer has a smashing record in the race so it's also interesting to see that he only has one (I think) still in it.
 
Chel 3.00 - Guard Your Dreams 28/1 - only two places but it doesn't look a deep race and the horse holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle. He hasn't been seen since unseating when hampered at the last in the 2022 Aintree Hurdle but he'd have finished in front of the 149-rated Monmiral and the 150-rated McFabulous so if he's anywhere near that level here he only has the mares to worry about and mares can be inconsistent. Happy to have a wee pop.
 
1.15 - Champagne Mystery 50/1, 4 places, BOG - joint third-top on my figures so I have to wonder if the price is quite wrong. Tom George takes over from his French-based son and they've brought over the French jockey.

Edit to add:

Don 3.15 - Charlie Uberalles 66/1, 6 places, BOG - Joint fourth-top on my figures so again is he over-priced?

I've taken him in a very speculative ew three-cross with the other two today.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
1.15 - Champagne Mystery 50/1, 4 places, BOG - joint third-top on my figures so I have to wonder if the price is quite wrong. Tom George takes over from his French-based son and they've brought over the French jockey.
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Fifth, and I thought the rider took things a bit easily after getting into contention. The TV team sounded mildly critical of the ride he gave the horse.
 
Desert Orchid said:
1.15 - Champagne Mystery 50/1, 4 places, BOG - joint third-top on my figures so I have to wonder if the price is quite wrong. Tom George takes over from his French-based son and they've brought over the French jockey.

Edit to add:

Don 3.15 - Charlie Uberalles 66/1, 6 places, BOG - Joint fourth-top on my figures so again is he over-priced?

I've taken him in a very speculative ew three-cross with the other two today.
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3rd 66/1. Well done!
 
Cheers, moe.

Unashamedly going into aftertiming mode, my main bet was Annual Invictus so it was a good race for me (for a change).
 
Didn’t back him but was cheering him home. Didn’t want him to get collared on the line.
 
I had a wild arra at a 230/1 chance in the Supreme a couple of weeks back. Mullins had entered Gold Dancer in the 2m G1 Novice at the DRF. He’s yet to run in GB or Ireland but was bought by Giggi last May for €230,000 after winning at Compiegne. He’s by Doctor Dino (State Man, Sharjah, Sceau Royal, Fil D’or, Jazzy Matty :-) et al) and out of the dam of Al Dancer and Mullins spoke positively about him in his stable tour. May turn out to be a dud but if he runs well at the DRF then he won’t be 230/1 in March, assuming he’s targeted ar the race (Sire’s offspring don’t normally excel over further than 2m) as Giggi aren’t known for targeting the Supreme but the price was worth a punt.

Now been declared on Sunday
 
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One of my Dark Horses for the TTF, Lee.

My other Dark Horse is Jit Langy (took 226 for Supreme) is also decd.

Hoping for big performances.
 
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I had big expectations about MAXXUM after he won but the hcapper hammered him.
Tried chasing and tomorrow reverts to hcaps and with a 7lb claimers is back on a winning mark.
At 25/1 I have to stick with it as it's a €60,000 race.
 
Sandown 3.45 - Moroder 33/1, 3 places (B365) - not seen to best effect so far this season but had a breathing issue last time and wears a first-time tongue-tie. Only 1lb off the top on my figures and his general profile last season was that of an improver. The price looks all wrong to me.

I have another few lined up/already backed and will put them up once I've got it sorted in my head what I want to say about them.


Edit:
I've edited the above to correct it to 3 places. I misread the caption :o
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 3.45 - Moroder 33/1, 5 places (B365) - not seen to best effect so far this season but had a breathing issue last time and wears a first-time tongue-tie. Only 1lb off the top on my figures and his general profile last season was that of an improver. The price looks all wrong to me.

I have another few lined up/already backed and will put them up once I've got it sorted in my head what I want to say about them.
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This one has popped up on my tracker as well and has his ideal conditions tomorrow, had to follow!
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Kealey has jusgt tipped Moroder in the Racing Post as well, we can't all be wrong!!
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Oh yes we can! :lol:

PK originally put up Castle Robin for the race, convinced that it would run here rather than take up its Musselburgh engagement. It comes up north.

Moroder is blue across the board, 20s tops.
 
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Grasshopper said:
One of my Dark Horses for the TTF, Lee.

My other Dark Horse is Jit Langy (took 226 for Supreme) is also decd.

Hoping for big performances.
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Nice Grass. Fingers crossed one or both of them at least goes close on Sunday. I didn’t want to see Slade Steel in here as have him for the Baring Bingham but I remember HdB saying he’d prefer to drop down in trip as opposed to stepping up (Nathaniel Lacy) so seeing him strong at the finish on Sunday would be nice. The Elliott horses I’m luke warm about and on the fence about Ballyburn right now.
 
Some other pops at today's races:

Muss 2.15 – Via Dolorosa 66/1, 4 places – I have to take a punt on this. It has raced in France a couple of times this season winning at Auteuil in October. The French handicapper appears to rate the form and back in March ’22 it was put up to 137 (122 here) for a wide-margin win under a claimer. On top of that, Sophie Leech has only had two runners in this type of race at this track in the last ten years and both have won. I’ve also backed the each-way double with Madara at Leopardstown.

Leo -3.00 – Ailie Rose 20/1, 7 places (Sky) & Yeats Star 28/1, 6 places (B3) – AR is top on my figures while YS is a first-season novice with potential. I want them onside at the prices.

Edit:

Meant to include Rebel Gold (4.10L) 22/1 - just looks a tad over-priced to me.
 
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Maybe needs it bottomless. Gave up the outside to no one but was beaten at halfway.

66s after all and they can't all win :lol:
 
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