The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Kicking myself a bit. I had Lord Erskine joint second top but opted not to back it because I fancied too many of the younger horses to improve past the 11yo whose form is over further.

I suspect there was a bit of a pace collapse in the race.
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And me.i thought the same.€90,000 and an eleven yr old wins.
 
Outsider said:
Call me Lyreen 350L 40/1 6 places.

One of JPs 7 runners and GE has a few in it

I want By your side to place obviously as I've got it with my 2 from saturday.but it's worse off with the 2 that's beat him the last twice because Jack Kennedy takes over.
The claimer who rode Maxxum was winning 3 in a row and rides GE/Jp horse Magic Tricks who looks to have a chance being 9lb better off with common practice and BYS.

Back in 2022 Call Me Lyceen won the Liffey off 138 beating Magic tricks and the hcapper put him up and with tax carried 152 in the county giving weight to state man.
Then it was sent chasing. After 5 months off he returned in a hcap and finished nearly last on heavy going.
Tomorrow with Danny Gilligans claim he runs off 142.
Of course this could be a stepping stone for future races but it's a €90,000 race so at 40/1 I will have a little on.
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I'm going to stick with it.never tried today.drifted to 66s.
And By your side got badly hampered and never got into it.
 
Just getting in before Outsider... :lol:

Betfair Hurdle - Our Champ 40/1 - I mentioned this one when the weights came out and haven't forgotten about it. Chris Gordon is no mean target trainer and has a good record in this race from few runners. The boy also did Annual Invictus no harm at Doncaster last week. There has to be a chance he'll drift before the end of the week, in which case I can always go in again. I'll probably back a few more on the day but this seems a good place to start.
 
No idea if he is an intended runner or not, but have chanced Gary Moore's top-weight Hansard each-way at a boosted 22/1 (Ladbrokes) in the Betfair Hurdle.

A quick review of past results suggests that the lower the top-weight, the better the 11-0+ horses seem to do, and I like horses who race handy around a track like Newbury.

He doesn't quite qualify for the thread (not yet anyway), but I have taken an each-way piece of the 16/1 available about Amarillo Sky in the Game Spirit. He likes to be fresh, gets between 4 and 6lbs from the principals, and there are at least two in the race who I reckon could blow-out completely. If he gets any bigger, I'm likely to go in again.
 
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:nono:

20/1 or more only, please :)

Paul Kealy has headlined Spirit d'A in the Weekender too. It's also on my short-list of 20 :lol:

I see the bastartin bookies have shortened 8 of the front 11 in the betting. Maybe they've got word of what's going to be scratched in the morning (a bit like my baws) but it isn't a good look.
 
In the what’s new? list I just saw the And me.extra weight now. and thought you must have been at the doughnuts :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Betfair Hurdle - Our Champ 40/1 -
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Interesting quote from Chris Gordon from Oct last year...

27Oct23 Cheltenham (16.5Gd, RPR 131)
I came here pretty confident. I'm usually a pessimistic bugger but I rode Our Champ myself in a bit of work the other day with Aucunrisque and he went extremely well. We don't usually have them off the bridle but Aucunrisque was struggling and I weighed two stone more than the lad on him. There's loads of options for him. I might look at those novice Graded races as time goes on, he's a very experienced jumper and races like the Dovecote could be an option. He's got plenty of pace - Chris Gordon, trainer.

Given CG certainly knew what he was doing with Aucunrisque last year, you could read quite a lot into that around Our Champ's chances for the race this year, if he's spot on.

I'll be there, I'll watch out for the wink from Our Champ in the parade ring. But I suspect a fair few others might be winking, too :)
 
Yes, I read that in the form comments after I'd backed it and it did make me feel a fair bit better than I already did.

It's on 124 and I reckon the average winner of the Dovecote would be mid-140s?
 
chaumi said:
Interesting quote from Chris Gordon from Oct last year...

27Oct23 Cheltenham (16.5Gd, RPR 131)
I came here pretty confident. I'm usually a pessimistic bugger but I rode Our Champ myself in a bit of work the other day with Aucunrisque and he went extremely well. We don't usually have them off the bridle but Aucunrisque was struggling and I weighed two stone more than the lad on him. There's loads of options for him. I might look at those novice Graded races as time goes on, he's a very experienced jumper and races like the Dovecote could be an option. He's got plenty of pace - Chris Gordon, trainer.

Given CG certainly knew what he was doing with Aucunrisque last year, you could read quite a lot into that around Our Champ's chances for the race this year, if he's spot on.

I'll be there, I'll watch out for the wink from Our Champ in the parade ring. But I suspect a fair few others might be winking, too :)
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I had a good look at this fella last night when he was 40/1 but didn’t take the plunge in view of the heavy rain that’s forecast for Newbury in the next couple of days. His two wins in September/October were on good ground and he’s struggled a bit on softer. Already good/soft at Newbury and if the forecast is anywhere near right then it will be testing so I’m avoiding. Would definitely be on if good ground expected


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In case it does go soft soft as predicted, have a re-look at Faivoir's County (as if anyone needs an excuse to rewatch a County!!) . See where he came from over the last two - on fairly soft ground. That was a tough performance. Has he got one more big race left as a 9 year old?? I suspect Skelton thinks he does, and maybe if Bridget rides that'll be an indicator. 40-1 currently, but with no jockey declared yet there's a risk.

It looks like L'eau Du Sud is contracting, in from 25's about a week ago when I last looked. It could be they worked out what happened in the Greatwood (for which he was an 11-1 shot at the off).

PS extra thought - could be Skelton is holding off on Faivoir till certain of the ground.
And PPS - Anyone thinking they might take a chance and go for the win, take the BF 100 instead :)
And PPPS - didn't realise, Bridget may not be riding any more.
 
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Hansard not declared. Back to the drawing board.

Re Faivoir, Skelton has 7lbs claimer Miss Heidi Palin jocked-up. Hard to see the pilot having enough experience to win a race like this, and more likely the run is to get a couple knocked off the rating for another go in the County (imo).
 
I quite like the look of Donnacha right at the bottom of the weights and was glad to see he made the cut. He's very consistent and never really ran a bad race, and I think there's more to come. He wouldn't even be running if more high rated horses had been in this, so his connections can thank their lucky stars he gets to run. He can run well each way. I'll have a saver on Go Dante aswell who beat him that day at Cheltenham and could improve again aswell.
 
Grasshopper said:
Hansard not declared. Back to the drawing board.

Re Faivoir, Skelton has 7lbs claimer Miss Heidi Palin jocked-up. Hard to see the pilot having enough experience to win a race like this, and more likely the run is to get a couple knocked off the rating for another go in the County (imo).
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Same MO as last year for Faivoir then when he got dropped 4lb for running no race in this


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Skelton's (and our) risk is it's a toss up whether the County will run on good or soft and, as we know, the odds are it's more likely to be good than soft in a month's time. But we'll see, the celebrations will be fun if it comes off :)
 
YORKSEA. 100/1. Refused to race the last twice.4th last year.Gary Moore says he changed the work rider and its sweetened it up.
Getting his reason for improvement in early.:lol:
 
Outsider said:
YORKSEA. 100/1. Refused to race the last twice.4th last year.Gary Moore says he changed the work rider and its sweetened it up.
Getting his reason for improvement in early.:lol:
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Yes. definitely worth some sickness insurance in case the refusals are part of a grand plan.:)
 
Knickerbocker Glory 33/1 Betfair Hurdle
Won a decent race at Ascot with his head in his chest and then quickly turned out for the Greatwood where he ran well for a long way, only weakening going to the last. I remember thinking before that race that it might come too soon as he’d always had a decent gap between races previously.
Goes well fresh and a break of nearly 3 months should see him to better effect.

In any case 33/1 just looks wrong


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viking said:
Knickerbocker Glory 33/1 Betfair Hurdle
Won a decent race at Ascot with his head in his chest and then quickly turned out for the Greatwood where he ran well for a long way, only weakening going to the last. I remember thinking before that race that it might come too soon as he’d always had a decent gap between races previously.
Goes well fresh and a break of nearly 3 months should see him to better effect.

In any case 33/1 just looks wrong
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The booking of Liam Harrison, even though he's 1-2 for the yard this season, was putting me off because Tristan Durrell was available but I see that he's now engaged. I presume he was supposed to be going to Warwick for something better fancied.
 
Yes the fact Tristan Durrell now rides with his 3lb claim was what swung it for me too


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