The 2024 Longshot Thread

Our old friend Dads Lad runs in Amateur Handicap Galway 7.10 Monday.
This has been his target since returning to training post injury.
Whether he retains his full ability is open to question but hope springs eternal .
20/1 plus for the ew enthusiast who likes horses for courses.
 
Wednesday, 1.50 - Two v the field (covered by a win bet on FD)

Voyage 20/1, 4 places
Clockmaker 25/1, 4 places

Voyage is the one I mentioned after the Derby when it finished first past the post with no jockey. I know it amused a few on here when I put it up next time but I'm happy to strike a line through that run. It's off 92 and they wouldn't have run it at Epsom if they didn't think it was at least 105.

Clockmaker is one of three in the race for the owners and Spencer is their go-to jockey. The trainers' riding arrangements might trump the owners' wishes but Clockmaker ran very well against Hidden Law which became the Godolphin man Derby hope and I suspect his two subsequent runs were about getting him this handicap mark (80).

I'm happy to pay to find out on both counts. I might even try the exactas and trifecta.

:)
 
Goodwood 1.50 I'm hoping Open Secret can really improve here for stepping up in class with a faster pace to go along at. I'm also kind of guessing Johnston may have plotted him for this. The horse has been consistent at a lower level, without getting his head in front. The first time visors might help bring about the improvement required.
 
Marb said:
Goodwood 1.50 I'm hoping Open Secret can really improve here for stepping up in class with a faster pace to go along at. I'm also kind of guessing Johnston may have plotted him for this. The horse has been consistent at a lower level, without getting his head in front. The first time visors might help bring about the improvement required.
Click to expand...

Joint third top on my ratings, visored for the first time and the yard targets the meeting. I'll probably join you in the morning.
 
3.00 Fuji Mountain was sent off big odds for the Windsor Castle but hung badly left, so all things considered the fact he finished 11th of 27 horses was actually a good effort. He's since come out and won a novice event at Chester quite nicely. I just think he's a joke of a big price here tomorrow at 66s or thereabouts, and were he with a higher profile trainer he'd be a third of the current price. We saw massive prices get in the frame in the 2 year old races at Royal Ascot, and maybe this trend can continue a bit at this meeting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, 1.50 - Two v the field (covered by a win bet on FD)

Voyage 20/1, 4 places
Clockmaker 25/1, 4 places
Click to expand...

Voyage ran better but looked to have his limitations exposed. Something went wrong with Clockmaker after dropping quite a bit in the betting. Another day for him, maybe.

FD covered me for the race (@ 13/2).

Open Secret was indeed a Johnston job that ran well at a big price.
 
I've taken a wee interest on Sonny Liston at 28/1 in the Sussex Stakes coming up.

On my figures he rates higher than Maljoom who's only 6/1 and has only 2-4lbs to find on the others. Only two places, though, so no strong expectations; I just think he's overpriced.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Voyage ran better but looked to have his limitations exposed. Something went wrong with Clockmaker after dropping quite a bit in the betting. Another day for him, maybe.

FD covered me for the race (@ 13/2).

Open Secret was indeed a Johnston job that ran well at a big price.
Click to expand...
Yes a shame Open Secret tired at the finish. I think Hills only paid 3 places. This went the way of all good each way bets I guess.
 
A couple interest me.
Battleoverdoyen. Galway 6.00 tomorrow. Ran 2 good races at this meeting 2 years ago off 149. Thrown in now at 123. Yes he's probably past it, but at 33/1 6 places. I'll take the risk.
Stewards Cup Saturday.
Mr Wagyu. Another who has run well at the meeting off higher marks.
I think he will go well here.. 25/1.
 
Goodwood 1.50 - Zealandia 28/1, 5 places - course winner, bred for this trip, trainer targets these races. Not far off the top of my ratings so the price looks generous. Not my main bet in the race, though.
 
Robicheaux said:
A couple interest me.
Battleoverdoyen. Galway 6.00 tomorrow. Ran 2 good races at this meeting 2 years ago off 149. Thrown in now at 123. Yes he's probably past it, but at 33/1 6 places. I'll take the risk.
Click to expand...
That’s a great shout
 
Robicheaux said:
A couple interest me.
Battleoverdoyen. Galway 6.00 tomorrow. Ran 2 good races at this meeting 2 years ago off 149. Thrown in now at 123. Yes he's probably past it, but at 33/1 6 places. I'll take the risk.
Stewards Cup Saturday.
Mr Wagyu. Another who has run well at the meeting off higher marks.
I think he will go well here.. 25/1.
Click to expand...
Yeah !!
 
Great shout, Rob.

It's always nice to see when posters give good shouts to big priced horses or longshots and the horses perform well.

I'm sure you are accumulating a following already. Who said we aren't getting enough new posters anyway?!
 
Two qualifiers in the 2.25:

Euchen Glen 25/1, 4 places
Forza Orta 22/1, ditto

Neither is a stranger to the forum or to this thread so suffice it to say both are very well in on their current marks and either could win if they turn up in the mood.
 
I think Graignes is the best of the longshots in the finale. The market is pointing to this too. He has some bits and pieces of excellent form including in big field handicaps. He's done nothing lately, but at this sort of price I'll have a fiver each way on just in case he returns to his best form.
 
Cheers, DO. I just briefly scanned through it and saw his name. He was fourth in a Balmoral handicap off 104 but that was four years ago. Are you going to post up your Stewards Cup thoughts?
 
Stewards' Cup

Mr Wagyu 33/1 6 pl
Rohaan 40/1 6 pl
Mostabshir 22/1 6 pl, 25/1 5 pl

See the Goodwood thread for figures/thoughts.
 
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