The 2024 Longshot Thread

Enfjaar (1.50 Ayr) & Annaf (1.30 Nwb) - double. Pays 21.5/1 at current best odds. Should probably be no more than about 9/1.
 
Nwb 2.05 - Grand Alliance 25/1, 4 places - worth an each-way pop despite his woeful reappearance run recently. Doesn't hold a Ces entry but does for better-class non-handicaps and I think the well-rated other horses in this race could have more valuable handicaps on their agenda later in the season.
 
In anticipation of a deluge. I'm taking 50s about Two Brothers ew in the 2.05 at Newbury.
Very impressive when he won on heavy at Thirsk in May.
Fairbanks + Faylaq, have come out + won good races since.
Not so sleepy in the race, there will be no hanging about + it may get attritional.
No forlorn hope.
 
Newbury 2.40 - Grays Inn 66/1 3 places & 50/1 4 places - just a bit of gut churning here. It has come down 5lbs since the start of the season and has had a two-month break and I'm hoping the booking of De Sousa is suggesting they think they've got him back in some sort of form.
 
Wee nibble for me on Twelth Knight in the Silver Cup just in case today is his D Day.

Also taken Orazio and the admirable Jordan Electrics in the main event.

Good luck all today.

I'll have to watch the replay about 5pm as out all day. Don't tell me the result! Ta.
 
Three more longshots in the Ayr Gold Cup:

Fivethousandtoone (I think it might already have been mentioned and if so then I'm agreeing) 40/1 - Balding’s two top jockeys go to Newbury so maybe this one isn’t fancied too strongly but the price is too big not to take. Top rated on my figures for this season.

Commanche Falls (also mentioned, I think) 22/1 - same rating as FTTO on last year's form.

Pilgrim 20/1 - take his disappointing most recent run out of the equation and he'd be disputing favouritism.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Annaf nosed out of second place (third is ok for the place portion) but it looked to me like it was prepping for another day.
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A fine example by Crowley of why I'm not his biggest fan. Poor tactical moves through the race cost him. Place portion of the double ensures a minor profit, which I was only ever on after Annaf didn't win, but I was keen on the win for the other thread.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nwb 2.05 - Grand Alliance 25/1, 4 places - worth an each-way pop despite his woeful reappearance run recently. Doesn't hold a Ces entry but does for better-class non-handicaps and I think the well-rated other horses in this race could have more valuable handicaps on their agenda later in the season.
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Didn't run badly and maybe just needed this too, with no more to offer from halfway up the straight. Not easy coming from behind in that ground and the ideal ride by Marquand on the winner. Smart horse on a going day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ayr Gold Cup - Aramis Grey 40/1, 5 places - it's possible there was a pace collapse last time but watch the race again and tell me how far you reckon she would have won had she not a) lost two or three lengths when squeezed just after the start, and b) found the gaps closing repeatedly from the two-pole... For me she's a winner without a penalty. That in itself guarantees nothing but her price looks 'way too long.
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Must admit I got a wee shudder just inside the two=pole when she appeared to hit the front but then I saw Lethal Levi on the near side. I thought LL would take them along on this side but would be vulnerable to closers. Ultimately quite impressive.

At least AG covered all my longshots in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Three more longshots in the Ayr Gold Cup:

Fivethousandtoone (I think it might already have been mentioned and if so then I'm agreeing) 40/1 - Balding’s two top jockeys go to Newbury so maybe this one isn’t fancied too strongly but the price is too big not to take. Top rated on my figures for this season.

Commanche Falls (also mentioned, I think) 22/1 - same rating as FTTO on last year's form.

Pilgrim 20/1 - take his disappointing most recent run out of the equation and he'd be disputing favouritism.
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Sixth place for Commanche Falls. I think I might have made an overall profit on the race.
 
Thankfully Lethal Levi was tipped up on WHill just before the off so I backed him. Silkie Wilkie was second on my little systems list and I followed DO with his picks so I did ok in the race, after losing all the money I’d won on my Kelso bumper horse on silly bets on the silver cup. In the end I had to top up my betting account, being down to 14 pence but I’m still fifty pence above the £5 I topped it up with.
 
Bajan Bandit 5.05 Newm 33-1 B3, 28 others, some a bit lower

Started off at 50 this morning, I think the 3 non runners are only (very) partly responsible for the halving. Little doubt that Grant Tuer would be lining this one up for something after a summer break. This could be part of the plan today (ie to lose) but equally (given it's only a class 4), a win might not do any harm (and might do some good) to prospects in slightly better races coming up.

Ran some highly promising races in class 2's last season, most notably against Catch The Paddy and Silver Sword (currently ridiculously low-priced with Hills and one or two others for the Cambridgeshire, but much higher elsewhere by the look of it).

I would say that if BB drifts later, then today is not likely to be the day.
 
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chaumi said:
Bajan Bandit 5.05 Newm 33-1 B3, 28 others, some a bit lower

Started off at 50 this morning, I think the 3 non runners are only (very) partly responsible for the halving. Little doubt that Grant Tuer would be lining this one up for something after a summer break. This could be part of the plan today (ie to lose) but equally (given it's only a class 4), a win might not do any harm (and might do some good) to prospects in slightly better races coming up.

Ran some highly promising races in class 2's last season, most notably against Catch The Paddy and Silver Sword (currently ridiculously low-priced with Hills and one or two others for the Cambridgeshire, but much higher elsewhere by the look of it).

I would say that if BB drifts later, then today is not likely to be the day.
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I'm with you Chaum.class 4.
 
Cambridgeshire - Empirestateofmind 66/1, 6 places - well in on its best form, very lightly raced this season (only two runs so has it had issues or have they been preserving a good mark?) so the price is too big for me not to take. On my figures it's as well handicapped as Bopedro is on its best form.

Also - Navagio 100/1 6 places - blue pretty much across the board. Unlucky in the Lincoln off 96, woeful since, off 91 here. Another I can't not back.
 
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BB just short headed out of 3rd, but that was on the cards throughout the last 100 yards. Just not good enough on the day. May have been inconvenienced by running centre track throughout - the winner came up stands side. Front 4 well clear of the rest.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cambridgeshire - Empirestateofmind 66/1, 6 places - well in on its best form, very lightly raced this season (only two runs so has it had issues or have they been preserving a good mark?) so the price is too big for me not to take. On my figures it's as well handicapped as Bopedro is on its best form.

Also - Navagio 100/1 6 places - blue pretty much across the board. Unlucky in the Lincoln off 96, woeful since, off 91 here. Another I can't not back.
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I thought the same.ive done navagio 66/1 boosted to 75/1.
Dutch decoy 33/1 is another overpriced.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cambridgeshire - Empirestateofmind 66/1, 6 places - well in on its best form, very lightly raced this season (only two runs so has it had issues or have they been preserving a good mark?) so the price is too big for me not to take. On my figures it's as well handicapped as Bopedro is on its best form.

Also - Navagio 100/1 6 places - blue pretty much across the board. Unlucky in the Lincoln off 96, woeful since, off 91 here. Another I can't not back.
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Empirestateofmind appears to have attracted some money but Navagio has been taken out.
 
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