The 2024 Longshot Thread

viking said:
Couldn’t believe they let White Rhino go off at 7/2 for that having been 11/8 last night
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It drifted in the betting last time out when it won.
Very strange as the trainer was quoted as saying he was likely to make a better chaser than a hurdler.
Anyone backing it at sp or with bog must be very happy.
 
Great price considering how he won lto, eh? Ostrava Du Berlais was a very good deal at 15/8, too, I thought.
 
Desijo said:
It drifted in the betting last time out when it won.
Very strange as the trainer was quoted as saying he was likely to make a better chaser than a hurdler.
Anyone backing it at sp or with bog must be very happy.
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Yes indeed. He's got form around Cheltenham aswell.
 
yorick said:
Well, the jockey looked none too bothered when push came to shove but his jumping was lovely, don't you think? He had a right good blow out,too, as he finished the race, albeit tailed off. He'll go down a couple for this and he's well worth keeping an eye on, I reckon.
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Yes.
 
Cheddleton @ 18/1 is one I think may provide an Ew opportunity 12.14 Wetherby.

A horse that's disappointed but, in an open race, I think his breeding shows that 3m could still be what he's after and at that price I shall have a little ew go.
 
Same here, Yorick.

Regular followers of my shite will know about me and Chedders.
 
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Doncaster, Saturday

(Both in the same race.)

Sail Away 25/1 (4 pl) & Whistleinthedark 50/1 (ditto)

I've no idea if either/both is/are intended runners but Paul Kealy put both up in the Weekender today and his reasoning is exactly along the kind of lines of mine so I thought I'd better get on now at the prices before the bookies react. Both are very, very well handicapped on their best form.
 
December Gold Cup - Guard Your Dreams 20/1 - I put this one on the ante-post thread yesterday at 25/1 and I see money has come for it today. It's 22s with a couple of obscure bookies and 20s generally with the better known ones and blue. 16s and 14s with a couple.
 
Friday 1.50 - Our Power 20/1 - His win in the big Kempton handicap saw him foil a Skelton course specialist (Flegmatik), suggesting he was still improving. He then appeared not to take to the Grand National. Last year he prepped for the Hennessy, in which he fell, with a run over hurdles so I’d argue you can effectively ignore those last three runs. He was entered up in a £100k race at Ascot a fortnight ago but taken out because of the fast ground, which he won’t have here. The fact that they’re entering him for these valuable races suggests they still think a lot of him and the trainer brought out Al Dancer to storm home at a price in the Badger Beer first time up after nearly 200 days off under a claimer. Chianti Classico will be hard to beat but can he afford to win if he’s going for the National himself? A win here would make him a contender for a minor place in a Gold Cup if that's the route they choose to go with him.
 
Friday 2.25 - Paint The Dream 25/1, 4 places - was improving when last seen but the handicapper has kindly dropped it 10lbs for missing last season. I've done the double with Our Power (493/1 at the odds I got).
 
Cross Country at Cheltenham tomorrow is not a race I would usually get involved in.
However the Elliott pair Gevrey + The Goffer, look very big at 66s to me.
You don't have to go very far back, to see some very smart handicap form from the pair of them. Very well treated on those + both horses are still relatively young.
 
Robicheaux said:
Cross Country at Cheltenham tomorrow is not a race I would usually get involved in.
However the Elliott pair Gevrey + The Goffer, look very big at 66s to me.
You don't have to go very far back, to see some very smart handicap form from the pair of them. Very well treated on those + both horses are still relatively young.
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Definitely with you on The Goffer and have had a decent bet on this with B365 who are 5 places, remember this horse was 4th in 'that' Ultima off 149
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday 1.50 - Our Power 20/1 - His win in the big Kempton handicap saw him foil a Skelton course specialist (Flegmatik), suggesting he was still improving. He then appeared not to take to the Grand National. Last year he prepped for the Hennessy, in which he fell, with a run over hurdles so I’d argue you can effectively ignore those last three runs. He was entered up in a £100k race at Ascot a fortnight ago but taken out because of the fast ground, which he won’t have here. The fact that they’re entering him for these valuable races suggests they still think a lot of him and the trainer brought out Al Dancer to storm home at a price in the Badger Beer first time up after nearly 200 days off under a claimer. Chianti Classico will be hard to beat but can he afford to win if he’s going for the National himself? A win here would make him a contender for a minor place in a Gold Cup if that's the route they choose to go with him.
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Ran a blinder. No complaints.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday 2.25 - Paint The Dream 25/1, 4 places - was improving when last seen but the handicapper has kindly dropped it 10lbs for missing last season. I've done the double with Our Power (493/1 at the odds I got).
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Lobbed round just behind the pace the whole way and repeatedly anchored as he made a wee bit of ground. Never asked a question at any point and clearly being held on to for something. Market weakness over the last 24 hours had my expectations duly lowered but I got the impression they fancy it has a decent pot in him, possibly the final of this series.
 
Chel 12.40 - Hillcrest 25/1 - hopefully will have come on a lot for his reappearance last month and has the potential to outclass what is effectively Class 3 opposition off top weight. He'll need to jump a lot better than last time though but the price is worth the risk.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Chel 12.40 - Hillcrest 25/1 - hopefully will have come on a lot for his reappearance last month and has the potential to outclass what is effectively Class 3 opposition off top weight. He'll need to jump a lot better than last time though but the price is worth the risk.
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TBH, I thought the booking of ST-D was a big positive and I do believe it was there to try and win but its jumping fell apart more the further they went.

I'd get it qualified for the Pertemps Final asap and then train it for that.

To paraphrase one of my old man's favoured disses, he can jump nane.
 
Ascot 2.30. 25/1 ( bet 365 ) about Move it like Minnie appeals. Ran a cracking race at this fixture last year. Reproduction of that, she has to go close. 4lb lower too.
 
A few for tomorrow:

Ascot 2.25 - Botox Has 40/1
Ascot 3.35 - Go Dante 22/1, 4 pl; Kihavah 33/1, 4pl

I know I was very critical of the decision to run Kihavah in the FF but have since revisited the race and upgraded my figures. The jockey is a complete unknown and hasn’t ridden a winner to date, albeit from very few rides but the horse has winning Flat form for claimers so might be the generous type. I’m willing to risk an each-way pop at a big price.
 
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