The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Edit - also Castle Rushen 40/1 and The Imposter 50/1. CR is too high up my ratings table not to back and The Imposter, while further down goes into a very valuable handicap with form figures 1/111- with the profile of an improver. I reckon if it won people would look at that and wonder why they dissed it.
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Fourth place for Castle Rushen and for a fair way I was getting excited but he looked pretty legless from three out.

It's looking pretty attritional out there. Could well play into Royale Pagaille's hands.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race - Zain Nights 20/1, 5 places - on my figures has a similar chance as the favourite so I'd rather back it ew than the fav win only. This is actually my main bet in the race.

Edit - also Castle Rushen 40/1 and The Imposter 50/1. CR is too high up my ratings table not to back and The Imposter, while further down goes into a very valuable handicap with form figures 1/111- with the profile of an improver. I reckon if it won people would look at that and wonder why they dissed it.
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Glad you mentioned Castle Rushen. Nicky Richard’s used to feature in the Jumping Prospects book I buy every year but isn’t in it this year, so I was considering backing it just to cover myself if it ran well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ascot 2.05 - The Big Breakaway 28/1, 4 places - his form 'figures' are more akin to picking up a Penguin but I'm just a bit intrigued that Sean Bowen has been drafted in for the ride but the horse is on a ridiculous mark if Charlton can get a tune out of him.
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Fell asleep and missed this race and only just checked the result. He may well have been beaten over 30 lengths but he still got second place so no complaints here!
 
Journey with me John Durkan chase tomorrow.
Beat Appreciate it with ease in a grade 2 last season and the distance and going look ideal.
If fit first time out he looks a huge each way price at 40/1.
Is obviously up against it here ,but the odds look generous for a horse who excels at this distance.
 
Journey with Me in to 16s best. Great shout win or lose - obviously it will be something of a surprise if he figures but stranger things have happened
 
Southwell 1.05.
Goldwyn beat a 133 rated chaser winning his novice hurdle.
Running off 112, here on his chasing debut. 40/1 looks big to me.
 
Robicheaux said:
Southwell 1.05.
Goldwyn beat a 133 rated chaser winning his novice hurdle.
Running off 112, here on his chasing debut. 40/1 looks big to me.
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Not my kind of race but my kind of thinking so I've followed you in, Robi, despite the market weakness (op20s). 40s to 4 places.
 
With the Mullins horses out of the King George it has thrown the market into a degree of chaos with possible supplementary entries now catching the attention.

On the Hennessy thread I mentioned last night that I'd backed General En Chef and it is also entered for the King George and available at 66/1 so in for a penny and all that.

I'm not saying it can/will win and I'm half-expecting it won't even run but if its French rating is correct it shouldn't be 66/1.

The current top-rated on ORs is L'Homme Presse (169) and that's a pretty modest rating for a potential King George winner. Royale Pagaille (166) is around 10s/12s and GEC's French rating translates to just a pound or two behind that.
 
1.50 Market Rasen
Bold Endeavour (22/1 SkyBet 3 places) looks worth a go each way. He should improve for his first run back with Laura Morgan and runs off 4lb lower than when finishing 4th in the final in March. His best runs have been on soft ground so he should appreciate the ground today much more than the last twice. Available at 25/1 elsewhere but only 2 places. Hopefully no more NRs as SkyBet drop to 2 places if less than 6 run
 
viking said:
1.50 Market Rasen
Bold Endeavour (22/1 SkyBet 3 places) looks worth a go each way. He should improve for his first run back with Laura Morgan and runs off 4lb lower than when finishing 4th in the final in March. His best runs have been on soft ground so he should appreciate the ground today much more than the last twice. Available at 25/1 elsewhere but only 2 places. Hopefully no more NRs as SkyBet drop to 2 places if less than 6 run
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Very poor. On that evidence you’d say he’s gone at the game
 
Benefit Ben 2.10 Musselborough. 28/1? Is blue on oddschecker. He’s moved from Sandy Thompson to Adam Nicol but in the same ownership. All I can assume is that they think he needed a smaller stable/change of scenery. Part owned by Lee Westwood ( wasn’t expecting that when I looked him up!).Even if he does nothing to day he’s worth keeping an eye on. They must think that he’ll like being trained on the beach. It worked with Wise Eagle. It’ll be interesting to see if his price comes in even more.
 
The two Nicols fought it out for last place and didn’t even achieve that! Still going to keep on eye on him though. At least he’ll be having a nice time on the beach!
 
Remastered 33 /1 Sam Brown 33/1 Coral gold cup
As many have said on here this is a really poor renewal of this prestigious race.
The two above are both in the veteran stage ,but unless one or two of the younger brigade are better than they have previously shown the 2 old hands could take a hand in the finish.
2 small each way bets.
Good luck everyone.
 
Agree about Remastered. It was showing at 40/1 on the RP card but when I tried to back it the best I could get was 33/1. It shortened a wee bit during the week after Paul Kealy put it up in the Weekender and I presume the bookies have word that he's mentioning it again the RP tomorrow.

I've also taken 25/1 Iron Bridge which I think is very attractively weighted but neither is my main bet in the race (nor is the French one - I've dug up a potential blot which I'll mention in the morning once the money is on).

That will give me four in the race at nice prices.
 
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