The 2024 Longshot Thread

I’ve noticed the RP card is quite often unreliable as the prices on the card don’t seem to update much and very often don’t reflect what’s actually available
 
A few longshots on what has become quite a heavy betting day - sad, innit, when you eventually migrate to heavy betting from heavy petting - with low enough expectations.

I'll be happy to break even on the day.

Newbury 12.40 - Imperil 33/1 - his French rating is some way higher than when he last raced in this country a few years ago. If the French rating is accurate he is chucked in but the fact is it went up 21lbs in the first half of last calendar year.

Newbury 2.25 - Ballybentragh 40/1 - big rating from his sixth place in the G1 stayers’ novice at Aintree so I have doubts about this step back in trip. They might well be trying to get him handicapped for a decent prize down the line but he’s still worth some each-way sweetie money just in case.

Same race - The Famous Five 22/1 - has drifted this morning to qualify for the thread. The drift is a worry but he was improving last season and could still be well in based on how smart a Flat horse in his youth in France.

Newbury 3.35 - I'd Like To Know 22/1 - has also drifted to qualify, which is a a worry, but he's joint-top on my figures.

Same race - Jetronic 70/1 - overall top-rated on the pick of his form. Also on the drift but that can happen with the Moores.
 
Newbury 2.25
Our Champ will need to improve to win this but I’m prepared to take a chance at 20/1 that he can. He’s become a bit of a favourite for me and I particularly liked the way he battled last time after Freddie Gordon lost his whip on the run-in
 
Desert Orchid said:
A few longshots on what has become quite a heavy betting day - sad, innit, when you eventually migrate to heavy betting from heavy petting - with low enough expectations.

Newbury 12.40 - Imperil 33/1 - his French rating is some way higher than when he last raced in this country a few years ago. If the French rating is accurate he is chucked in but the fact is it went up 21lbs in the first half of last calendar year.
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Excellent second, sp 40/1. Clear of the third and miles clear of the rest. Beaten by a Hendo job.

That will cover a few of the longshots.
 
viking said:
Newbury 2.25
Our Champ will need to improve to win this but I’m prepared to take a chance at 20/1 that he can. He’s become a bit of a favourite for me and I particularly liked the way he battled last time after Freddie Gordon lost his whip on the run-in
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A shame the two that set the pace with this fella couldn’t take him any further as acknowledged by Gavin Sheehan on IiTV (not a shame for Gavin of course). Still a place at 20/1 isn’t bad
 
Walk On Air (1.10) Hay is from a stable that's only had two winners this season.

66/1 for a horse that just failed to catch Henry's Friend, giving that 12Lbs only two runs ago. I wonder what that horse would do in the this race with 10-12, bearing in mind he ran 5th in the Hennessey on Saturday.

PU last time out: who cares?

The price seems huge, given that, so a little Ew seems in order.
 
yorick said:
Walk On Air (1.10) Hay is from a stable that's only had two winners this season.

66/1 for a horse that just failed to catch Henry's Friend, giving that 12Lbs only two runs ago. I wonder what that horse would do in the this race with 10-12, bearing in mind he ran 5th in the Hennessey on Saturday.

PU last time out: who cares?

The price seems huge, given that, so a little Ew seems in order.
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Only 7 runners, but Corals going 3 places at 66/1.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Only 7 runners, but Corals going 3 places at 66/1.
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I do wonder if bookies make secret incentive payments to trainers to not run their horses. The number of 6-7 runner races is phenomenal and bad for the sport. Bet 365 paying 3 places, mind.
 
yorick said:
I do wonder if bookies make secret incentive payments to trainers to not run their horses. The number of 6-7 runner races is phenomenal and bad for the sport. Bet 365 paying 3 places, mind.
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It's one of my favourite conspiracy theories but McCririck hinted at it for years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Neither off an inch.
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Well, the jockey looked none too bothered when push came to shove but his jumping was lovely, don't you think? He had a right good blow out,too, as he finished the race, albeit tailed off. He'll go down a couple for this and he's well worth keeping an eye on, I reckon.
 
Couldn’t believe they let White Rhino go off at 7/2 for that having been 11/8 last night
 
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