The 2024 Longshot Thread

Zoulu Chief 4.25 Meydan

There's a chance he needed the first two runs out there for acclimatisation. And just didn't get away in the Group 2 last time. This looks easier, and there's a reasonable chance he can have a lot of these in trouble 2f out if he can get rolling in front from the off. 33-1 WH and Skybet looks enticing enough to find out.
 
hmmm no prizes for last :-(

Prob best leaving Zoulu alone for a bit till at least showing something approximating true level. Too bad to be true, that one, and it was a good-looking opportunity.
 
Grand National Trial Haydock 17th Feb Fortescue 25-1 WH

It's unlikely our old friend will get another better chance than this. Everything looks right - three and a half, probably heavy right now but a milder week in prospect which should see it suitably hard work soft ground by next weekend, likely no more than 11 to carry round.

12s BF Sportsbook, I think 14 or 16 B365, which makes Hills 25s look attractive. Don't think Chambard will run (Venetia surely will go Cheltenham - Aintree and not risk a hard race here), and a fair few of the others higher in the weights may not turn up either.

It's 2 years since Fortescue ran Royale Pagaille to a few lengths in the Peter Marsh, looking like an extra 2f might well have seen him win with a dour finish. He could well have one nice race left and doesn't appear to have a National entry.
 
Grand National - Run Wild Fred 100/1, 5 places - in 2021, off 140 as a first-season novice in Ireland (146 here?) he was denied by 150/1 Freewheelin Dylan in the Irish National. Three runs later, in his second season, he was 9/4f off 159 in a G1. He was then 15/8f when second to Stattler in the NHC at the festival and was then only 8/1 for the National itself off 158 when he fell. He's now off 147 so should get in near the bottom of the weights, almost certainly under 11-0, following some disappointing runs.

He might not be the soundest of jumpers but many National winners fall into that category.

He might not even run but he does look very well handicapped these days and if Giggi/Elliott decide to go mob-handed he might be one of the mob and shouldn't be anywhere near that price if he does run.
 
Saturday, Haydock GN Trial - Full Back 33/1, 4 places - if I get a bit of time I'll state its case but I see it's going blue this evening.

I've also backed in at 150/1 for the GN itself but it will need to hack up on Saturday to go up the minimum requisite 12lbs to have any chance of making the cut.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Haydock GN Trial - Full Back 33/1, 4 places - if I get a bit of time I'll state its case but I see it's going blue this evening.

I've also backed in at 150/1 for the GN itself but it will need to hack up on Saturday to go up the minimum requisite 12lbs to have any chance of making the cut.
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Are you a fully paid up member of the Gary Moore fan club mate:)
 
Seamus Mullins can get the odd good-priced bumper winner/placer. His Jack Out Of Reach runs in the last at Fakenham. Currently best-priced 125-1.

7 runner race, Paul Nicholls odds on fav who has form with Predators Gold in a valuable Punchestown bumper, and a Class 4 Aintree bumper.

JOOR was introduced in a £19k Class 2 Lingfield bumper, looking a fairly hot race on paper beforehand. Reportedly was going well at home before that and yard fancied their chances of a good run. Seems interesting that SM opted to introduce him in that tough a race. Well beaten, but not really surprising given the potential of several others in the race.

So, might struggle to beat the fav. But the others don't look up to much on paper, and if JOOR is a little above standard then the EW might give a payback. 3 places BF is probably the best option, but doubt that'll be more than 5 or 6.
 
Outsider said:
Are you a fully paid up member of the Gary Moore fan club mate:)
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:lol:

I respect his runners at Sandown and I know he plots them up but other than that I don't rate him.

I don't think FB is a plot at all. It's obviously had its troubles but it's one of those I often end up having sickness insurance on; the ones with back class that have 'lost their way' and could be thrown in once they get back in the groove.
 
Desert Orchid said:
:lol:

I respect his runners at Sandown and I know he plots them up but other than that I don't rate him.

I don't think FB is a plot at all. It's obviously had its troubles but it's one of those I often end up having sickness insurance on; the ones with back class that have 'lost their way' and could be thrown in once they get back in the groove.
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He's got Caolin Quinn up (who rode Nassalam in the Welsh National), and that may well give them a line as to where they are with FB in a race where you wouldn't have been majorly surprised to see Nassalam line up (if he hadn't already won a Welsh Nat by 30 odd lengths)


PS Another of our old favs is out in the 3.00 Ascot tomorrow - Rapper, up in the 20s I think. Has been entered up in a fair few races over the last couple of months and not taken his chance. Possibly wasn't spot on, possibly ground
 
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chaumi said:
He's got Caolin Quinn up (who rode Nassalam in the Welsh National), and that may well give them a line as to where they are with FB in a race where you wouldn't have been majorly surprised to see Nassalam line up (if he hadn't already won a Welsh Nat by 30 odd lengths)


PS Another of our old favs is out in the 3.00 Ascot tomorrow - Rapper, up in the 20s I think. Has been entered up in a fair few races over the last couple of months and not taken his chance. Possibly wasn't spot on, possibly ground
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I've now had a look at that race.and agree that Rapper is over-priced at 25/1. Daly's only previous runner in the race was one Fortescue which won it two years ago. I've taken it in the ew double with Full Back. I'm not expecting a return but if heaven decrees that all these ducks shall align then the £2 win portion returns more than a grand. That would sort day 1 of the festival...
 
I had a pound ew on Rapper at 40/1 but he's going to have to show a big improvement on what he's achieved this yeat
 
Daly's Bretney ran well above himself to make all in the Class 3 at Sandown yesterday. One horse going well doesn't mean much ofc , but possibly signals/implies well-being of the yard
 
chaumi said:
Seamus Mullins can get the odd good-priced bumper winner/placer. His Jack Out Of Reach runs in the last at Fakenham. Currently best-priced 125-1.

7 runner race, Paul Nicholls odds on fav who has form with Predators Gold in a valuable Punchestown bumper, and a Class 4 Aintree bumper.

JOOR was introduced in a £19k Class 2 Lingfield bumper, looking a fairly hot race on paper beforehand. Reportedly was going well at home before that and yard fancied their chances of a good run. Seems interesting that SM opted to introduce him in that tough a race. Well beaten, but not really surprising given the potential of several others in the race.

So, might struggle to beat the fav. But the others don't look up to much on paper, and if JOOR is a little above standard then the EW might give a payback. 3 places BF is probably the best option, but doubt that'll be more than 5 or 6.
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Oh ****!
 
chaumi said:
Seamus Mullins can get the odd good-priced bumper winner/placer. His Jack Out Of Reach runs in the last at Fakenham. Currently best-priced 125-1.

7 runner race, Paul Nicholls odds on fav who has form with Predators Gold in a valuable Punchestown bumper, and a Class 4 Aintree bumper.

JOOR was introduced in a £19k Class 2 Lingfield bumper, looking a fairly hot race on paper beforehand. Reportedly was going well at home before that and yard fancied their chances of a good run. Seems interesting that SM opted to introduce him in that tough a race. Well beaten, but not really surprising given the potential of several others in the race.

So, might struggle to beat the fav. But the others don't look up to much on paper, and if JOOR is a little above standard then the EW might give a payback. 3 places BF is probably the best option, but doubt that'll be more than 5 or 6.
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Almost perfect!!! Made the odds on shot work for it. Enough 30s on the RFC on BF, 9's for first three. And a pretty heavy EW with VC.

When I went to back it at 125s with Hills last night, they restricted me to 50p win LOL LOL
 
Asc 2.25 - Ostend 66/1, 5 places, BOG - not obviously well handicapped but an unexposed second-season novice making its debut for a quiet but effective trainer. I'm wondering even enter such a horse for this valuable race without giving it a few prep runs...
 
Schalke could be interesting in the 3.50 Haydock. Drifted out to 33-1 now (WH 4 places), 40-1 BV (3). A further slip to 50-1 (and maybe 70+ on the Exchange) will make it more interesting.

First run after an op, has goodish form at 3 miles on heavy and soft. Expect to be positioned stone last (maybe alongside Snootie, who hopefully will revert to Punchestown tactics after more prominent runs in recent races) and hopefully pick enough of them off over the last 3 to have a chance at the finish.

Aaron Anderson rode him in the Sandown Grade 3 last year (not soft enough, but still ran well), is on board today and will know how to ride him. A few of Rebecca's have run well in recent weeks, just about enough to suggest yard is OK (without being on fire exactly).

A few of the more fancied runners are not guaranteed to relish a 3 mile slog. Still leaves enough potential dangers (Snootie etc, and even Foillan who also goes after a wind op for Patrick Neville).

Maybe the two Malinas runners will fight out the finish by sitting out back and conserving enough to keep going over the last 2.

If the leaders go off hard, it'll likely pay to keep a close eye on Schalke out the back for positive signs, but plenty will know the likely tactics so outlandish odds in running seem unlikely.
 
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chaumi said:
Schalke could be interesting in the 3.50 Haydock. Drifted out to 33-1 now (WH 4 places), 40-1 BV (3). A further slip to 50-1 (and maybe 70+ on the Exchange) will make it more interesting.

First run after an op, has goodish form at 3 miles on heavy and soft. Expect to be positioned stone last (maybe alongside Snootie, who hopefully will revert to Punchestown tactics after more prominent runs in recent races) and hopefully pick enough of them off over the last 3 to have a chance at the finish.

Aaron Anderson rode him in the Sandown Grade 3 last year (not soft enough, but still ran well), is on board today and will know how to ride him. A few of Rebecca's have run well in recent weeks, just about enough to suggest yard is OK (without being on fire exactly).

A few of the more fancied runners are not guaranteed to relish a 3 mile slog. Still leaves enough potential dangers (Snootie etc, and even Foillan who also goes after a wind op for Patrick Neville).

Maybe the two Malinas runners will fight out the finish by sitting out back and conserving enough to keep going over the last 2.

If the leaders go off hard, it'll likely pay to keep a close eye on Schalke out the back for positive signs, but plenty will know the likely tactics so outlandish odds in running seem unlikely.
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Yes, it has the back form to be involved and I might have a wee bit of sickness insurance because I have it joint-top on last year's form (J'Ai Froid is miles clear on older form and I'm thinking of that too) but I don't like my horses ridden from the back in heavy ground.
 
Watch out for the Daly yard, hasn't really fired properly this season, but Bretney, Rapper (great run, just outpaced at the wrong time?), and Supreme Gift (another great ride by Alice Stevens, thought he was going to go past but it's super hard to beat a Pauling runner right now), all sending signals the yard may have gone hot. Two runners outside of the first 3 in the Ascot bumper, but it looked hot enough.

Thought Full Back ran well enough, 3 or 4 sticky jumps possibly did him and couldn't go through with an effort from about 3 out
 
It might not be tomorrow as it will have easier chances once handicapped.
TINA MEEHAN 66/1 305p

Was trained by W.Mullins when it won its bumper by 14L didn't run for 9 months where it made mistakes 1/2fav.
Left Willie's and now with Nash and ran 3rd a month later and now runs after another 8 months off.
 
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