The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
And how about the ew double with Solent Gateway (3.30, 20/1, 4 places, top on my figures and Murphy up, 42% for the trainer this season) for a 545/1 bit of fun :cool:
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SG was definitely trying and that's all I ever ask but he was beaten by a serious job.

I do feel a wee bit robbed of a 29/1 place double, though, with FOB blowing the start.
 
Irish 1000G - Everlasting, 33/1, 4 places - posted a decent figure over 1m2f on her reappearance and I think the drop back to a mile will bring about further improvement for the daughter of Kingman. (Not my main bet in the race.)
 
 Badri won the last race on saturday last year and is 2lb higher now.soft going is not ideal and maybe this is to get its mark down a bit more but betfair are going 40/1 so i cant resist a bit of that.
Holly rides again .
 
2.35 - Autumn Festival 33/1, 5 places - (ignore the 40/1 with PP - they're only allowing 62p at that price) a pound lower than when a very nice third in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and might get the run of the race up front. (Not my main fancy in the race but the price looks just too big.)
 
Epsom 3.45 - One Night Stand 25/1, 5 places (Sky) - cosy winner of a decent race at Wolverhampton early this year and no surprise if it's been trained for this since. Likes to race prominently and has a high(ish) draw plus the trainer has a fair record in the race from few runners. Went up to 97 for winning a Listed race in February 2022 before losing form and dropping right down to 70 by last December but since then has climbed back up to 90 and heading back towards his best. Worth a punt at the price but not my main bet in the race.
 
Epsom 5.15 - Percy Shelley 20/1, 4 places, BOG - missed the 25s yesterday and maybe the price cut was the result of Rhoscolyn winning. He started off in this country last autumn on a mark of 100 so has dropped a fair bit. He did, though, run very well off that mark in a decent (£100k) handicap at Southwell (Tapeta) and could win this on that form off 11lbs lower.
 
Epsom 5.50 - Kiwano 66/1, 4 places - won off 92 last spring but missed the summer and autumn. Changed yards and ran in the Middle East this winter. Down to 87 here and showed promise last time back in the UK.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Epsom 3.45 - One Night Stand 25/1, 5 places (Sky) - cosy winner of a decent race at Wolverhampton early this year and no surprise if it's been trained for this since. Likes to race prominently and has a high(ish) draw plus the trainer has a fair record in the race from few runners. Went up to 97 for winning a Listed race in February 2022 before losing form and dropping right down to 70 by last December but since then has climbed back up to 90 and heading back towards his best. Worth a punt at the price but not my main bet in the race.
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Non-runner. Money saved.
 
Epsom 3.10 Been a while since I got a long shot up. That said, I've chanced Split The Profit in this. He's been improving this season, albeit in lower class races, but this faster pace to aim at might suit him, and hopefully he finishes strong and fast late on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Epsom 5.15 - Percy Shelley 20/1, 4 places, BOG - missed the 25s yesterday and maybe the price cut was the result of Rhoscolyn winning. He started off in this country last autumn on a mark of 100 so has dropped a fair bit. He did, though, run very well off that mark in a decent (£100k) handicap at Southwell (Tapeta) and could win this on that form off 11lbs lower.
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Topical tip I have to follow having read Ozymadias the other day!
 
Desert Orchid said:
Derby - Sayedaty Sadaty 100/1 - having seen how the yard's horses ran in recent trials, I think this one might outrun its odds and improve significantly for another step up in trip. At the moment it's all just a hunch but Balding has form with outsiders in the race.
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Certainly outran those odds. No financial return but happy with the performance.
 
Not like me to have a bet on a Sunday but I had a quick look at the Hamilton meeting as I'm thinking of going.

I think Zarzini in the 5.10 is too big at 20/1. He almost won last time and has only gone up 3lbs. If that was a sign that he's coming back to form he'd lift up this lot and carry them. Then again, the same could be said of several in the field. Joe Fanning rides and he has a 34% strike rate for the stable this year.
 
French Derby - Ramadan 28/1, 4 places - joint second-top on RPRs, only one behind the top, a 4/1 shot. Bred to be suited by stepping up to this trip. The price looks wrong even if the draw is a tough one.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not like me to have a bet on a Sunday but I had a quick look at the Hamilton meeting as I'm thinking of going.

I think Zarzini in the 5.10 is too big at 20/1. He almost won last time and has only gone up 3lbs. If that was a sign that he's coming back to form he'd lift up this lot and carry them. Then again, the same could be said of several in the field. Joe Fanning rides and he has a 34% strike rate for the stable this year.
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Not off an inch. Always a possibility with Sunday racing.
 
Irish Derby - Portland 66/1 - not many bookies pricing the race but the same reasons for backing him for Epsom apply. I'm hoping they're saving him specifically for the Curragh.
 
Shes A Rocca 4.50 Southwell tomorrow
May represent a bit of each way value at 20/1
Has won twice at Southwell and looks possibly overpriced.
Good Luck if you play 🤞
 
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