The 2024 Longshot Thread

Saturday, Haydock 3.35 - Popmaster 20/1, 4 places - one of several who bring serious handicap form to this G3 and strikes me as being seriously over-priced. Saffie Osborne is the stable jockey and operating at 28% this season so I have no worries on that score. (The Godolphin fav will be hard to beat, though.)
 
12/1 is not a particularly big price for this thread.
I don't think it will last long if the well handicapped Able Kane is on a going day.
Chepstow 7.00 tomorrow.
 
Haydock 3.00 - Caernarfon 28/1 4 places - top rated on ORs, RPRs and my own figures but has been really disappointing. She's bound to return to form at some point but is very weak here (12s on Thursday) so no big expectations. EW to small stakes.
 
Two things that would usually put me off. A poor draw + this race being used as a prep for a tilt at the John Smiths Magnet Gold Cup.
However, having thought about it. This is a decent pot. Horse has course form + gers on with the jockey.
I think Scampi is overpriced at 25s. York 4.10.
 
Imperial Fighter 2.05 Sandown tomorrow
Currently 50/1
Was contesting group races a couple of years ago.
Needs to find some form to figure, but looks a big price to do so.
 
Desijo said:
Imperial Fighter 2.05 Sandown tomorrow
Currently 50/1
Was contesting group races a couple of years ago.
Needs to find some form to figure, but looks a big price to do so.
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Yes, I put it on the thread last time out and planned to have some sickness insurance on it here. Hoping for a drift too :cool:
 
Well, the drift re Imperial Fighter didn't happen and it's gone blue across the board and is now generally in the 20s. I got 40s with B365 but with 'only' five places on offer. It was very weak last time so maybe the move for it is genuine. It's sporting a first-time tongue tie.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, the drift re Imperial Fighter didn't happen and it's gone blue across the board and is now generally in the 20s. I got 40s with B365 but with 'only' five places on offer. It was very weak last time so maybe the move for it is genuine. It's sporting a first-time tongue tie.
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Fingers crossed 🤞
I'm due a winner
 
Vince L'amour 3.35 York
Ran well when 6th in the Epsom dash last time out.
Has decent form with a few smart sprinters and the return to 6 furlongs looks ideal.
Currently 25/1.
I must admit I can never work out the Tim Easterby stable so let's hope this guess is a good one.
 
Flora Of Bermuda didn't get the best of rides there, I thought. I had no financial involvement in the race so no axe to grind.

It's possible the winner would have kept finding more but I was a tad relieved FOB didn't win having decided to sit the race out.
 
Robicheaux said:
Tolstoy in the first at York.
Useful 2yo for Gosden, with winning form, with juice in the ground.
Slipped way down the handicap now.
Blew the start for his new trainer, but I think that was a one off.
Could be a lively outsider at 33s.
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Landed two gambles on consecutive days. Could've got 33s yesterday + today 😳
 
Desert Orchid said:
Flora Of Bermuda didn't get the best of rides there, I thought. I had no financial involvement in the race so no axe to grind.

It's possible the winner would have kept finding more but I was a tad relieved FOB didn't win having decided to sit the race out.
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And me.and I agree about the ride.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, the drift re Imperial Fighter didn't happen and it's gone blue across the board and is now generally in the 20s. I got 40s with B365 but with 'only' five places on offer. It was very weak last time so maybe the move for it is genuine. It's sporting a first-time tongue tie.
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Entered in the Buckingham Palace next Thursday.
 
One of the great things about festivals like Cheltenham and Ascot is that you can take a punt on more than one longshot in some races as the prices tend to be better than if the races were run on an ordinary weekend.

In the Queen Anne I've backed three longshots with four places on offer:

Dolayli 20/1
Flight Plan 50/1
Hi Royal 66/1

Dolayli is a rare Aga Khan runner and he took the Oaks the other week The chances are this one is better than we know.
Flight Plan is a gut selection. Burke doesn't tend to to tilt at windmills and there are reasons for opposing the market leaders so the race might fall apart.
How often will we get 66/1 about a Ryan Moore horse at this or any meeting and Kevin Ryan has a superb strike rate with longshots.
 
Tuesday, Coventry Stks - Angelo Buonarroti 40/1, 5 places - this is a pure hunch. He's an Amo Racing horse so I presume they have some kind of line as to his ability in order to send him here from Norway for his career debut.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Tuesday, Coventry Stks - Angelo Buonarroti 40/1, 5 places - this is a pure hunch. He's an Amo Racing horse so I presume they have some kind of line as to his ability in order to send him here from Norway for his career debut.
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Been done before.
Chief Singer won this on his 2yo debut.
I'll be surprised if he turns out half as good as him. Best of luck with that !
P. COLES horse is one that strikes me as a lively longshore. His maiden gas thrown up a couple of subsequent winners.
 
King Charles/Kings Stand - Vadream 66/1, 4 places - rated 108 at her peak last season, the equivalent of 111 once the allowance is factored in, so only 3lbs (about ¾ length) behind the top on ORs and would just need normal luck in running to be in the mix in what is a piss-poor race for a G1. I don't buy into the popular conception that she needs give in the ground. She has plenty of decent form on a sound surface.
 
Desert Orchid said:
King Charles/Kings Stand - Vadream 66/1, 4 places - rated 108 at her peak last season, the equivalent of 111 once the allowance is factored in, so only 3lbs (about ¾ length) behind the top on ORs and would just need normal luck in running to be in the mix in what is a piss-poor race for a G1. I don't buy into the popular conception that she needs give in the ground. She has plenty of decent form on a sound surface.
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I think the race on Saturday is his best chance of causing an upset. He's better over 6f + he may get some juice in the ground by then. 50/1.
 
I haven't looked at Saturday's race yet but 6f races tend to be stronger in depth than 5f ones so I'd imagine the oppo will be that much stronger.
 
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