The 2024 Longshot Thread

SJP - Unquestionable 33/1 - won the Breeders’ Cup Turf and holds a string of G1 entries. They might have an autumn campaign in mind for him but I suspect he is some way better than the 114 off which he started this season.
 
Ascot Stks - The Grand Visir 40/1, 5 places - top on my figures on account of a plummeting mark but has run well over the extended distance races here before, winning this race off 100 in 2019 and off 87 now.

Also, Nusret 25/1, 5 places - potentially well-in relative to his hurdles mark but I'm not sure about the trip. For this kind of race I much prefer staying hurdlers and he's never raced beyond 2m1f over hurdles.

And... Get Shirty, of course, 40/1, 5 places - been mentioned several times lately by a few of us. Again, I'm unsure about the trip but in no doubts about his being handicapped to win a big one.
 
Wolferton - Cemhaan 33/1, 4 places - hasn’t raced over a trip this short for years but won over just a furlong further the time before last. Perhaps they’re experimenting on account of his stride pattern which suggests he should be fine at it. Only 2lbs off the top on my figures and Israr [top] looks an iffy favourite.
 
Wednesday, POW - Zarakem 20/1 - I reckon this could be the best of the French so the price looks too generous. Possibly throwing money away since the market principals will be hard to beat and there's no fourth place on offer but that's punting for you.
 
Hunt Cup - Regheeb 40/1, 6 places - I have stablemate Tempus in my top five ratings but Hollie Doyle rides this one so if it is thought better in than Tempus (22/1) then the price has to be wrong. It might just be drawn on the wrong side but that's the way this race can go.

(I plan to have three or four more longshots in this race and will hopefully remember to post them in advance rather than aftertime :p
 
Lucander 50/1 615 ascot
Ran on one paced in the 12f race last year along with Tyson fury but is 6lb better with tf.
Stablemate of Cemhaan who you would have thought would be better off in this race than the 10f race.
 
Outsider said:
Lucander 50/1 615 ascot
Ran on one paced in the 12f race last year along with Tyson fury but is 6lb better with tf.
Stablemate of Cemhaan who you would have thought would be better off in this race than the 10f race.
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Yes, top on my ratings so was always going to carry some cash for me too. I managed to get 80/1 (5 pl) this morning but he is pink across the board. I wouldn't be surprised if the Magnet Cup is the real target.
 
Same race, Drawn To Dream 50/1, 5 places - good form in G2/3 races in Germany last year, bred for this kind of trip (has already won over 2m4f) and interesting that they've brought him here for his debut. A bit of an unknown quantity but Osborne is nobody's fool.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race, Drawn To Dream 50/1, 5 places - good form in G2/3 races in Germany last year, bred for this kind of trip (has already won over 2m4f) and interesting that they've brought him here for his debut. A bit of an unknown quantity but Osborne is nobody's fool.
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Saffie's on as well. JO has (reportedly) had her since Dec (€180k), but deliberately hasn't run so as not to blow it for this.
 
Brilliant, jinnyj, and so unlucky Robicheaux.

I'm kind of kicking myself for not having the winner on my radar. Meehan keeps quiet about his horses but, like the Coles, he tends not to tilt at windmills.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race, Drawn To Dream 50/1, 5 places - good form in G2/3 races in Germany last year, bred for this kind of trip (has already won over 2m4f) and interesting that they've brought him here for his debut. A bit of an unknown quantity but Osborne is nobody's fool.
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Blo*dy 6th. :eek:
 
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