The 2024 'Should Be Odds-on' Thread

Desert Orchid said:
I'll have a good look at the race and reply, viking.
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BO did fiddle a couple but nothing dramatic (imo) so my disappointment at the run centres around why it didn't show anything from approaching the home turn.

I have to conclude it just wasn't fit (don't know how it looked beforehand) or wasn't letting itself down on the ground but it was a very long way below form and when it won over hurdles at the track it fairly scooted up the hill so it does have a finishing kick which wasn't there.

My guess is that another race is the plan but which?

The Hennessy?
The Ultima?
The Grand National?

It has now qualified for the GN and will be a second-season 8yo novice, the ideal type. If they get its mark down to 147 (from yesterday's 154) he'll get in at the bottom of the weights.
 
I hadn’t appreciated at the time but Ruby’s analysis on ITv which I watched back later showed that the horse was taking an extra stride at almost every fence. So it’s a jumping issue rather than being unfit IMO

Anyway you may be right and he’s being readied for something else but I’ll say no more
 
Bet 365 were offering 13/8 Wonder Legend on the 6.15 at Southwell. It never lasted long as of ever there was a point an go certainty it's this one...horse has a tremendous turn of foot and was a bit below par last time. I suggest you grab the evens with bet365:horse should be 4/7 at best.
 
I'll have a go at this thread.

Carlisle 2.30 To Chase A Dream.

A progressive and improving handicap hurdler who will win this today on his way to better things.

Admittedly a bit of pedantry involved, as he's only 6/5 best price with Hills now. He was around 2/1 last night though.

Still qualifies for this thread and will win today.

A must-include for your Sunday win doubles and trebles.
 
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He's a good horse, DO. I think he's on a steep upward curve. I'm interested to see where they run him next. He'll probably go up at least 7lb for that.
 
Marb said:
I'll have a go at this thread.

Carlisle 2.30 To Chase A Dream.

A progressive and improving handicap hurdler who will win this today on his way to better things.

Admittedly a bit of pedantry involved, as he's only 6/5 best price with Hills now. He was around 2/1 last night though.

Still qualifies for this thread and will win today.

A must-include for your Sunday win doubles and trebles.
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It appears he hasn't been raised from a handicap hurdle mark of 120.

I'm not sure I understand this.

If there was a 'top 100 best handicapped horses in Britain list' I think he should be on it.
 
It's because the race was on Sunday. The weekly adjustments only take into account the racing up to the Saturday. The adjusted rating will be published this Tuesday.
 
He's entered up at Cheltenham on Friday.

Anyway, I'll jump off the thread and keep future observations on the other threads now.
 
He's been declared for Cheltenham on Friday.

He'll probably be one of the market leaders. I can understand why.

He's got talent.

Sorry wrong thread.
 
Also entered on Saturday at Doncaster.

On Friday it carries a 7lb pen, so 3lbs well in.

On Sat it would be off its new mark.
 
Not an awful run by any stretch, although I'm not sure how he handled the track, and he looks like he does need further. Jockey wasn't too hard on him either.

Other days I reckon.
 
Just waiting for the final decs to come through before offering maybe one last candidate for this thread for the calendar year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just waiting for the final decs to come through before offering maybe one last candidate for this thread for the calendar year.
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Decs are through but the early 6/4 appears to have gone.

Tomorrow, Chepstow 1.40 - Nietzsche Has 11/8.

When Sir Gino and Majborough ran in the Triumph last season, Sir G didn't have an OR and Maj was 139. Sir Gino went to Aintree rated 145.

Here, the French horse already has a UK OR of 148, about average for winning the Triumph so we're already looking at that level of ability at this stage of the season.

The UK OR is hugely conservative relative to its French rating (73.5) which would translate literally to 162 but that has to be fanciful in the extreme for a juvenile and then you have to wonder how good are the ones that have been beating it in France!

Still, 143 is pretty lofty at this stage of the season. Last year Burdett Road would have been favourite for this when he was rated 137 (but didn't run due to the ground).

Nothing is guaranteed in racing, not even that Constitution Hill will win this afternoon, but if anything off this kind of rating were trained by Hendo or Mullins it would be 1/2 in this race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Decs are through but the early 6/4 appears to have gone.

Tomorrow, Chepstow 1.40 - Nietzsche Has 11/8.

When Sir Gino and Majborough ran in the Triumph last season, Sir G didn't have an OR and Maj was 139. Sir Gino went to Aintree rated 145.

Here, the French horse already has a UK OR of 148, about average for winning the Triumph so we're already looking at that level of ability at this stage of the season.

The UK OR is hugely conservative relative to its French rating (73.5) which would translate literally to 162 but that has to be fanciful in the extreme for a juvenile and then you have to wonder how good are the ones that have been beating it in France!

Still, 143 is pretty lofty at this stage of the season. Last year Burdett Road would have been favourite for this when he was rated 137 (but didn't run due to the ground).

Nothing is guaranteed in racing, not even that Constitution Hill will win this afternoon, but if anything off this kind of rating were trained by Hendo or Mullins it would be 1/2 in this race.
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Nice wee Christmas present...
 
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