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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Kempton 2.40

A few of us will remember Killybegs Warrior, who was with Charlie Johnston and had some really decent back form in 2023. Well, he's changed stable now to George Baker, and was gelded when switching too. The early signs are he's recapturing his better form. Granted, I wouldn't know exactly how strong his recent runs abroad were, but I do know he was second and third, which is a lot better than what he was doing in 2024. His handicap mark of 92 looks workable based on his best form, so while I can't get a precise handle on the level of opposition, I'll have a stab in the dark on Killybegs each way at 20s +.
 
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Desijo said:
Lope Harswell Brocklesby Saturday 33/1 Skybet
This is one of 4 for Roger Fell.
Is one of the first crop of Lope Y Fernandez who was a group 3 winner as a 2 year old and placed in group 1 races at 3.
There has been money for this one so I'm hoping it's been showing plenty of speed at home.
A bit of a shot in the dark, but the odds could seem generous come post time.
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I've added Harswell Calling another one of Roger Fells with jason Hart riding at 66/1 to Lope Harswell.
2 shots in the dark ,but nothing ventured.
Good luck all this flat season. I tend to do better over the jumps so any help would be greatly appreciated.
 
Desijo said:
I've added Harswell Calling another one of Roger Fells with jason Hart riding at 66/1 to Lope Harswell.
2 shots in the dark ,but nothing ventured.
Good luck all this flat season. I tend to do better over the jumps so any help would be greatly appreciated.
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Justice Twice interests me a little 28's yesterday and 25/1 generally today, trainer has had two winners recently from as many runners ......... I would sooner chance two or three at big prices than go for a fav in a race full of debutants
 
I know a couple of us have mentioned Beringer with the Lincoln in mind but I don't think anyone has mentioned him on this thread so I will.

Money appears to be coming for him so I reckon maybe someone like Paul Kealy is putting him up in tomorrow's RP.

Anyroads, I've gone in again to bigger stakes at 80/1, 6 places. Happy to have it well onside.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know a couple of us have mentioned Beringer with the Lincoln in mind but I don't think anyone has mentioned him on this thread so I will.

Money appears to be coming for him so I reckon maybe someone like Paul Kealy is putting him up in tomorrow's RP.

Anyroads, I've gone in again to bigger stakes at 80/1, 6 places. Happy to have it well onside.
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Hes either last or wins the thing. I got 3 figure odds on the exchange.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know a couple of us have mentioned Beringer with the Lincoln in mind but I don't think anyone has mentioned him on this thread so I will.

Money appears to be coming for him so I reckon maybe someone like Paul Kealy is putting him up in tomorrow's RP.

Anyroads, I've gone in again to bigger stakes at 80/1, 6 places. Happy to have it well onside.
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That will be some training performance to get him back to win this after only 2 runs in the last 4 and a half years - but at those odds it is worth a little investment to find out if it can be done.

I’m trying to not get too involved and instead use the race as a learning exercise for later in the season. Earlier in the week I had a little on Dashing Darcey at 66/1. My reasoning was pretty much covered in this morning’s The Front Runner email Chris Cook of the Racing Post sends out every day. Geoffrey Harker, his trainer spent 110,000 Guineas on this horse last Autumn - so at some point, he will want to be getting a return on that. Whether it is tomorrow, is the unknown. This coverage may be the reason he has now shortened to 28/1 best price. Other than that, I am just sticking with my original choices Whip Cracker and Toimy Son (he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on through the season). The latter has Warren Fentiman claiming 5lb (apparently booked for the ride 6 weeks ago). He looks a good little find and David Menuisier won this a couple of years ago using a 3lb claimer.
 
Mixed messages from Alan King in his Weekender piece:

really looking forward to getting Beringer back on course

third in the Lincoln back in 2019

still showing me plenty at home

rated 92 and he works like that sort of horse

sure to be rusty

may take a couple of races for him to hit top form

will have the first of those...provided the ground stays on the slow side


But I know from a few years of reading his column that his relationship with the truth can be blurred.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mixed messages from Alan King in his Weekender piece:

really looking forward to getting Beringer back on course

third in the Lincoln back in 2019

still showing me plenty at home

rated 92 and he works like that sort of horse

sure to be rusty

may take a couple of races for him to hit top form

will have the first of those...provided the ground stays on the slow side


But I know from a few years of reading his column that his relationship with the truth can be blurred.
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I don't believe anything a trainer says. Those last 2 words say it. All his best form is on good, good to firm.
 
Fingers crossed if you're backing Beringer ........I couldn't myself given his past issues and time off the track, I would say he needs more help from the handicapper too, he's only 4 pounds lower than his last win almost six years ago - that said if he is anywhere near his form when dead heating for third in this back in 2019 then the 80/1 would definitely look on the big side. Will be interesting for sure to see how he runs. Be Lucky
 
As co-owner/trainer of Beringer, King must surely think its worth putting the 10yo in first time up after 2 years, there must be easier races with these comments....

"sure to be rusty, may take a couple of races for him to hit top form"

80's 6 places, worth finding out for small pennies.
 
Lope Harswell is now as now as 12/1 and no bigger than 20's from an initial quote of 66/1 when odds were released for the opening race, one for some EW cash today is Justice Twice ( still a little 25/1 left ) ........ but it's anyone's guess in a field of 17 debutants.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Oliver Show (Lincoln) now qualifies for the thread having drifted out to 20s this morning with a few bookies.
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OS is out to 33s 😲😲in places and I've gone in yet again. If I'm gonna be wrong about something I might as well be wrong in style.

Then again, I've never shied away from farting against thunder.

My other original longshot fancies from earlier in the week also qualify for the thread.

Sean (was 40s on Thursday) has moved (Paul Kealy?) but I managed to get 20s.

I've also taken 33/1 Dual Identity and 40/1 Galeron as well as my wee bets on Beringer.

What I need to think about now is whether to back them in tricast combos. The three at the shortest prices should work out at well over 20,000/1, the three longest at well over 150,000/1 😎
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Kempton 2.40

A few of us will remember Killybegs Warrior, who was with Charlie Johnston and had some really decent back form in 2023. Well, he's changed stable now to George Baker, and was gelded when switching too. The early signs are he's recapturing his better form. Granted, I wouldn't know exactly how strong his recent runs abroad were, but I do know he was second and third, which is a lot better than what he was doing in 2024. His handicap mark of 92 looks workable based on his best form, so while I can't get a precise handle on the level of opposition, I'll have a stab in the dark on Killybegs each way at 20s +.
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20s+ into 8s or so.

I hope he runs well.
 
3:25 Curragh ( 7f maiden ) - Radial Symmetry (33/1) for Jim Bolger and Gabriella Hill (10). Jockey's great-grandmother rode a few winners.
A Dream To Share drops down in distance after finishing well over a mile two weeks ago.
 
Jayhawk said:
3:25 Curragh ( 7f maiden ) - Radial Symmetry (33/1) for Jim Bolger and Gabriella Hill (10). Jockey's great-grandmother rode a few winners.
A Dream To Share drops down in distance after finishing well over a mile two weeks ago.
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I would say the target for A Dream To Share is the amateur maiden at Galway followed by middle distance handicaps in the Autumn..
 
Knicks (6:00 Doncaster Sunday)
2lbs below it's last winning rating currently on offer at 12/1
Trained by David & Mick Easterby
Mick celebrates his 94th birthday tomorrow so would help pay for his birthday drinks.
Also ridden by his granddaughter Joanna Mason.
 
After timing or whatever, but I thought I'd bring this to your attention. On Friday I was looking at tomorrows Ulster National at Downpatrick. I'd picked out Peaches n Cream, about to win last years race, until he came down at the last. 9ib lower tomorrow.
I wasn't expecting a big price, but bet365 put him up at 25s. I was on this thread typing, to say yeah a real candidate here. Immediately they cut him to 11/1. Everyone else was going 16s.
I couldn't get a penny on. Lucky now to get 6s. Obviously I hope he gets beat 🤣
 
The Fixer (6.00 Doncaster) is an interesting horse to keep an eye on. Decent 2yo in France, lost his way last season before being bought by Scott Dixon. Had a few runs on AW, some of them promising enough. Perhaps return to turf will suit and on dangerous mark if it does. 40/1 with B365 was stand out price - just cut to 33/1.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
The Fixer (6.00 Doncaster) is an interesting horse to keep an eye on. Decent 2yo in France, lost his way last season before being bought by Scott Dixon. Had a few runs on AW, some of them promising enough. Perhaps return to turf will suit and on dangerous mark if it does. 40/1 with B365 was stand out price - just cut to 33/1.
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Reared up in stalls and withdrawn.
 
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