• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Longshot Thread

Mr Whatoxo said:
I quite like the look of Demnat in the 4.40 today. Ran very well on his first run for Venetia Williams after coming from France off a 981 day break. Poor efforts since (ran another 3 times in 9 weeks after long break) over longer and shorter trips, including at this meeting last year. Ran quite well last month on return to this trip and although 4lb out of chap, Ned Fox claims 3 of them back. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well. 50/1 until last night. Now at 40/1, but wouldn’t worry if drifts back out.

Also fancied Riann in this race. Ran well last year until bad mistake last year 4 out put him out of race. Now 6lb lower. Drift from 25/1 to 50/1 this morning tempers enthusiasm.
Click to expand...

Demnat is an interesting one. He travelled lovely and jumped pretty well until about 2/3 out in the Kim Muir last year, and is running off basically 4lbs lower this year (with the claim), so you'd think the shorter trip should help him out. I'm not sure if he seemed a bit awkward/reluctant in the KM last year, though? Maybe he had just ran his race and was tired. You can pay to find out at that price.
 
I may be going mad but I think Master Chewy has a chance in the Ryanair (15:20).

The trip is the biggest concern for me, but he otherwise looks pretty solid. He has beaten Djelo in the past (conceding weight), albeit over shorter trips/different tracks to today. I do wonder if Il Est Francais goes off hard, Protekorat follows, there are a couple of others who seem like they enjoy getting on with it that it might fall apart a little bit. It'll be some task to beat the fav, but if Sam Twiston-Davies can give him a quiet ride and then pick up the pieces late on? I've probably backed worse. 50/1 on 365 atm.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
I quite like the look of Demnat in the 4.40 today. Ran very well on his first run for Venetia Williams after coming from France off a 981 day break. Poor efforts since (ran another 3 times in 9 weeks after long break) over longer and shorter trips, including at this meeting last year. Ran quite well last month on return to this trip and although 4lb out of chap, Ned Fox claims 3 of them back. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran well. 50/1 until last night. Now at 40/1, but wouldn’t worry if drifts back out.

Also fancied Riann in this race. Ran well last year until bad mistake last year 4 out put him out of race. Now 6lb lower. Drift from 25/1 to 50/1 this morning tempers enthusiasm.
Click to expand...
Galop de Chasse (80/1) is a strange runner in the 5:20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase. Fairly consistent over two and a half miles - beat Kandoo Kid by a neck receiving 3 pounds in November 2023 - but the step up in distance is puzzling. Stable's Festival runners have been disappointing though In d'Or ran quite well on Tuesday. Martator and Victtorino ( pulled up in the Ultima for the second time) had done their winning earlier in the season at Ascot.
I hadn't noticed Demnat was running as I picked Gemirande in the tipping competition. Had a small bet on Demnat in the FWKM last year and in the shorter race today.
 
Last edited:
I'm flabbergasted that Dom Of Mary goes in the 5.20 today rather than the Midlands National on Saturday where he looked to be a bet.

I don't know what they're thinking of. I'll have to do him ew here on account of that. I thought they may have the Scottish Nash in mind but his OR of 127 wouldn't get him in there. It's so weird that they plump for a 3m2f here rather than 4m at Uttox. He's an out-and-out stayer to my eyes.

Anyway 25/1 for this and will probably drift.
 
Robicheaux said:
A couple on Thursday take my eye.
I'm on Jane Eire in the Mares novices at 50/1. Unlucky not to be unbeaten over hurdles. Possible there's plenty of scope for improvement. Sean Bowen booked.

I do think Bob Olinger is overpriced in the stayers. Favourite may need it softer + Bob is 3/3 at Cheltenham. 25/1.
Click to expand...
Yay. Off the mark at last. Nice odds too ! 🙂
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Kim Muir - Manothepeople can be hit and miss over fences, but his course and distance win in April 2024 was eye catching, with the serial Grimthorpe Chase winner Moroder in second, today's Cross Country winner Stumptown in third, and the Rowland Meyrick winner Some Scope back in fourth.

I've a feeling Fergal O Brien will have this fella spot on again tomorrow. Don't get me wrong, there's any number of horses with chances, and I wouldn't put anyone off anything really, but I feel this is a decent long shot anyway.
Click to expand...
Placed at 40's, better than a kick in the teeth!

Hopefully I'm on an upward curve in time for tomorrow. 🤣

Well done Des and all of you Bob O Linger backers.
 
I think Gentleman'sgame third against the big guns in the Savills Chase was franked well today by Fact To File.

He clearly needs a career best but it's not inconceivable he could run well again tomorrow and maybe grab third at a massive price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Mares' Chase - Shecouldbeanything, 25/1 - I’m going to take a punt on this one to live up to her name, at least as far as this race is concerned. She’s a first season novice who has been picking up valuable experience in modest company and might be ready to find those 10lbs I keep talking about, which would put her right in the mix.
Click to expand...

Money for this one too, into 12s tops, 11s generally.
 
Earlier in the week I had a small investment on Ontheropes in the Foxhunters @ 22/1. He’s now available at 50/1. Not sure why the big drift as he looked one of the more likely contenders and recently moved from Willie Mullins to the shrewd Thomas Mullins (his brother, think). I’m hoping the change of scenery may trigger a return to the decent form from earlier in his career.

In the same race, I had another small bet today on Take All @ 150/1 - doubt about staying the distance, but not a no-hoper and worth a go at that price.
 
Outsider said:
Midlands national
where it all began 25/1
Click to expand...
Great bet, if he has a clean round of jumping, which is a concern, he will be bang there. The way he travelled in the Welsh National before making a massive mistake and been subsequently pulled up was striking and he as been in my tracker since.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Great bet, if he has a clean round of jumping, which is a concern, he will be bang there. The way he travelled in the Welsh National before making a massive mistake and been subsequently pulled up was striking and he as been in my tracker since.
Click to expand...
Any concerns about the ground? I was keen on him for National Trial at Haydock and he was a NR because of the ground (if I recall correctly) because of the G/S ground. Looks like it might be similar tomorrow.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Mares' Chase - Shecouldbeanything, 25/1 - I’m going to take a punt on this one to live up to her name, at least as far as this race is concerned. She’s a first season novice who has been picking up valuable experience in modest company and might be ready to find those 10lbs I keep talking about, which would put her right in the mix.
Click to expand...

In the mix-ish. Third so a nice place return and my only bet in the race. A wee bit lucky but I was unlucky a couple of times yesterday so I'll take it. Claws back a bit of my County losses.
 


Write your reply...
Back
Top