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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Thursday, Aintree 2.55, Djelo 25/1 - his form would give yoyos a bad name but 25/1 does look a bit generous so I’ve taken that. On my figures he has just about as good a chance as anything else in the race.
 
Thursday, Aintree, 4.05 - Presentandcounting 40/1, 5 places (B365) - This race can be as much about jockeyship as equine ability and Derek O’Connor has the reputation of being the best amateur around. I don’t rate him the equal of the top pros, as many do, but he is definitely one of the best amateurs. He makes Presentandcounting attractive at 40/1. Connections must have gone to some lengths to persuade him to take the ride when there were many other more obvious possibles.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Aintree, 4.05 - Presentandcounting 40/1, 5 places (B365) - This race can be as much about jockeyship as equine ability and Derek O’Connor has the reputation of being the best amateur around. I don’t rate him the equal of the top pros, as many do, but he is definitely one of the best amateurs. He makes Presentandcounting attractive at 40/1. Connections must have gone to some lengths to persuade him to take the ride when there were many other more obvious possibles.
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I have had a little investment on this one too and Ramillies, also 40/1, hoping they can replicate some of their good form from earlier in their career. Hunter chasing often seems to trigger that.

Interesting that Ontheropes runs here. I was expecting him to head to Ayr for the Scottish National. Running on at the end of Foxhunters over 3 and a quarter miles when the race was over, so not sure drop in distance is in his favour. His rating has dropped nicely since he ran well in last years Scottish National.

Huw Edwards rides Gracchus De Balme in this race, so I guess there is life after the BBC 😁
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Aintree, 4.05 - Presentandcounting 40/1, 5 places (B365) - This race can be as much about jockeyship as equine ability and Derek O’Connor has the reputation of being the best amateur around. I don’t rate him the equal of the top pros, as many do, but he is definitely one of the best amateurs. He makes Presentandcounting attractive at 40/1. Connections must have gone to some lengths to persuade him to take the ride when there were many other more obvious possibles.
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Derek is a friend of Donald McCain and they are often together at the sales. It could be a plan but it could also be just a favour.
 
Thursday, Red Rum - Inedit Star 50/1, 4 places - a bit of a guess this one, to be honest, but it was off this kind of mark as a first season novice before the trainer (Tom George) took it to France when he moved there but it didn’t do anything. It’s had three okay runs for its new trainer this season and has had a nice break so could be one of the fresher ones in the race. It isn’t far off par for winning the race and the jockey will take off another five. It will be hard to get to the level of Sans Bruit and Hunters Yarn, if they run to their best form, but it could end up beating the others.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Red Rum - Inedit Star 50/1, 4 places - a bit of a guess this one, to be honest, but it was off this kind of mark as a first season novice before the trainer (Tom George) took it to France when he moved there but it didn’t do anything. It’s had three okay runs for its new trainer this season and has had a nice break so could be one of the fresher ones in the race. It isn’t far off par for winning the race and the jockey will take off another five. It will be hard to get to the level of Sans Bruit and Hunters Yarn, if they run to their best form, but it could end up beating the others.​
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Funnily enough, I looked at this one a couple of days ago. It had 2 Aintree entries at the time, but is going for the shorter option.

The reason I looked at it was after reading that Charlie Hammond was missing the meeting through injury. He said:

There's no point in rushing back. Aintree was the main target for the year with a few of the horses and I'm going to miss that now.
​
Stuart Edmunds is his main provider of rides - and he has done well at this meeting before, but it’s possible Nick Kent also had a target here that Charlie is missing out on. I thought it was worth a little punt at 50’s.
​
 
Galunngung 4 40 Aintree tomorrow 40/1
Would definitely be a fitting winner for Donald Mcain considering the remarkable achievements of his father and his once in a lifetime national legend
The selection has progressed well this season and ran consistently.
He likes to race prominently and if getting his own way up front may outrun his odds and take some catching.
Looks a big price in an open looking race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Aintree, 4.05 - Presentandcounting 40/1, 5 places (B365) - This race can be as much about jockeyship as equine ability and Derek O’Connor has the reputation of being the best amateur around. I don’t rate him the equal of the top pros, as many do, but he is definitely one of the best amateurs. He makes Presentandcounting attractive at 40/1. Connections must have gone to some lengths to persuade him to take the ride when there were many other more obvious possibles.
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Maybe it’s because the McCain runners have a little bit of Red Rums hair attached to their headgear…
 
Friday, 2.20, 3 longshots for me:

Beacon Edge 66/1, 6 places
Gin Coco 50/1, 6 places
Minella Missile 100/1, 6 places, all with Bet365

The first two are second- and third-top on my figures for this season. They are vulnerable to improvers but there is no guarantee that something will improve past them and those prices are huge.

Minella Missile has already been mentioned. He deserves to be that price on his current form but would be joint second-top on my figures on last season's form and you never know with this trainer.
 
Friday, Topham - Jetoile 40/1, 6 places - I'm going to have a decent win bet on one in this race but I feel no less strongly about this longshot who has probably been targeting this race all season and who is lobbed in on his best form. He went up to 150 for winning last season’s Old Roan and was only beaten 5 lengths off 145 in a £100+k handicap at Punchestown in the spring. I suspect that’s when this plan was hatched and they’ve done very well to get him down to 136 and the claimer won’t have any problem getting the weight down to 10-1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Topham - Jetoile 40/1, 6 places - I'm going to have a decent win bet on one in this race but I feel no less strongly about this longshot who has probably been targeting this race all season and who is lobbed in on his best form. He went up to 150 for winning last season’s Old Roan and was only beaten 5 lengths off 145 in a £100+k handicap at Punchestown in the spring. I suspect that’s when this plan was hatched and they’ve done very well to get him down to 136 and the claimer won’t have any problem getting the weight down to 10-1.
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On my short value list of 3 with Gentlemen De Me + French Dynamite.
Missed the 66s yesterday. Win only on the machine for me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Aintree, 4.05 - Presentandcounting 40/1, 5 places (B365) - This race can be as much about jockeyship as equine ability and Derek O’Connor has the reputation of being the best amateur around. I don’t rate him the equal of the top pros, as many do, but he is definitely one of the best amateurs. He makes Presentandcounting attractive at 40/1. Connections must have gone to some lengths to persuade him to take the ride when there were many other more obvious possibles.
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Just saw that Derek won a maiden p2p at Aghabullogue on him Jan 2019, duly bought him for 105k and then passed him onto McCain's. He rode him in H/C at Catterick 4 weeks ago so this may be coincidence /plan or returning a favour.
Interesting all the same; thanks for posting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Red Rum - Inedit Star 50/1, 4 places - a bit of a guess this one, to be honest, but it was off this kind of mark as a first season novice before the trainer (Tom George) took it to France when he moved there but it didn’t do anything. It’s had three okay runs for its new trainer this season and has had a nice break so could be one of the fresher ones in the race. It isn’t far off par for winning the race and the jockey will take off another five. It will be hard to get to the level of Sans Bruit and Hunters Yarn, if they run to their best form, but it could end up beating the others.
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Nice third (18/1 sp).
 
Grand National, Fil D'Or 80/1, 6 places.

I decided to get on this now and will go in again on Saturday if it drifts or if more places are offered.

It's the result of some lateral logic, if I can put it like that, because its chance would appear to be remote on the figures.

However, Sam Ewing is the stable #1 jockey and gets to pick (unless someone can tell me otherwise) first. The yard has five in the race, some of which I have some way higher on my figures and which the bookies have some way shorter in the betting.

So I have to wonder why Ewing has opted for Fil D'Or.

It has only raced once at 3m, which was a few weeks ago and it got him qualified for the race, then he was straight back down in trip again. He's a second season novice but they appear to have put a lot of effort into getting races into him, perhaps to build experience? Has running at shorter trips been about developing his pace, confident that he has the stamina?

As a first season novice it was rated 152 so it really should have gone on to be a 162+ chaser this year. What if it is, and they've been keeping it hidden with this race in mind?

All ifs, buts, maybes and coke-fuelled theories but given how highly I rate the stable companions' best form, I have to have a bit of the 80s.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Grand National, Fil D'Or 80/1, 6 places.

I decided to get on this now and will go in again on Saturday if it drifts or if more places are offered.

It's the result of some lateral logic, if I can put it like that, because its chance would appear to be remote on the figures.

However, Sam Ewing is the stable #1 jockey and gets to pick (unless someone can tell me otherwise) first. The yard has five in the race, some of which I have some way higher on my figures and which the bookies have some way shorter in the betting.

So I have to wonder why Ewing has opted for Fil D'Or.

It has only raced once at 3m, which was a few weeks ago and it got him qualified for the race, then he was straight back down in trip again. He's a second season novice but they appear to have put a lot of effort into getting races into him, perhaps to build experience? Has running at shorter trips been about developing his pace, confident that he has the stamina?

As a first season novice it was rated 152 so it really should have gone on to be a 162+ chaser this year. What if it is, and they've been keeping it hidden with this race in mind?

All ifs, buts, maybes and coke-fuelled theories but given how highly I rate the stable companions' best form, I have to have a bit of the 80s.
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Ruby Walsh included Fil D'or in his top 4 for the race on The Road to Aintree last night at 100/1 and it was also mentioned that Gordon Elliott had said that this might be his best chance at the weights announcement. Obviously that isn't a comment to rely upon, but I do recall him nominating Stuzzikini from an army of runners for one of the big Irish Handicaps at 33/1 and it did actually go on to win.
 
Monmiral/ Aintree hurdle Saturday 40/1
Has a few lbs to find with the best of these on official ratings ,but he excels at this course and with the decent going he can outrun his odds.
If he can reproduce his running when finishing in front of Strong Leader he can surprise a few better fancied rivals in this race.
40/1 looks huge.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Funnily enough, I looked at this one a couple of days ago. It had 2 Aintree entries at the time, but is going for the shorter option.

The reason I looked at it was after reading that Charlie Hammond was missing the meeting through injury. He said:

There's no point in rushing back. Aintree was the main target for the year with a few of the horses and I'm going to miss that now.
​
Stuart Edmunds is his main provider of rides - and he has done well at this meeting before, but it’s possible Nick Kent also had a target here that Charlie is missing out on. I thought it was worth a little punt at 50’s.
​
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Charlie Hammond would have been looking forward to ride Miami Magic in the 1:55 at Aintree on Saturday.
Stuart Edmunds only runner at the meeting (his latest two runners both won at Fakenham on Tuesday).
Brian Hughes deputises and 14/1 is on offer at Bet Victor.
 
Desijo said:
Monmiral/ Aintree hurdle Saturday 40/1
Has a few lbs to find with the best of these on official ratings ,but he excels at this course and with the decent going he can outrun his odds.
If he can reproduce his running when finishing in front of Strong Leader he can surprise a few better fancied rivals in this race.
40/1 looks huge.
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Agree.
 
Barnestormer said:
Charlie Hammond would have been looking forward to ride Miami Magic in the 1:55 at Aintree on Saturday.
Stuart Edmunds only runner at the meeting (his latest two runners both won at Fakenham on Tuesday).
Brian Hughes deputises and 14/1 is on offer at Bet Victor.
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Stuart Edmunds is on fire. 3 of last 6 runners have won, 3 were second.
 
Plenty of long shots to choose from at Aintree today. My best guesses are:

1.45 Jordans 20/1
2.20 Minella Missile 40/1 (backed at 100/1)
Ike Sport 50/1 ((backed at 66/1)
4.05 French Dynamite 66/1 (also on Ginnys Destiny & Excello at 20’s and 18’s respectively). Western Zephyr worth a £ ew at 66/1 too.
5.15 Kings Hill 80/1
 
2.55 - Royal Infantry 28/1 - I was going to leave the race alone because I think it is between the 'big 3' but there's a chance this one is overpriced. He's this price because he couldn't beat a field of donkeys at Haydock when he was 1/3. He was rated 135 that day for a reason and entirely expected to improve another 10lbs by the end of the season, so there's a fair chance he could be in the same ball park as the likes of Salvator Mundi and Tripoli Flyer (OR142) and Diva Luna (134 + 7lbs allowance), but he is much longer in the betting.

Of course, it's also possible they're already mapping out an ambitious big-money handicap route with him for next season. He could get into the Greatwood in the low 130s, then the Schweppes off around 137 and then maybe the County off 145. But he was one of the best bumper horses and expected to make up into a G1 novice hurdler plus the yard's horses are running well this week.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
2.55 - Royal Infantry 28/1 - I was going to leave the race alone because I think it is between the 'big 3' but there's a chance this one is overpriced. He's this price because he couldn't beat a field of donkeys at Haydock when he was 1/3. He was rated 135 that day for a reason and entirely expected to improve another 10lbs by the end of the season, so there's a fair chance he could be in the same ball park as the likes of Salvator Mundi and Tripoli Flyer (OR142) and Diva Luna (124 + 7lbs allowance), but he is much longer in the betting.

Of course, it's also possible they're already mapping out an ambitious big-money handicap route with him for next season. He could get into the Greatwood in the low 130s, then the Schweppes off around 137 and then maybe the County off 145. But he was one of the best bumper horses and expected to make up into a G1 novice hurdler plus the yard's horses are running well this week.
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Not a confident choice, but I did have a little ew last night at this price. He also had a wind op after that Haydock blowout.
 


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