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The 2025 Longshot Thread

I have to do She's Electric 6.25 Kilbeggan

Although 12yo, she's only had 13 races under rules and considering her age and the fact that she's been off for over two years, they've kept her in training.

I thought she showed a little touch of class as a lightly-raced hurdler so I simply must have a little interest here.
 
San 2.25 - Boombawn 20/1 - the price is disappearing. I was holding on for better than 20s but it hasn't happened and I got caught up with other stuff and nearly missed the 20s. Technically a first-season novice whose form took a good step forward last time and if it can do so again could be in the mix so maybe worth an ew pop in race otherwise best left alone.
 
San 3.35 - Edwardstone 20/1 - only two places but on my figures is third top after Energumene's best form and Jonbon, ahead of the 11/2 shot Il Etait Temps and I can't help thinking Alan King wouldn't be bringing him here to a course where he tends to run well if he was as past-it as the price suggests.
 
San 4.10 - Knockanore 66/1, 5 places - I can't let this one go unbacked. He was possibly not over his impressive Eider win and not suited by the heavy ground in the Midland National. It’s asking a lot for one so far ‘wrong’ but the race does have a history of such winners.
 
Postileo 6.45 Southwell. 33/1.

First time visor and decent 2023 form might give a better account than the odds suggest.
 
Con te Partiro 20/1 with Bet365 is quite generous. Only had one run on turf (his last one, which was disappointing) but can’t see why he wouldn’t be able to match AW form. Trainer in decent form and this one could go well.
 
Visionarian, 6:05 Punch
He seems to prefer the warmer months.
There's a whole host of reasons why he's 33/1, but sunshine and better ground might be enough to get him running closer to his best levels.
 
Thursday, 3:05 Punchestown - Gabriel's Getaway ( 11/1) - 2 mile handicap chase with 23 runners.

First run for over a year at Doncaster on 1st March (16/1) when beaten around 10l and 5th of 6th finishers in a race won by his illustrious stablemate Brookie ( runs in the G1 novice chase later on ). Form comments are " in rear, smooth headway on outside 3 out, pushed along and outpaced 2 out when not fluent, weakened last."
Trainer Anthony Honeyball won the corresponding race in 2021 with Sully D'Oc AA, and also won Punchestown handicaps in the following two years with Lilith and Kilbeg King respectively.
 
Semblance of Order 2.30 Punchestown 66/1 is interesting.

Only one decent run (of 7) over hurdles, his first, when he beat Eagles Reign over course and distance. That horse ran 2nd here yesterday, off 127. Wears cheekpieces over hurdles for the first time, having performed well in them and blinkers on the flat, achieving his best 3 RPR’s of 82 to 90 in that sphere). Last time out he was backed from 16/1 to 5/1 on the day of the race, but ran a stinker. It does suggest he may have some ability though.

Trainer Andy Oliver doesn’t train many hurdlers, but well capable of preparing one, so at the price, I thought he was worth a small interest.
 
Stoners Choice 4.15 Punchestown 50/1.

That seems a big price. His jumping is not always the best, but longer trip may help him with that. All his runs this season, following a 19 month absence, have been decent and he has won 3 times off higher marks in the past. Last time out was good effort, dropped a pound and Kielan Woods, with his only booked ride at the festival, takes over from 7lb claimer.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Semblance of Order 2.30 Punchestown 66/1 is interesting.

Only one decent run (of 7) over hurdles, his first, when he beat Eagles Reign over course and distance. That horse ran 2nd here yesterday, off 127. Wears cheekpieces over hurdles for the first time, having performed well in them and blinkers on the flat, achieving his best 3 RPR’s of 82 to 90 in that sphere). Last time out he was backed from 16/1 to 5/1 on the day of the race, but ran a stinker. It does suggest he may have some ability though.

Trainer Andy Oliver doesn’t train many hurdlers, but well capable of preparing one, so at the price, I thought he was worth a small interest.
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Nice one - best price now 28s
 
Punchestown 4.15
I Love My Baie (40/1 Hills). This fella got a quiet ride at Ayr on his first run for 10 months before running on well to finish 3rd. That gives some hope there’s more to come at today’s trip. Slevin prefers the other Munir & Souede runner but I’m happy to take a chance at the price
 
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Nwm 1.45

Two against the field for me, my only two bets in the race:

Aberama Gold 25/1, 4 places - best form last season was here a year ago at the Craven meeting and he’s 12lbs lower now, plus the smart claimer takes off another five and can do the weight comfortably.

Silky Wilkie 28/1, 4pl & 22/1 5pl - hit some form in the second half of last season and was an excellent runner-up in the Ayr Gold Cup. He is now no fewer than 17lbs better off for three lengths with the winner that day, Lethal Levi. There has to be a chance his campaign since has been about getting him right back down the weights in order to give him a chance in a race like this whenever he can get in.
 
Tomorrow, 1000G, three outsiders for the sake of an interest since I can't really see past the top two:

Flight 33/1
Elwateen 33/1
Chantilly Lace 25/1

Flight is presumably thought better than Simmering (OR 109) based on jockey bookings. Beckett (Chantilly Lace) doesn’t run no-hopers at this level and Elwateen is the only Shadwell filly with mile classic entries so is presumably highly regarded too.

I reckon the best I can hope for is a place return from maybe one but I'll be happy if they outrun their odds.
 
We know all about Faylaq's somewhat 'idiosyncratic' racing career. Once again he came there when it was all over, the story of so many of his runs.

Although, imo, he's not really any kind of betting opportunity (ever) on account of he seems to have his own ideas, In a race like this (2.35 Ham) , where canny old jimmy can pop him in at the top of the weights, he gives an opportunity to consider one of Goldie's other runners, near the bottom of the weights, Al Nayef.

He's had just the three runs and now qualifies for this handicap over a new distance. At 33/1, he looks quite interesting to me. Worth an ew.
 
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Story of my racing life with Al Nayef finishing really well to finish fourth btn 1/2L.

On my headstone, I'll have inscribed "Late headway, never nearer" lol
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Tomorrow, 1000G, three outsiders for the sake of an interest since I can't really see past the top two:

Flight 33/1
Elwateen 33/1
Chantilly Lace 25/1

Flight is presumably thought better than Simmering (OR 109) based on jockey bookings. Beckett (Chantilly Lace) doesn’t run no-hopers at this level and Elwateen is the only Shadwell filly with mile classic entries so is presumably highly regarded too.

I reckon the best I can hope for is a place return from maybe one but I'll be happy if they outrun their odds.
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Second, fourth and fifth. They all certainly did outrun their odds. A good watch. I did think for a furlong that maybe Flight had it but the winner was really good.
 
Chester Cup - Vaguely Royal, 66/1, 5 places - sold out of the Gosden yard at the end of the Flat season and didn’t do much over hurdles but he won a £50k race last spring off 92 (90 here) on the AW at Lingfield and backed it up with a good run in the £150k race at Newcastle later that month. He was brought back to 1m6f on Turf and ran respectably off marks in the mid-90s so maybe shouldn’t be a 66/1 shot if the first-time cheekpieces work.
 
Saturday - Haydock Park 1:35 - Swinton Handicap Hurdle ( 17 runners, £45,000+ first prize ) Going, good ( 7.4 )

Tapley - Suzy Smith ( 14/1) - 2nd in this race last year when ridden by Elizabeth Gale (7). Sean Bowen has been booked to ride in this race. 6th at Aintree on penultimate run in the conditionals/amateurs handicap hurdle when, according to the trainer's Facebook Group, " the ground was a bit dead for him but is starting to turn to his more favoured faster ground now ".

Dr T J Eckleburg - Evan Williams (25/1) - 5th at Aintree in the Red Rum Handicap Chase and running for the first time over hurdles for ages here. Ground looks wrong as best form is on soft/heavy. The Fortune Teller's cliff horse.
 
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