• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Longshot Thread

Two so far in the Morebattle:

Cormier 33/1, 5 places, & Old Gregorian 40/1, 5 places

Cormier is no stranger to us on the forum but had a month short of two years away from hurdles before his comeback run last month. His OR went up to 139 (from 134) for winning this race in 2022 and off which he ran very well behind State Man in the County on his next start. His form nosedived after that and it's possible he was soured by two hard races. Whether they have him anywhere near his old self is unlikely but Ellison is nobody's mug and I'm not sure why he would even enter the old fella up for this and the three big handicap hurdles at the festival if he was gone at the game. The handicapper has maybe made their minds up for them as he is back down to 124 and young Maggs takes off another 5lbs so it's maybe now or the milk round next week.

Old Gregorian is a different type altogether, a lightly raced second-season novice who isn't too far off the top of my ratings and his rider, with a 19% strike rate for the trainer - 68% in the first four - takes off another 7lbs.

I'll be happy if one covers both bets.

(I'll copy this across to the race thread.)
 
Saturday, Nwb 3.45 - Booster Bob 20/1, 5 places - not far off the top on my figures but a first-season novice who has maybe been looked after with the decent spring racing in mind. Trainer-jockey combo is operating at a really nice strike rate and it would be heartwarming to see the Menorah colours return to prominence.

Edit - same race, Light N Strike 66/1, 5 places - would have a shout on its old form and has been running over hurdles but 66/1 looks more than generous. I’m on. Hasn't run over fences since June 2023 but had been a big improver that season. He's very lightly raced since with only four races over hurdles and with his hurdles mark well below his chase mark he gets in here off 139. Lots of ifs buts and maybes but it's interesting that they've chosen this valuable race to send him back chasing. For me, it's a punt worth chancing.
 
Last edited:
Undersupervision 3.15 Doncaster tomorrow 20/1 general.
Has a good record here at Donny on decent ground.
Has run moderately this season, but hopefully a return to this track and better ground can help.
Is the outsider of NTD's 3 in this.
Not sure if that's a good or bad thing?
In the Morebattle I agree with DO.
At the odds I like Old Gregorian, Aucunrisque , and cormier who can outrun their odds.
Best of luck everyone 👍🏻
 
Beau Balko 3.45 Newbury tomorrow 20/1 paddy power.
An open looking race where the selection has a very consistent record having finished 2nd the last 3 times.
He still looks fairly handicapped and has run well at Newbury in the past
Looks a value each way selection.
 
Just watched it a moment ago. Lovely surprise & covers me fully for the day.

Edit - just realised I was watching it live. I was out all afternoon and thought i was watching +1!
 
Desijo said:
Beau Balko 3.45 Newbury tomorrow 20/1 paddy power.
An open looking race where the selection has a very consistent record having finished 2nd the last 3 times.
He still looks fairly handicapped and has run well at Newbury in the past
Looks a value each way selection.
Click to expand...
Ran well to finish 4th
Nice bit of place money👍🏻
Kudos to DO and Barjon
Looked more likely to be pulled up than win for most of the way.
Top tipping,well done.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Two so far in the Morebattle:

Cormier 33/1, 5 places, & Old Gregorian 40/1, 5 places
...

Old Gregorian is a different type altogether, a lightly raced second-season novice who isn't too far off the top of my ratings and his rider, with a 19% strike rate for the trainer - 68% in the first four - takes off another 7lbs.

I'll be happy if one covers both bets.
Click to expand...

I see Old G was third at just 12/1. A nice place return and indeed covered both bets in the race and then some.
 
Saturday, Nwb 3.45 - Booster Bob 20/1

took 16s Thanks DO

In race i wrote this off, thougt id seen it all before but that was amazing whooor wow


my Saturday was done and dusted.
wow cheers big ears
 
viking said:
Bet365 doing a 25% winnings bonus on the 16.02 Leopardstown. Tyre Kicker for me in this race with his run at Windsor looking decent form behind Hasthing who ran well in a G3 next time. 1lb wrong but hopefully negated by the jockey’s claim. 6/1 looks a decent price
Click to expand...

6/1?? On a longshot thread???

You bin on the bevy, viking? ;)
 
Sorry thought I was on the What are you backing today thread. Fixed that now
 
Last edited:
Imperial Cup - We're Red And Blue 20/1, 4 places - this is a hunch bet for now and I'm half-expecting it not even to run. However, here's my thinking:

The trainers have two in the race and the other has Kielan Woods booked and sits at 10/1 tops in the betting. It's possible the jockey arrangements will change by Saturday but maybe not. WRAB is a first-season novice, an ideal type for this race, and his only entry next week is the County which he's unlikely to get into even under a penalty but the penalty will certainly help is chances.

It's rated 120 but three runs back it beat Jet To Vegas which was raised to 137 after taking the decent televised novice hurdle at Kelso on Saturday. It pulled up next time due to a bleed from the nose and then came out and hacked up in a weak novices' race, thus preserving its mark. Assuming Lump Sum stands its ground it will have to run from out of the weights but they might then put up a smart claimer.

The JTV form shouldn't be taken at face value but it shows the kind of improvement these novices can make and the County entry suggests they like the horse.

Stranger things have happened.
 


Write your reply...
Back
Top