The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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SlimChance said:
The mares novice race is a far better because it will be equally front end but to may find one that will collapse in price. I could see Limini going off 6/4.
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Quite likely to be 10/1 bar the top 2 but there's not much form to go on and you're at the mercy of improvers if you're only playing for one place.
 
Supreme-Unoriginal but Altior 7's buveur dair 12's.Ive read somewhere of them in two minds whether to send yanworth to the Neptune.looks like I've done my dough on moon racer.

Arkle-lami serge 10's garde le victoire 16.

champion-nichols canyon 7/1 -only worry would be the riding orders. My tent or yours-every time I see the 25/1 I have to have a few quid on!16's nrnb -will be damn site shorter when it wins a jumpers bumper in a month!

qmcc-dodging bullets overpriced 10's

Ryanair-al ferof 20's-can't win it but they know he's not a GC horse and this is the only conceivable option Imo.not for me but will be half that on the day
 
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archie said:
Quite likely to be 10/1 bar the top 2 but there's not much form to go on and you're at the mercy of improvers if you're only playing for one place.
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I'd suggesting backing Limini e/w @ 4/1. It was 9/2 last night with Boyles which was a serious e/w price. It could be 1.4x to place on the day.
 
links781 said:
Supreme-Unoriginal but Altior 7's buveur dair 12's.Ive read somewhere of them in two minds whether to send yanworth to the Neptune.looks like I've done my dough on moon racer.

Arkle-lami serge 10's garde le victoire 16.

champion-nichols canyon 7/1 -only worry would be the riding orders. My tent or yours-every time I see the 25/1 I have to have a few quid on!16's nrnb -will be damn site shorter when it wins a jumpers bumper in a month!

qmcc-dodging bullets overpriced 10's

Ryanair-al ferof 20's-can't win it but they they found out he's not a GC horse and this is the only conceivable option Imo.not for me but will be half that on the day
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I don't think Al Ferof can be seriously considered for any race. He was well held in this last year when everything looked in his favour.

There are two trains of thought on Nicholas Canyon. The first is that he is bombproof each way and the other is that his running style will leave him unplaced. Both sides of this argument are dogmatic so I will be steering well clear of him. On pure math the 7/1 e/w will be a coin flip on the day.
 
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SlimChance said:
I'd suggesting backing Limini e/w @ 4/1. It was 9/2 last night with Boyles which was a serious e/w price. It could be 1.4x to place on the day.
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I'd wait until it's declared to run in its prep race. As an ew bet I prefer ours at 6/1 but I am slightly biased and I'm already on at 14s.
 
archie said:
I'd wait until it's declared to run in its prep race. As an ew bet I prefer ours at 6/1 but I am slightly biased and I'm already on at 14s.
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If I were to take that 14/1 voucher out of your hard and give you 300k for the mare which one would you back based on the vibes from the yard and Ruby?***

*** = serious fishing
 
SlimChance said:
If I were to take that 14/1 voucher out of your hard and give you 300k for the mare which one would you back based on the vibes from the yard and Ruby?***

*** = serious fishing
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The mare is leased so I would grab the 300k.
Limini has been talked about almost as much as Min. She's obviously going well at home to have halved in price in the last couple of weeks but I wouldn't part with the hard earned until she's declared to run somewhere. After the Taunton race, Ruby said on atr that there wouldn't be many better than ours but his way would be to leave the decision as late as possible. If he's undecided I'd expect him to ride for Ricci but he would ride ours if he decides that she has the best chance.
At the current prices it would be no bet for me at the moment but I think that Myska at 6/1 is more attractive than Limini at 4/1.
 
archie said:
The mare is leased so I would grab the 300k.
Limini has been talked about almost as much as Min. She's obviously going well at home to have halved in price in the last couple of weeks but I wouldn't part with the hard earned until she's declared to run somewhere. After the Taunton race, Ruby said on atr that there wouldn't be many better than ours but his way would be to leave the decision as late as possible. If he's undecided I'd expect him to ride for Ricci but he would ride ours if he decides that she has the best chance.
At the current prices it would be no bet for me at the moment but I think that Myska at 6/1 is more attractive than Limini at 4/1.
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Thanks Archie. Having missed the 9/2 and with the last bit of 4/1 hanging my a thread your mare is a no brainer. As you said it looks like they could be clear of most of the firld so 6/4 to place is a steal for multiples.

It would be amusing if anyone was stupid enough to push her from 6/1.
 
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Min and Limini. Coincidence? I think not.

By the way - this forum is more interesting lately than it has been for years. Keep up the good work.
 
links781 said:
SlimChance said:
I don't think Al Ferof can be seriously considered for any race. He was well held in this last year when everything looked in his favour

He's not for me either but simply think he won't be 20's come the day! :D
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He's not 20's now and never has been

He's being kept fresh for Cheltenham, something they didn't do for his previous two Festival outings and a tactic which worked for the Peterborough Chase.
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Still over 60 mornings that she has to pull out sound plus another run. They're such fragile beasts which is why NRNB is so valuable.
 
an capall said:
Min and Limini. Coincidence? I think not.
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Wille loves a good subliminal message.

One yard mole laughed heartily as he told me a tale of a two bit owner in the yard who was trying to throw shapes in life. They had him in the middle of the Aintree racecourse chasing after his horse. Willie was trying to tell him something.
 
archie said:
Still over 60 mornings that she has to pull out sound plus another run. They're such fragile beasts which is why NRNB is so valuable.
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6/4 about an odds on shot to place factors that all in. Betting aside I hope you all get there in good health.
 
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Thanks Slim. Out of respect for the other owners there's only so much I feel able to say but I'd certainly put up any discouraging news.
 
SlimChance said:
Wille loves a good subliminal message.

One yard mole laughed heartily as he told me a tale of a two bit owner in the yard who was trying to throw shapes in life. They had him in the middle of the Aintree racecourse chasing after his horse. Willie was trying to tell him something.
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I'm guessing Alan Potts?
 
archie said:
The mare is leased so I would grab the 300k.
Limini has been talked about almost as much as Min. She's obviously going well at home to have halved in price in the last couple of weeks but I wouldn't part with the hard earned until she's declared to run somewhere. After the Taunton race, Ruby said on atr that there wouldn't be many better than ours but his way would be to leave the decision as late as possible. If he's undecided I'd expect him to ride for Ricci but he would ride ours if he decides that she has the best chance.
At the current prices it would be no bet for me at the moment but I think that Myska at 6/1 is more attractive than Limini at 4/1.
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Not far off according to the Sporting Life website and she should be out soon over here

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10127032/limini-in-frame-for-uk-start-for-willie-mullins
 
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That Sandown race is mid February. She was entered at Haydock before Christmas but didn't travel. As I said, as far as I know she's fit, well and liked but she hasn't run since May. She could well win at Sandown and start at 6/4 at Cheltenham but doesn't fit in with my betting guidelines.
 
More money on Betfair for Limini. One thing to bear in mind for this race is that, being a Grade 2, penalties apply for graded race winners. I think it's 4lb for G3 and 7lb for G2/G1. Trainers are likely to think carefully about the appropriate prep races and so should punters.
 
Current value for e/w multiples for me right now:-

Traffic Fluide (Champion Chase) 16/1 - As discussed on other threads he appears to be improving and could well finish in front of SDG at Cheltenham. If he does so then that looks good enough for a place. This race has been confirmed as his intended target.

Vibrato Valtat (Ryanair) 20/1 - It's a race that's falling apart at the seams which leaves the door open for one used to filling the places behind superior opposition. His runs behind the top 2 milers around suggest he needs further and again this is his confirmed target.

The New One (Champion Hurdle) 20/1 - I'm prepared for the barrage of abuse for this one but her me out. We know he's not going to win but when you start looking at the rest of the field I believe he is value. The Henderson pair have big question marks, Nichols Canyon may not turn up & Identity Thief's form doesn't read that well to my eye. That leaves a choice between Arctic Fire & TNO and I'm prepared to take the latter based on prices.

I'm going to stick these three in an e/w treble with consideration given to the w/o fav markets for TF & TNO.
 
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