The alternative Cheltenham Thread

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I’ve done these in EW trebles:

Champion Chase
Traffic Fluide 16/1 – same reasons as The Bear
Special Tiara 14/1 – Improved a little this season, unlucky behind Sire De Grugy & will hopefully get his ground. Should be able to place
Sprinter 9/2 – If gets there, will be in the 3

Arkle
Ar Mad 14/1 – Form looks rock solid and worth the chance at the price he can handle going left handed
Vaniteaux 9/1 – Stays on his feet, expect him to be top 3

Champion Hurdle
Arctic Fire 8/1 – finishes 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] doesn’t he?
Identity Thief 12/1 - Young improver & has a decent chance of making the frame

I’ve also chucked in the above with Altior at 6/1 and Thistlecarck 11/4 in small ew multis
 
The each way double on Identity Thief/Special Tiara appeals to me.The two of them need to be freshened up after hard races in December and HdB has done it before.
 
Bristol de mai looking one of the value bets of the week.Best Priced 12/1 for JLT-NTD has stated he's sending him there .Improved for a fence and to my mind the best novice at a fence I've seen all year.Looks to be improving and after last performance where he smashed up the field at Haydock (otago trail)he looks overpriced.Im sure they won't send him to the scilley at Newbury on Saturday and send him straight to the festival.
Ive convinced myself.
 
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I'm a big fan too links – particularly of his jumping. He’ll carry my cash at the weekend, but am holding fire on the festival until their (owners) plans are clearer.

Twiston Davis clearly thinks the JLT is the race, which I agree, but the owners & their rep keep hinting about other targets for him and L’ami Serge. Will hang fire until NRNB
 
BDM was available for the Scilly Isles at 8/1 on Monday night (I saw that then forgot about it [emoji20]) and is now 3/1 best. Seems like an intended runner to me guess we'll soon find out
Agree that waiting for NRNB seems sensible as far as the festival is concerned


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He looks ground dependent to be at his best though don't you think? It's not that he doesn't act on better ground but all his best runs have been on soft or worse. It's certainly my view anyway, and a JLT on quicker ground would surely suit the other major contenders much better.

I rate him highly, and I would be a player if the weather comes in, but not if it doesn't.
 
In the mares novice hurdle I suppose reputation is the thing - Smart Talk certainly beat a lot better field than Limini did at Doncaster and I should imagine will be rated about 145 now .
 
LUKE said:
The each way double on Identity Thief/Special Tiara appeals to me.The two of them need to be freshened up after hard races in December and HdB has done it before.
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Saw the HdB interview on ATR earlier this week and it was very obvious he favoured the Arkle for Sizing John-currently 25/1.
 
Not as good as 6/1,NRNB for the Ryanair but 11/2 to win any race for Road To Riches with Hills is fair.
 
edgt said:
Any ew combi bet should include Long Dog and Sizing John I would think.
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Stick Noble Endeavour 20/1 for the 4 miler in some mutis Eddie. If you click a monkey or more you can buy me a light beer in the summer, I'm watching my figure.
 
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Boyles have pushed Noble Endeavor to 25/1 for the 4 miler after he finished 2nd today. He would have been third obviously.

That seems a strange push to me.
 
I took 20/1 Vicente the other night for the 4-miler. I already had him rated higher than Black Hercules before today's race. I can't find a way (yet) of checking past results quickly (without going up the loft to check back through my old form books and I can't be arsed to do that) but I'm pretty sure the rating I have for him would win any of the last 20 renewals and I'm pretty certain Paul Nicholls said the other night that the race was his target.
 
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LUKE said:
Nicholls is having a mare at the moment.
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I might worry about that if he's still in the middle of one in the week leading up to Cheltenham but I reckon he's changed tack a bit this year.

Last year he was winning everything all year then only had an okay Cheltenham and Aintree. I think he's focusing on those two meeting this year. That plus most of his horses have been having a light time of it following their flu jabs. This is traditionally a quiet time of year as he'll be not long back from his Antigua holiday.
 
I'm not anti -Nicholls-if I was having a large bet he would be a trainer I would seriously respect.I would be seriously worried about some of the stable performances this weekend and doubt it's part of a master plan.
 
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