I went through his race record previously. I thought it was on this thread. And thought it was reasonably clear that he needs to be fresh, a view supported by Nick Mordin subsequently.
The Champion Chase 2010
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I went through his race record previously. I thought it was on this thread. And thought it was reasonably clear that he needs to be fresh, a view supported by Nick Mordin subsequently.
Nick Mordin??!! :lol::lol:
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Harbinger
At the Start
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Kalahari King's handicap win off 157 showed that he had almost certainly improved since the Arkle. However, FPTP probably didn't have an opportunity to show improvement until the Champion Chase due to his ground preferences.
I think they were both around the 157 mark (OR) after the Arkle, and are now both around the 165 mark. On that basis, Kalahari King underperformed by the 3 or so lengths he was beaten by FPTP. But, without further improvement, fighting out for second with FPTP was the best he could have been expected to do.
And said that he fell regularly.......that is an accurate comparison to Big Zeb. And just like MF, Big Zeb's jumping is improving, he hasn't fallen in over a year. I never compared their form other to say that BZ would not be too far behind him.
All fair points - the only point i would add is I felt KK would improve even more, and be the superior horse, though of course this didn't happen at Cheltenham.
Okay, here we go again... looking at his grade 1 wins.
His previous best performance was against Master Minded - he had only a break of 15 days.
He won the Punchestowns grade 1 novice race when he had a break of 31 days.
Then, on the flip side he had an 8 month break when winning the dial a bet chase, and 6 weeks when winning at cheltenham.
This irrefutably shows he does not need to be fresh, and that he is equally adept whether running fresh, or running after a break.
This isn't meant to start a whole other debate or wind you up (genuinely) but you need to consider the possibility that Murphy made a mess of his training prior to Sandown, if it wasn't just an off day, as he does not need to be fresh to perform.
His previous best performance was against Master Minded - he had only a break of 15 days.
He won the Punchestowns grade 1 novice race when he had a break of 31 days.
Then, on the flip side he had an 8 month break when winning the dial a bet chase, and 6 weeks when winning at cheltenham.
This irrefutably shows he does not need to be fresh, and that he is equally adept whether running fresh, or running after a break.
This isn't meant to start a whole other debate or wind you up (genuinely) but you need to consider the possibility that Murphy made a mess of his training prior to Sandown, if it wasn't just an off day, as he does not need to be fresh to perform.
Define a "parish" in distance terms
That 15 day break was after winning a hurdle easily on good/fast ground.
And before winning the Punchestown novice, he'd been turned over twice on heavy ground after breaks of three weeks and five weeks.
The freshness issue at Sandown was due to running on heavy ground three weeks earlier. On better ground he has a better chance of recovering quickly.
So now you are saying that Colm made a mess of his training before Sandown as that is the only reason you can think of for him running so badly? I agree trainers get it wrong, but the mistake he made was going at all and we've had that conversation before.
God you must have small parishes wherever you live. That means that Imperial Commander nearly beat Denman by a parish!!
10 lengths in a 2 mile chase is much more significant than 10 lengths over 3m2 1/2 - I suggest you look at typical handicapping to understand the difference. I thought this would have been obvious.
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I am not saying that about Colm - I am suggesting it as a possible reason.
I have proved using absolute FACTS that Big Zeb does not need to be fresh to perform. If you choose not to accept FACTS there is little point in me continuing to help you look silly.
The break between Navan and Sandown was 4 weeks, not 3. Your argument simply does not stack up and I have proven this over and over again.
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That's true.......so a parish over 2m is 10 lengths and over 3m must be about 15-20 lengths. Just want to be clear. A parish in Ireland is around 20-30 lengths and is pretty standard whether 2m or 3m.
Ah don't sit on the fence now.....it's just getting interesting.
Well I can add it to the bucket of other ones that you have pointed out :lol:
Harbinger
At the Start
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The official handicapper tends to use 1lb per length in all jumps races apart from in races involving extreme distances or going.
Eureka
EC1
On a break
think distances beaten has to be relevant to distance of race..officially handicapper uses 1lb per length over 2m or 3m buts its not a reality
being beaten 10 lengths at 2m is equivalent to beaing beaten 5 lengths at a mile ..so at 3 miles its 15 lengths...20 at 4 miles... thats how i would look at it anyway
being beaten 10 lengths at 2m is equivalent to beaing beaten 5 lengths at a mile ..so at 3 miles its 15 lengths...20 at 4 miles... thats how i would look at it anyway
Bar the Bull
At the Start
A good debate.
Cantoris' points compromised by being in with the Murphy stable. Hamm's by being wrong.
Cantoris' points compromised by being in with the Murphy stable. Hamm's by being wrong.