The Champion Chase 2010

Guess-work is right Melendez - but here goes anyway.

Mahogany Blaze - 156
Well Chief - 158+
Master Minded - 163

Master Minded's last two efforts have been well below even my quite conservative Champion Chase rating for him, and he strikes me as a horse who has a problem. It might be physical, he might just have been a super precocious Frenchie, or it might even be that he has a stamina problem over a stiff 2m in soft ground (unlikely, I concede, but possible?).

He rates a lay for me at current Champion Chase odds.
 
Could it be that Master Minded simply needed the run? Nicholls has gone on record as stating that he is a difficult horse to train so could it be he wasnt quite at 100%? It is worrying that Mahogany Blaze finished ahead of him but providing there is no injury to the animal then he is still the one to beat come Tingle Creek time.

Will be interesting if Big Zeb makes the journey over to Sandown.....
 
If Master Minded lost last Sunday without hanging and just looking tricky then I think fitness would be a fine excuse. But it is his performance long before fitness became an issue that worries me.

In saying that I think he will be much happier going right handed next time out at Sandown.
 
Galileo said:
If Master Minded lost last Sunday without hanging and just looking tricky then I think fitness would be a fine excuse. But it is his performance long before fitness became an issue that worries me.

In saying that I think he will be much happier going right handed next time out at Sandown.
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he'll be okay... people were retiring Denman at the beginning of last season.
 
Encouraging Murphy is happy to let the horse run, would prefer to see him wait a while before taking on the big guns again though especially around a track like Sandown.
 
I'd really like to see Barker come over for the Tingle Creek. Two miles right-handed are his optimum conditions, and this looks a better target for him than the Durkan (albeit he'd need to travel).
 
Goes without saying that the railway fences are a killer for tricky jumpers with loss of momentum being the issue rather than falling. But in fairness big Zeb jumps ok and then seems to make the odd howler, which could happen anywhere. Not sure that Sandown would be any worse a test than some easier courses....maybe
 
Master Minded misses Tingle Creek and is going for a bone scan according to the RP.

The horse was clearly wrong at Cheltenham - and to think the RPR though he was still a 170 performer on the day!
 
Galileo said:
Master Minded misses Tingle Creek and is going for a bone scan according to the RP.

The horse was clearly wrong at Cheltenham - and to think the RPR though he was still a 170 performer on the day!
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Absolutely. A 170 performance should be high class and there's no way you could say that about MM a few weeks back.

How did Timeform rate the race does anyone know?
 
I'm keeping an open mind about the value of the Cheltenham race. Well Chief was clearly ready to run for his life and his best form is very good. Given the level of Improvement the yard has got out of Imperial Commander over the summer, as well as the general form of the stable, is it unreasonable to conclude that their rep has also improved a lot over the summer?
 
Hamm said:
Absolutely. A 170 performance should be high class and there's no way you could say that about MM a few weeks back.

How did Timeform rate the race does anyone know?
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Well Chief 152
Mahognay Blaze 151
Master Minded 158
Newmill 147

All bar Mahogany below form, who was 147 pre-race.
 
Thanks David.

That definitely looks more right to me, though maybe I'd have had it a pound or two higher. My main view on the race was there was plenty more to come from Well Chief, and Master Minded's run was best ignored.
 
Anyone know what Mahogany's new official mark is? Should be out today.

Interesting NTD thinks the blinkers much-improved him. They didn't the previous 3 times he wore them. I think the muddling nature of the race 'improved' him.
 
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