The Champion Hurdle 2010

[SteveM]

People are underestimating the progress Solwhit has made---- he has won 7/9 hurdle races the last 3 of which have been G1. His trainer decided to stay away from Cheltenham last year as he felt he needed more time before he took on the "big boys'. He is very well regarded by Topspeed and was 8lbs clear of Hurricane Fly prior to yesterday.
He now heads for the bonus races---- Newcastle--Kempton and Cheltenham---- he will probably pick up the Irish Champion en route. The layers have it right now--- March will be between Solwhit and Binocular.

Very true Eric. Solwhit has certainly achieved much more than HF so far and is thus far capable of a much higher level of form. He ran to an RPR of 167 when short-heading Punjabi at Punchestown and has run to ratings in excess of 160 in his last three runs. HF has not achieved anything like this. His best is 158 (156 behind Solwhit at the weekend, which indicates that that is virtually as good as he is for now). Binocular sets the standard in running to a rating of 172 when beating Celestial Halo at Ascot. The only other hurdlers to have matched or bettered this around now are the brilliant stayers Punchestowns and Big Buck’s. Big Buck’s has run to a couple of 176s, which is the sort of rating Baracouda used to knock out.

On this basis I’ve gone in hard for Binocular while the 4/1 is still there.

 

[Guest_]

Obviously Solwhit has achieved more than Hurricane Fly - considering HF is only just out of novice company while Solwhit had the chance to compete against the best (and beat them) last year. That's a given....but if every race was won by a horse that had "achieved" the most then no novices would ever come through!

 

[SteveM]

Obviously Solwhit has achieved more than Hurricane Fly - considering HF is only just out of novice company while Solwhit had the chance to compete against the best (and beat them) last year. That's a given....but if every race was won by a horse that had "achieved" the most then no novices would ever come through!

It’s not a personal criticism Gal. Solwhit is indeed little more experienced than HF. Both are 5-y-os, Solwhit has appeared nine times over timber and HF seven. Binocular is also just five (also appearing just seven times over timber, but at a higher level) and has already all but won a Champion Hurdle.

The plain fact is that HF needs to improve a stone (best RPR of 158) against the likes of Binocular (best RPR 172) by March… what we are saying is that this in no way justifies that HF was being made favourite for the race and still remains a near favourite. He is by no means certain to progress beyond the level of Muirhead or Solwhit, which is still short of Champion Hurdle form. At the moment Solwhit looks the most plausible to bridge the gap. Having said that there also seems to be a ton of improvement left in Binocular, which would leave HF with and apparent impossible task. As Hamm points out exactly why HF is half the odds of Punjabi qualifies as an unexplained Arthur C Clark mystery.

 

[Desert Orchid]

...there also seems to be a ton of improvement left in Binocular...

That's the bit I'm not entirely sure about. I can accept that it's a possibility but until I see it with my own eyes - and I reckon I've seen an improved Celestial Halo this season - I'll favour the Nicholls horse.

 

[Grasshopper]

Steve, putting aside the fact that you are using RPR's as a measure, Binocular's figure is based on his Ascot run (rescheduled Bula) and not his Cheltenham run which was rated some lbs lower. On that basis, Hurricane Fly probably still has around 10lbs to find in a Champion Hurdle run at Cheltenham, after Sunday's outing.

Secondly, Solwhit - for my money at least - already has form in the bag good enough to land a Champion Hurdle containing Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular......granted soft ground. If there is a "gap to bridge" at all, it's not a very big one, and is based around questions about quicker ground.

I also fail to see how you can say "there seems to be a ton of improvement to come from Binocular" in one breath, and in the next completely write-off Hurricane Fly as if he has somehow suddenly become thoroughly exposed on Sunday. I can't see any basis for either position, to be honest.

HF's previous Champion Hurdle odds were a reflection of his promise, rather than what he achieved on the track. Now he has been out, and to an extent been found out, by Solwhit, his odds now better reflect his chance at Cheltenham. For me, the horse now has a bit to prove, and current prices are skinny enough, though I personally wouldn't want to be laying much bigger than Powers 11/2 myself - until, at least, he has run again.

His odds relative to Punjabi's are clearly hard to understand, but this is more a reflection of Punjabi's lack of 'sexiness' (as alluded to earlier by Gal), rather than their true chances in the next Champion Hurdle.

 

[SteveM]

Steve, putting aside the fact that you are using RPR's as a measure, Binocular's figure is based on his Ascot run (rescheduled Bula) and not his Cheltenham run which was rated some lbs lower. On that basis, Hurricane Fly probably still has around 10lbs to find in a Champion Hurdle run at Cheltenham, after Sunday's outing.

Secondly, Solwhit - for my money at least - already has form in the bag good enough to land a Champion Hurdle containing Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular......granted soft ground. If there is a "gap to bridge" at all, it's not a very big one, and is based around questions about quicker ground.

I also fail to see how you can say "there seems to be a ton of improvement to come from Binocular" in one breath, and in the next completely write-off Hurricane Fly as if he has somehow suddenly become thoroughly exposed on Sunday. I can't see any basis for either position, to be honest.

HF's previous Champion Hurdle odds were a reflection of his promise, rather than what he achieved on the track. Now he has been out, and to an extent been found out, by Solwhit, his odds now better reflect his chance at Cheltenham. For me, the horse now has a bit to prove, and current prices are skinny enough, though I personally wouldn't want to be laying much bigger than Powers 11/2 myself - until, at least, he has run again.

His odds relative to Punjabi's are clearly hard to understand, but this is more a reflection of Punjabi's lack of 'sexiness' (as alluded to earlier by Gal), rather than their true chances in the next Champion Hurdle.

Yes I’m using RPRs for the sake of convenience and for the sake of comparing like with like. They are the only set of ratings I have to hand with ratings for all of the races in question. RPRs say 14lb difference you say 10lb. I don’t want to quibble about that. It may well be nearer to 10lb if you say so.

On your second point, I’ve already said in agreement with eric that Solwhit could well be the one to bridge the gap, having short-headed Punjabi in a solid piece of form.

Re improvement. I perceive improvement in HF, Solwhit and Binocular, but believe the gap between HF and Binocular is too vast, as HF would have to improve a stone (or 10lbs) and then what Binocular finds in improvement – which is simply too much.

Finally, believe me when you get a return of 33/1 from a horse and all prices down to 16s (Punjabi), it’s as “sexy” as it gets! There is just no way HF should be a shorter price than Punjabi.

 

[SteveM]

That's the bit I'm not entirely sure about. I can accept that it's a possibility but until I see it with my own eyes - and I reckon I've seen an improved Celestial Halo this season - I'll favour the Nicholls horse.

Well I can see a deal of improvement in Binocular, but Celestial Halo and Punjabi are currently my joint next best picks (as previously mentioned).

 

[prince regent]

think its going to be between solwhit binocular and celestial halo the ground may be the deciding factor the softer it is the more it favours solwhit

 

[Desert Orchid]

I agree about Punjabi being relatively forgotten. There's one every year. I can go as far back as punting Past Master (Easterby's) ew at 100/1 because I thought he should be in the first five in the market. And as recently as Katchit, which I backed because I felt it was being ignored for no good reason. However, Punjabi was, relatively speaking, a bit of a surprise winner in a relatively iffily run race and will always be vulnerable to a big improver.

As I said earlier, I went conservative with the 2009 Champion Hurdle ratings but I'll check again my other figures for Binocular and post them tomorrow.

 

[SteveM]

However, Punjabi was, relatively speaking, a bit of a surprise winner.

Not to some of us. I advise you that he wouldn't be out of the first two... not my fault you don't listen.

 

[Guest_]

It’s not a personal criticism Gal. Solwhit is indeed little more experienced than HF. Both are 5-y-os, Solwhit has appeared nine times over timber and HF seven. Binocular is also just five (also appearing just seven times over timber, but at a higher level) and has already all but won a Champion Hurdle.

The plain fact is that HF needs to improve a stone (best RPR of 158) against the likes of Binocular (best RPR 172) by March… what we are saying is that this in no way justifies that HF was being made favourite for the race and still remains a near favourite. He is by no means certain to progress beyond the level of Muirhead or Solwhit, which is still short of Champion Hurdle form. At the moment Solwhit looks the most plausible to bridge the gap. Having said that there also seems to be a ton of improvement left in Binocular, which would leave HF with and apparent impossible task. As Hamm points out exactly why HF is half the odds of Punjabi qualifies as an unexplained Arthur C Clark mystery.

I did not take it as a personal criticism and apologies if it came across that way - I did not think it did.

For the record, Muirhead was beaten around 5 lengths in last season's Champion Hurdle behind the top three despite two poor jumps at the last two hurdles. It is not as if there is mountains of improvement needed.

I have gone in again on Hurricane Fly on Betfair tonight after very encouraging reports as to how he came out of the race.

Either way it looks a cracking Champion Hurdle in prospect and Solwith running against Punjabi at Newcastle in a couple of weeks should be very enlightening.

 

[Guest_]

Regarding McCoy's comments about Binocular...does that mean he is better or the best since Black Jack Ketchum?!

 

[Gearoid]

Ouch! Was BJK retired through injury? Id forgotten he existed.

 

[granger]

Ouch! Was BJK retired through injury? Id forgotten he existed.

Not through injury. I think he just fell out of love with racing and they let bygones be bygones

 

[SteveM]

...sadly he was at times not right. When he was good he was very good.

 

[SteveM]

Regarding McCoy's comments about Binocular...does that mean he is better or the best since Black Jack Ketchum?!

:lol:

...below the belt!!!

 

[SteveM]

I did not take it as a personal criticism and apologies if it came across that way - I did not think it did.

For the record, Muirhead was beaten around 5 lengths in last season's Champion Hurdle behind the top three despite two poor jumps at the last two hurdles. It is not as if there is mountains of improvement needed.

I have gone in again on Hurricane Fly on Betfair tonight after very encouraging reports as to how he came out of the race.

Either way it looks a cracking Champion Hurdle in prospect and Solwith running against Punjabi at Newcastle in a couple of weeks should be very enlightening.

Good luck to you mate. Whenever you have a strong idea you are invariably never far wrong.

One request though (it's probably my old age)... but can you stop referring to the horse as Solwith?

 

[Desert Orchid]

I had another look at Binocular's form last night. He opened the season with a demolition job against very moderate types before beating Celestial Halo on the latter's seasonal debut. CH got a strange ride that day, going miles clear before fading but not being beaten far. Ridden with more restraint next time he gubbed the 165-rated Osana albeit in receipt of weight.

I can't get my head round a rating of 172 for Binocular for the Boylesports (at Ascot). I just don't think it adds up.

 

[Hamm]

Osana was definitely not a 165 hurdler last year.

 

[Guest_]

Osana was giving CH weight and he was making his seasonal debut against a race fit horse wasn't he? If memory serves me correctly CH was far from impressive beating him.

 

[SteveM]

I had another look at Binocular's form last night. He opened the season with a demolition job against very moderate types before beating Celestial Halo on the latter's seasonal debut. CH got a strange ride that day, going miles clear before fading but not being beaten far. Ridden with more restraint next time he gubbed the 165-rated Osana albeit in receipt of weight.

I can't get my head round a rating of 172 for Binocular for the Boylesports (at Ascot). I just don't think it adds up.

Whether he was overrated on that performance or not he walloped Celestial Halo, Chomba Womba, Katchit and Crack Away Jack that day, which at the time (and subsequently) looked like a decent set of scalps. And of course he followed up with only a slightly inferior performance to that when all-but winning the Champion Hurdle itself. I didn’t think he would stay the Champion as well as Punjabi that day, but despite the result if anything it looked like he stayed a bit better as he would have probably headed the other two a few strides later.

 

[Gearoid]

Osana was giving CH weight and he was making his seasonal debut against a race fit horse wasn't he? If memory serves me correctly CH was far from impressive beating him.

I seem to remember Osana being cut for the Champim Hurdle after the race.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Osana (officially 165) was giving 4lbs and was beaten 3½ lengths.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Whether he was overrated on that performance or not he walloped Celestial Halo, Chomba Womba, Katchit and Crack Away Jack that day, which at the time (and subsequently) looked like a decent set of scalps.

CW, Katchit and CAJ did go into that race with higher ratings but thye were beaten too far out for the form to be taken at face value, so I didn't.

However, even if it could be taken at face value, the horse to take from the race was CH as it was his debut and was injudiciously ridden. Having said that, I thought Osana would turn the tables with CH (on his next run) later in the season and I was on that one on the big day.

 

[Hamm]

DO,

What you've shown i believe in the above 2 posts is you believe ratings (official or otherwise) when they tie in with your opinion of a horse but disregard them otherwise.