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The Cheltenham Festival 2025

How to Bet on Horses at Cheltenham
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I know it's an obvious statement, but If he can get up that hill and does not get too far behind he is the danger to Galopin. I have just had another nibble on him ew at 7/1. Statistically Inothewayurthinkin being a 7 year old has a good change, but I can only see him winning, if the obstacles get in Galopin's way.
 
Alex said:
I know it's an obvious statement, but If he can get up that hill and does not get too far behind he is the danger to Galopin. I have just had another nibble on him ew at 7/1. Statistically Inothewayurthinkin being a 7 year old has a good change, but I can only see him winning, if the obstacles get in Galopin's way.
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There's absolutely no reason why he should get behind, I can't see them going fast enough for that to happen. I remember well lingering stamina doubts regarding War of Attrition ÷ Sizing John. All unfounded.
 
Robicheaux said:
There's absolutely no reason why he should get behind, I can't see them going fast enough for that to happen. I remember well lingering stamina doubts regarding War of Attrition ÷ Sizing John. All unfounded.
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No you maybe right, it was just the way he was ridden in the King George, perhaps then they did not know if Banbridge would stay 3 miles or not.
 
Alex said:
I know it goes on, but is it fair on the punter ? Not only do you have to work out the form and decide which horse has preformed the best. But your also asking the punter, to read the mind of the owner/trainer, as to know when they will allow their horses to preform at their best.
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Hi Alex,

I can see that this can be frustrating, but I think it is all part of the puzzle we try to solve when looking at all races. I think it is a really important understanding how individual trainers operate and then try to read their minds a bit. It is also the Trainer’s job to have horses ready to peak on these big days, especially for these big owners. So I would just add it to the bank of information you acquire and use it to try to find winners.

I often stick certain trainers horses into multiples to cash in on the type of thing HDB did today (though not all that successfully yet - but I may only need to get it right once). I’ve not thought of doing this with HDB, but I am hoping he strikes again in the last race tomorrow, with Raglan Road, who was 50/1 yesterday and is currently 33/1. He hasn’t got the form (yet) to win off his rating, but showed a lot of potential early in his career, before 2 fairly lengthy breaks, and looks like he might have been targeted at this. Henry has 2 in the race and the other is 3rd fav and being well backed (Taponthego).

Good luck tomorrow, whatever you are supporting.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Hi Alex,

I can see that this can be frustrating, but I think it is all part of the puzzle we try to solve when looking at all races. I think it is a really important understanding how individual trainers operate and then try to read their minds a bit. It is also the Trainer’s job to have horses ready to peak on these big days, especially for these big owners. So I would just add it to the bank of information you acquire and use it to try to find winners.

I often stick certain trainers horses into multiples to cash in on the type of thing HDB did today (though not all that successfully yet - but I may only need to get it right once). I’ve not thought of doing this with HDB, but I am hoping he strikes again in the last race tomorrow, with Raglan Road, who was 50/1 yesterday and is currently 33/1. He hasn’t got the form (yet) to win off his rating, but showed a lot of potential early in his career, before 2 fairly lengthy breaks, and looks like he might have been targeted at this. Henry has 2 in the race and the other is 3rd fav and being well backed (Taponthego).

Good luck tomorrow, whatever you are supporting.
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I've got a bit of a psychological system that's worked once or twice when I used to bet online a lot, (nowadays I usually place bets in the mornings in the shops). Only a true Marble could think of this.

Just look for the trainer that looks like they are shitting themselves the most before the off especially in pre race interviews. Body language is everything.

If they are smiling and relaxed this is a big no no.

The more sweaty and shaky the better the horses chance.

Being lost for words and unable to speak means you need to up the stakes.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Hi Alex,

I can see that this can be frustrating, but I think it is all part of the puzzle we try to solve when looking at all races. I think it is a really important understanding how individual trainers operate and then try to read their minds a bit. It is also the Trainer’s job to have horses ready to peak on these big days, especially for these big owners. So I would just add it to the bank of information you acquire and use it to try to find winners.

I often stick certain trainers horses into multiples to cash in on the type of thing HDB did today (though not all that successfully yet - but I may only need to get it right once). I’ve not thought of doing this with HDB, but I am hoping he strikes again in the last race tomorrow, with Raglan Road, who was 50/1 yesterday and is currently 33/1. He hasn’t got the form (yet) to win off his rating, but showed a lot of potential early in his career, before 2 fairly lengthy breaks, and looks like he might have been targeted at this. Henry has 2 in the race and the other is 3rd fav and being well backed (Taponthego).

Good luck tomorrow, whatever you are supporting.
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Would you believe it I have just backed Taponthgo 9/1, did not realise it was Henry's. Thanks I will have a look at Raglan Road. I think it's more to do with Owner's requiring the prestige of having a winner, than the trainers fault. Unfortunately Henry can't afford to ignore his.
 
I don’t think it was a slow stayers hurdle ? Bob just had too much speed and class on that ground at his favourite track . He’s a legend .

Let’s not forget they found he ran against GDC in the Turners already carrying an injury . He appeared gone at the game even over hurdles then they found the injury and he came back to win the Lismullen and Relkeel ,chased home State Man in the Irish Champion and was robbed of the Aintree Hurdle by interference and hopeless stewards.
 
Alex said:
I know it goes on, but is it fair on the punter ? Not only do you have to work out the form and decide which horse has preformed the best. But your also asking the punter, to read the mind of the owner/trainer, as to know when they will allow their horses to preform at their best.
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I think there is nil evidence for this . The HDB team were flying in the autumn and then had a terrible run of form in Jan/Feb- far worse than in previous years . HDB primes his horses for Cheltenham quite often they then do not do as well at Punchestown - this year they were running as if they had a bug.
 
Alex said:
I know it goes on, but is it fair on the punter ? Not only do you have to work out the form and decide which horse has preformed the best. But your also asking the punter, to read the mind of the owner/trainer, as to know when they will allow their horses to preform at their best.
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You know that these are one target people.
You either go with them or you don't.
A client of mine had a decent horse with A L Moore some years ago.
Garryduff Mover won his debut bumper.
He also won a hurdle and a chase in a three year period, placed a dozen times.
Arthur planned a race six months before and worked towards it, he then won or lost it.
Some years later he had a filly with Joe Crowley; who got the filly handicapped and she won three races in three weeks before the handicapper caught up with her and Joe sent her home.
Who was right and who was wrong ?
 
Good morning everyone, in the words of Gavin and Lacey "What's Occuring" 😃.

Well in future I am going to add an extra factor to my betting, at the big meetings only especially Cheltenham. To stop me getting sued I am going to call this factor 'Age of Entitlement' 😆 or perhaps Robbery 'Rob' 😆 for short.

The question is do we have any 'Rob' on the last Day of Cheltenham 😔. I have just been through the runners.The good news is we as punters can rest assured assured that no 'Rob' is occurring today 😃.
 
Not an easy race to work out I will agree, DO!! I can only go on GB form so here are a few views of mine
Angels Breath got beaten FTO by an OK pointer but he'd be out of his depth here. Once useful, he was easily beaten by Shearer.
Angels Dawn I think has a huge chance. She's already won the Kim Muir here.
Fairly Famous should go well despite only finishing 3rd at Stratford behind Lift Me Up and What A Glance. FF has won here and Gina will be a huge plus round here.
I'd be surprised if Lift Me up is good enough despite his celeb owners! He's improved this season but I still think he's not good enough against some of these.
It's On the Line was unlucky to get mugged last year and is only 8 - DOC on board - what's not to like?
Other GB form I don't think is strong enough against these quality Irish runners.

So I've taken a huge pun on Plan of Attack - probably not as good but he was a decent horse and has been fiddling around in Cross Country races for a while. Sluiced in last time in a point and is a big price. But its one of my daft hunches so probably not one to hang your mortgage on!
 
How to Bet on Horses at Cheltenham
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