The Derby & Irish Derby 2009
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Is it?
I know this is a hard held belief with the English media that it is, but I suggest that someone from the 4th estate tells Aiden O'Brien. You only need to draw up a list of his Dante runners of the last 10 years, and then compare that against his runners in the Derrinstown to see which one he favours for what he perceives to be his better prospects
To some extent the point I'm making. Is he really that good? He's only followed the Septimus route of Prix Force and Dante, and has run with similar results, (although it would be disingenious to rate their respective Dante's as being similar I suppose). My own suspicion is that any hierarchy in O'Briens mind is probably based around the Derrinstown, and I'm increasingly of the opinion that he takes a positive view of Chester (if Fallon is to be believed)
...more than a belief.
The Derrinstown is also a good trial as Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral will attest.
But compared with the Dante, off the top of my head: Erhaab, Benny The Dip, North Light, Motivator, Authorized – have I missed any?
Surely the Dante's irrelevant this year though with O'Brien making up so many of the field, (which is the issue at hand - finding the winner). If we accept that both sides of the Irish Sea have a preference for their trials, then O'Brien having done a 1-2 with what you might deduce is his weaker candidates in the Dante, then he has all but rendered it redundant for 2009
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I wouldn't have said so... simply replying to Warbs question.
I happen to favour the Derrinstown winner this year, but the Dante also supplies us with a steady stream. This year's Dante was better than average, hence BBI and Freemantle (especially considering this was his seasonal reappearance), are likely to be pretty decent.
I don't get why it's irrelevant this year when it sets a higher benchmark than its usual high one.
I believe BBI will be placed in the Derby.
I think the point of them running so many this year is that they have a very strong team, not a weak one and want to dominate after not winning last year.
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It will all be rendered redundant when Sea The Stars trots up
There's always that I suppose.Like you I backed him in the Guineas, but I think of all of these he'll stuggle to get the trip in this critical test.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
It will all be rendered redundant when Sea The Stars trots up
A really lovely horse, and I think he will win more top races this year, but I think 12f will be too far for both him and Rip van Winkle.
It's set to get much cooler after today... I don't get the point though.
I was just crunching my own figures Steve, and to be honest there's a kind of pattern developing with the Ballydoyle improvers (one which might mean I'm looking at the wrong race mind you - but 'the Truth might out' on that one)
Black Bear Island hit 85.61 in the Prix Force and improved to 94.11 in the Dante (about 8.5L's)
Golden Sword hit 89.02 in the Noailles and improved to 97.94 in the Vase (about 9.0L's)
Essentially Golden Sword started from a higher base and appears to have held station with BBI.
The first out of the blocks was Fame & Glory who ran 95.23 in the Ballysax at a time when alot of the Ballydoyle inmates were seemingly needing their first run. An article I read last week suggested that the question that needs asking was how good he really was if he could put up that level when the stable was 'out of form'. I'm not personally convinced that 'out of form' would be the correct term, but he subsequently ran to 99.05 NTO in the Derrinstown (an improvement of 3.75L's). It would indicate to me that he was slightly ahead of the others, and his scoep to improve wasn't as great. Or to put it another way, if he improved at the same rate, he'd be out of sight by now. In any event, he remains at the head of the pecking order, and right now I'm far from convinced that Black Bear Island is a factor.
The one that went backwards on the clock was Mastercraftsman, but you might argue that he won with such ease in the Irish Guineas he wasn't required to stretch. My own opinion is that he's vulnerable to a searching pace and he's still to win a Gp1 off a fast pace. Indeed, both of his Topspeed career high marks (111) just so happen to have involved the only two times he's been beaten.
I know that there's a theory that suggests that a horse that gets within 7Ibs of his RPR and TS is normally evidence of a true pace.
MCM is 0 from 2 when he's done this, and 5 from 5 when he hasn't.
Even if I build in some tentative average at 4.5L's for improvement for O'Briens horses (it could be higher) then I'm increasingly wondering if I'm not looking in the wrong direction.
If Perfect Truth can break the course record at Chester by 0.38 secs (not sure how strong that record is given that 11.5F's isn't run by the colts) but what might there be left to come from her.
I'm probably thinking along the lines that the 8/1 about her or Philippina looks better than anything on offer in the Derby
Black Bear Island hit 85.61 in the Prix Force and improved to 94.11 in the Dante (about 8.5L's)
Golden Sword hit 89.02 in the Noailles and improved to 97.94 in the Vase (about 9.0L's)
Essentially Golden Sword started from a higher base and appears to have held station with BBI.
The first out of the blocks was Fame & Glory who ran 95.23 in the Ballysax at a time when alot of the Ballydoyle inmates were seemingly needing their first run. An article I read last week suggested that the question that needs asking was how good he really was if he could put up that level when the stable was 'out of form'. I'm not personally convinced that 'out of form' would be the correct term, but he subsequently ran to 99.05 NTO in the Derrinstown (an improvement of 3.75L's). It would indicate to me that he was slightly ahead of the others, and his scoep to improve wasn't as great. Or to put it another way, if he improved at the same rate, he'd be out of sight by now. In any event, he remains at the head of the pecking order, and right now I'm far from convinced that Black Bear Island is a factor.
The one that went backwards on the clock was Mastercraftsman, but you might argue that he won with such ease in the Irish Guineas he wasn't required to stretch. My own opinion is that he's vulnerable to a searching pace and he's still to win a Gp1 off a fast pace. Indeed, both of his Topspeed career high marks (111) just so happen to have involved the only two times he's been beaten.
I know that there's a theory that suggests that a horse that gets within 7Ibs of his RPR and TS is normally evidence of a true pace.
MCM is 0 from 2 when he's done this, and 5 from 5 when he hasn't.
Even if I build in some tentative average at 4.5L's for improvement for O'Briens horses (it could be higher) then I'm increasingly wondering if I'm not looking in the wrong direction.
If Perfect Truth can break the course record at Chester by 0.38 secs (not sure how strong that record is given that 11.5F's isn't run by the colts) but what might there be left to come from her.
I'm probably thinking along the lines that the 8/1 about her or Philippina looks better than anything on offer in the Derby
Thanks for your analysis. It is interesting. I would agree that the apparent lack of improvement for Mastercraftsman is an anomaly, as he won very easily, which after all is the point rather than running to your extent unnecessarily.
It’s pretty apparent to me that they are all improving after their first run and also coming on for their second runs.
BBI will be better again when stepped up, something you can’t say for all of the others.
I’m solidly with Fame And Glory, but am looking to BBI, Rip and GA to battle for places. The reported exponential improvement in Masterofthehorse from his work reports should also be noted. He’ll stay well also.
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95.94
I'm actually wondering if I need to build an improvement figure into the figures by way of a projection pecuiliar to Aiden O'Brien?. I normally reckon that a progressive horse improves between 2 and 4 lengths, and for the most part about 90% of such horses tend to fall within this scope with a degree of predictable accuracy. I've crudely given out 3L's for trialists and left those who've run in a Guineas unchanged thus. I'm wondering whether it would be fairer to reassess the O'Brien second time out runners differently though, and accord them a figure somewhere between 6.25L's to 7L's even? That would put Masterofthehorse on a projected figure of about 102.5 and he'd be another whose ahead of BBI thus. In fact, it would pretty well make him close to winning it!!! (God forbid that a horse with such a horrible name goes into the history books) but I'm increasingly thinking he's in play. If I use the more conservative estimate (and probably more accurate one) of 4.25, then Masterofthehorse is on 100.19, (about 1.25L's ahead of Fame & Glory) but that would be to assume that F&G has stood still since the Derrinstown. In effect I reckon they'd be pretty well close together, and he'd be the dark horse of the O'Brien hextet I reckon
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It's a shite name
Coolmore normally do much better than this with great composers and writers being to the fore (alright there's reasons to believe that perhaps Mrs Mag has a bit of a thing about Glenn Campbell) but for the most part they show a bit of 'class' in their names. Could you imagine a horse called something like 'Trained By The Best' for instance
If my figures are right, (which si far from given obviously) then he should be raising eyebrows at home (significant ones at that) those of the Kinane variety. I think I might retire to le jardin and try and re-rate this with an 'O'Brien improvement factor' (to be known as an OIF) in it. I had contemplated popping down to Trent Bridge for £15 and watching a bit of cricket, but having missed the better games yesterday (due to some shite publicity by NCCC) I suppose I'll pass it up, as England versus Scotland doesn't really appeal
I should say by way of final hand-grenade on the Dante, that neither North Light or Authorized would have won their Derby's if Yeats and Teofilo had stayed fit. But that would risk one of those meaningless and pointless debates so beloved by some on here (it won't help me find a winner on Saturday)
Coolmore normally do much better than this with great composers and writers being to the fore (alright there's reasons to believe that perhaps Mrs Mag has a bit of a thing about Glenn Campbell) but for the most part they show a bit of 'class' in their names. Could you imagine a horse called something like 'Trained By The Best' for instance
If my figures are right, (which si far from given obviously) then he should be raising eyebrows at home (significant ones at that) those of the Kinane variety. I think I might retire to le jardin and try and re-rate this with an 'O'Brien improvement factor' (to be known as an OIF) in it. I had contemplated popping down to Trent Bridge for £15 and watching a bit of cricket, but having missed the better games yesterday (due to some shite publicity by NCCC) I suppose I'll pass it up, as England versus Scotland doesn't really appeal
I should say by way of final hand-grenade on the Dante, that neither North Light or Authorized would have won their Derby's if Yeats and Teofilo had stayed fit. But that would risk one of those meaningless and pointless debates so beloved by some on here (it won't help me find a winner on Saturday)
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On the contrary, I can think of no better named horse to win the Derby in this of all weeks
:lol: you'd have to wonder...
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I don't think it is the best trial for the Derby.
I see your Dante and raise you a Derrinstown.
Sorry. Hadn't seen the earlier discussion.
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Having just nipped inside to gather the latest prices I'm left wondering if Damien Walker doesn't know something?
I can only assume they've got one helluva a liability on Masterofthehorse:blink: (if oddschecker's to be believed) Top pirced on 6 of the first 8, yet 2-3 pts lower than anyone else at 8/1 on MotH
I can only assume they've got one helluva a liability on Masterofthehorse:blink: (if oddschecker's to be believed) Top pirced on 6 of the first 8, yet 2-3 pts lower than anyone else at 8/1 on MotH
Apart from Gareth raising it a few posts back, I'm quite surprised at the lack of attention given to Sea the Stars. He looks the classiest horse in the race, and if he stays, it's very hard to see him being beaten. His pedigree to a large degree, and temperament to an even greater one, give him every chance.
A reproduction of his Guineas form will not be enough to win this Derby. He will not just need to stay the trip, but improve for it as well....
I think he will get it alright but if there is a 127-130 12 furlong horse in the race I think they will just be too strong for him in the finish.
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