The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Galileo said:
The same mugs who backed Mastercraftsman for the Guineas when Murtagh choose RIP?

I have backed Fame And Glory and I am happy with it, but I respect the opinion they clearly hold for RIP and wouldnt call it mug money.
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The Guineas choice was totally different as there wasn't any form on the board this year. If Murtagh had ridden F&G in the Derrinstown i find it impossible to believe he'd have made the same decision. People making punting decisions based on some jockey's soft spot for a horse are mugs. It's not even as if the stable's no1 has a half decent record choosing the right one.
 
Euronymous said:
The Guineas choice was totally different as there wasn't any form on the board this year. If Murtagh had ridden F&G in the Derrinstown i find it impossible to believe he'd have made the same decision. People making punting decisions based on some jockey's soft spot for a horse are mugs. It's not even as if the stable's no1 has a half decent record choosing the right one.
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I'm sure he was able to watch the video.

He has ridden the horse several times, and also in work. He would also be receiving information from O'Brien, and while there is every chance he is on the wrong one, to think this is made without Murtagh knowing how good FAG is would be wrong. Not a positive for FAG, especially with the man now on board.
 
:)

We both chose different ones to delete, with the reuslt that both got taken down simultaneously - don't think I've seen that before in real time
 
the only explanation I find is that the others want to have a good size bet on FAG and this decision makes the price longer,
I am on FAG adn would have prefered Murtagh on but I still think he is the best horse in the field .
 
Hamm said:
I'm sure he was able to watch the video.


He would also be receiving information from O'Brien, and while there is every chance he is on the wrong one, to think this is made without Murtagh knowing how good FAG is would be wrong.
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Watching a video and actually riding the horse in what was up to now his best effort are two very different things. As is the fact that the horse will improve for the step up in trip as well - something hardly guaranteed with RIP who will surely struggle to outstay Gan Amhras even if he can reverse placings with Sea the Stars.
 
Of course it might not have been Murtaghs choice at all...

Note that Fame And Glory is still widely the second favourite ahead of RVW.
 
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Hamm said:
Heffernan is not a Derby winning jockey, imo. I'd be pretty upset if I was on Fame & Glory, though perhaps the drift in price will compensate somewhat to those who want to back again. I would really have been hoping for Moore if I was on FAG, and I think O'Brien is letting blind loyalty come before the best jockey for his supposed best chance.

Black Bear Island has the assistance of the best jockey, and I think he'd be my pick of the Coolmore lot.

Regarding Freemantle, I don't think it's anything to do with whether he's good enough to run in the Derby. I would more think he just didnt sparkle in his gallop last week.
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I think that Heffernan is a good jockey. He has two Irish Derbies and a number of other Group 1 wins under his belt, so I don't see that as a negative. He is every bit as good as most of the British based jockeys.
 
Hamm said:
Sea the Stars will definitely improve for stepping up in trip, it's just whether it's 1m2 or 1m4. For all that Oxx has been his usual cautious self, I think the fact he immediately nominated this as his next target says more than his words.

Turning it around, can anyone see why he won't stay?
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He's stoutly-bred on the dam's side and Cape Cross's statistics as a sire since 2004 are as follows: 5f - 20 winners from 185 runners (11%) ; 6f - 70/607 (12%); 7f - 98/832 (12%); 8f - 95/887 (11%); 9f - 37/239 (15%); 10f - 67/491 (14%); 11f - 14/106 (13%); 12f - 28/256 (11%); 13f and above - 8/80 (10%). In other words, a Cape Cross runner is as likely to win at 12f as he is at 8f.

He has a good chance of staying but I'm inclined to agree with Galileo's view that he'll need to improve for the step up in trip if he's going to beat Fame And Glory.
 
I finally got some time to do the ratings today - just one minor piece of the jigsaw to complete it but it strikes me that the Newmarket Guineas and Derrinstown form are some way ahead of the other 'trials'.

The fly in the ointment could well be...
 
Desert Orchid said:
The fly in the ointment could well be...
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Well if you're looking at similar types of figures as me? the Chester Vase.

I'm moderately happy I've got it covered though. The one that worries me are the Lingfield Trials which are riddled with question marks. I'm not worried so much about Age of Aquarius but whether I've got the right handle on Midday does concern me
 
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fly in the ointment

SOUTH EASTER

a really tenous piece of form reading/fitting here :p

South Easter beat Drumbeat 0.5 lengths at Chester

Drumbeat was the same distance behind F&G last year

SE will improve for the step up in trip so is probably more superior to Drumbeat than F&G was.

SE is definately a dark horse with more improvement than most in the race...could be owt...and the stable is hot at the moment...can see Haggas having some winners throughout the week.


told you it was tenous :)
 
South Easter is one of only three horses in the race who hasn't previously been beaten by another in the race.
 
The horse Kite Wood could still be one to keep on the right side off as he didn't go backwards last time out at York despite pulling hard early on he wasn't outpaced at any stage by horses with a fitness edge, he could certainly come on a ton for that and the extra 2 furlongs is not going to be a problem a lot can happen.
 
Oh piss off you lot - no-one is supposed to have spotted South Easter! Lovely looking animal who although he needs to improve to win the race, could turn out to be a decent horse.
 
ItalianStallion said:
The horse Kite Wood could still be one to keep on the right side off as he didn't go backwards last time out at York despite pulling hard early on he wasn't outpaced at any stage by horses with a fitness edge, he could certainly come on a ton for that and the extra 2 furlongs is not going to be a problem a lot can happen.
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Agreed, 25s is too big.
 
Right having given it a re-think in some areas, and finally having gotten round to levelling everything off at 9.0, (which adds to the case for F&G, and detracts slightly from the Chester runners)

1st....Fame & Glory
2.5....Sea The Stars
1.5....Masterofthehorse
0.5....Golden Sword
nk.....Gan Amhas
0.25..Rip Van Winkle
2......Black Bear Island
1.25..South Easter
0.75..Kite Wood
2.5...Crowded House
3.0...Debussy
3.25..Age of Aquarius
2.75..Montaff

Easy then!!!

Not only have I given you the finishing order, but also supplied you with the beaten distances too:p
 
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