The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Sea the Stars will definitely improve for stepping up in trip, it's just whether it's 1m2 or 1m4. For all that Oxx has been his usual cautious self, I think the fact he immediately nominated this as his next target says more than his words.

Turning it around, can anyone see why he won't stay?

One other thing ... everyone said last year Casual Conquest, on his Derrinstown win and breeding, would be a better horse at 1m4. Time has shown this not to be the case, and the relative speed showed by Fame & Glory in the same race, means I have not completely discounted that FAG may be better suited by 1m2. Just a thought.
 
Why Sea The Stars is still in the French Derby after this morning?.


About Fame And Glory
12f will improve him, the winner needs to be a 130 to win this year.
 
Hamm said:
Turning it around, can anyone see why he won't stay?
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Cape Cross and the fact that he travelled so well in the Guineas and never looked like being tapped for toe....maybe he is an exceptional horse but by the very nature of the test (Guineas & Derby double) he will have to be exceptional and they are rare.

Fame And Glory will stay the Leger trip if need be.
 
He travelled well, but didn't for one moment look 'just a miler'.

If Sea the stars was trained by AOB, he'd be 6/4, and would have half the post devoted to him every day.

Cape Cross can sire 12f horses, even without the benefit of a mare with as much stamina as Urban Sea. He is versatile as a stallion - this does not mean in any sense his progeny fail to stay.
 
Hamm said:
If Sea the stars was trained by AOB, he'd be 6/4, and would have half the post devoted to him every day.
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And you'd be saying he is far too short and a likely non-stayer....does Rip Van Winkle not tie down the Guineas form for you? :p

Of course Cape Cross are sire 12 furlong winners.....but they are few and far between in comparison to his other horses.

Like I said, Sea The Stars will have to be absolutely expcetional to win this particularly when there are so many horses in the race that look as though they will relish every yard of the trip.
 
Perhaps, yes, but he looks the most likely of any horse in the race to be exceptional to my eyes. Ground should also suit, but Kinane could be a slight worry.

Rip Van Winkle should be aimed at the Eclipse.
 
No reason why RVW can't run in both. Warbler's comparison with Oratorio is an interesting one, but Oratorio had significantly better 2yo form in the book.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Maybe just in case there's a downpour at Epsom and the ground goes against him?
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That is the reason. Oxx stated that STS would not run at Epsom if it were soft (said he'd manage it, but would need better ground to help him get the trip, that he was doubtful enough about anyway). Therefore they've left him in on the remote chance that he doesn't line up at Epsom.
 
Hamm said:
Perhaps, yes, but he looks the most likely of any horse in the race to be exceptional to my eyes. Ground should also suit, but Kinane could be a slight worry.

Rip Van Winkle should be aimed at the Eclipse.
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It remains to be seen whether Rip gets the Derby trip or just short of it, but either way he's likely to outstay Sea The Stars. However, there is a concentration of classy types who will get the trip this year, making it very tough for STS, as the O'Brien horses will ensure a strong pace.
 
An impressive Guineas winner who they all need to improve past, bred in the purple, breeding indicates he will stay, normally cautious trainer gave immediate go-ahead, likely ground will suit more than close market rivals ... 7/2 sounds a steal.
 
Hamm said:
An impressive Guineas winner who they all need to improve past, bred in the purple, breeding indicates he will stay, normally cautious trainer gave immediate go-ahead, likely ground will suit more than close market rivals ... 7/2 sounds a steal.
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Good luck. I love the colt. But he won't be on my mind for this.
 
normally cautious trainer gave immediate go-ahead
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My impression of Oxx's interview (morning line? not sure) on the subject of whether he'd stay, was that the colt's value would increase so much, that it was worth taking the chance, rather than him being particularly confident. I had him down as being the downbeat side of "not sure".
 
Melendez said:
My impression of Oxx's interview (morning line? not sure) on the subject of whether he'd stay, was that the colt's value would increase so much, that it was worth taking the chance,
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I would agree with that. There is no absolute reason why he shouldn't stay and if the ground is suitable they should let him take his chance.
 
Warbler said:
Having just nipped inside to gather the latest prices I'm left wondering if Damien Walker doesn't know something?

I can only assume they've got one helluva a liability on Masterofthehorse:blink: (if oddschecker's to be believed) Top pirced on 6 of the first 8, yet 2-3 pts lower than anyone else at 8/1 on MotH
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I'm guessing you're talking about The Nanny Goat's prices, Warbler? If so, Damian Walker will have had nothing at all to do with them - firstly, he was their PR man, not a compiler, and secondly, he left over six months ago.
 
Big shifts in prices on Betfair. F&G out to 5 and RIP into 5.8. Presumably Murtagh has made his decision so all the mugs are piling on.
 
It is indeed now official.

AIDAN O'BRIEN on Tuesday confirmed that Johnny Murtagh would maintain his partnership with Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas fourth Rip Van Winkle in Saturday's Investec Derby. The unbeaten Fame And Glory will be partnered by Seamie Heffernan, who steered him to victory in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, Pat Smullen will ride Age Of Aquarius, Ryan Moore is on Black Bear Island, Richard Hughes will ride Masterofthehorse and Colm O'Donoghue partners Golden Sword.

 
Euronymous said:
Big shifts in prices on Betfair. F&G out to 5 and RIP into 5.8. Presumably Murtagh has made his decision so all the mugs are piling on.
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The same mugs who backed Mastercraftsman for the Guineas when Murtagh choose RIP?

I have backed Fame And Glory and I am happy with it, but I respect the opinion they clearly hold for RIP and wouldnt call it mug money.
 
I wonder if Colm O'Donoghue had a choice between GS or BBI or was he assigned to be on the apparent pacemaker (GS) and set it up for others ?

Probably the latter.
 
The stable jockeys all sticking with their trial horses.

Huge opportunity for Heffernan, and Ryan Moore won't be too unhappy.
 
Heffernan is not a Derby winning jockey, imo. I'd be pretty upset if I was on Fame & Glory, though perhaps the drift in price will compensate somewhat to those who want to back again. I would really have been hoping for Moore if I was on FAG, and I think O'Brien is letting blind loyalty come before the best jockey for his supposed best chance.

Black Bear Island has the assistance of the best jockey, and I think he'd be my pick of the Coolmore lot.

Regarding Freemantle, I don't think it's anything to do with whether he's good enough to run in the Derby. I would more think he just didnt sparkle in his gallop last week.
 
Powerscourt said:
I wonder if Colm O'Donoghue had a choice between GS or BBI or was he assigned to be on the apparent pacemaker (GS) and set it up for others ?

Probably the latter.
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You'd be hoping the latter. With respect, and being a little harsh, though quite honest about it, if you had a full brother to High Chapparal who may well win a Derby, you are not increasing it's chances by putting COD up.

I think Coolmore could think about employing a top number 2?
 
Unless the rains arrive the ground looks almost certain to have the word firm in it by Friday...

Epsom end watering prior to forecast rain


By Jon Lees4.12PM 2 JUN 2009
EPSOM groundstaff completed what was likely to be the last significant course of watering on Tuesday with any further similar action likely to be "very limited" because of a forecast change in the weather.


Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper described the going as good, good to firm in places, on the Derby course after 6mm of water had been applied to the track but quicker on thestands-side sprint track, which is good to firm.

"We have put 6mm on the course and we will have another look in the morning," he said. "We have beautiful ground and we would love to be racing right now.

"The outlook for the weekend has changed and there is the possibility of light rain on Friday afternoon and the potential for rain to be around on Saturday as a system comes in from the Bay of Biscay.

"With cooler temperatures the track isn't going to dry out so quickly and with the potential for rain any further watering is likely to be very limited."

The Met Office is predicting a 10C drop in temperatures over the next few days from a high of 26C today with more showery conditions forecast for Epsom on Friday and Saturday.

A spokeswoman said: "By Friday it will be cloudy with showery bursts of rain and temperatures of 14C, a considerable difference. Saturday will be cloudy with not quite as many showers."
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(from Oaks thread)

If this is the case, and with the current forecast, I think the ground could be really quite quick in the Derby. A positive for Sea the Stars and Rip Van Winkle, and a negative for some of the Montjeu's perhaps?
 
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