The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Apologies I've been busy at work and unable to respond. But it seems you guys have just about covered it.

If Warbler has genuine concerns I'll be happy to address them, but suggest we move on for the sanity of this thread.

I suspect Warbler is being deliberately contentious, but I may be wrong.

If this is genuine then I think you are seriously missing the wood for the trees here Warbler.
I don’t see what else I can say... If I don't live up to your expectations I'm going to have to find a way to live with that.
 
Grey said:
Well put, but the dosage tool also tells us that certain other horses should also improve for the extra distance.

I'm already on Fame And Glory, but my reading of Steve's article points me towards Rip. He hits the sweet spot on the dosage index, had an interrupted preparation for the Guineas and Johnny Murtagh has chosen to ride him. I think I'll do a forecast on the pair.
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BBI is closer to the best match having a zero CD.

Rip makes it on to the short list, but others will stay better.

We don't need a system to know that Fame can quicken off a fast pace. The Dosage tells us he has stamina to spare. This is the type you want to be on although he is admittedly the top end of a quite narrow band (in fact outside it, but at the right end, so to speak). The system doesn't make him the ideal pick (normally a DI this low would suggest he needed further), but knowing what we do about the colt plus what the system is telling us I'm happy to know he'll outstay them (particularly as they are not going to hang about in order to get the Oxx colt beat).

I'd fancy him even more for the St Leger but I doubt he'll go for that. In the meantime as a relative value to others in the race I like Fame.

BBI is the closest to the sweet spot though (I've chosen him as runner-up).

And Rip (who I didn't back in the Guineas) does have a fair chance. A better one I think than STS (who I did back in the Guineas).
 
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Steve, I´d like to know your opinion about the German blood influence in STS pedigree. Lombard (St Leger wn and sire), Agio (St. Leger wn) and Espresso (Grosser Preis von Baden wn and sire of Sagaro ) would represent popentially 8 points in sts dosage figures if they were considered chef-de-race sires. I guess there isn´t enough data to support their inclusion in any stamina group, but are you happy to dismiss their influence in the Oxx trained colt ?
 
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As far as I understand it (and by all means correct me if I'm wrong SteveM), the dosage system makes the (incorrect) assumption that all progeny of a sire have the same qualities/levels of stamina, which seems to completely ignore the dam's side of the pedigree.

If this is the case it's nigh on impossible to make a case for Sea The Stars getting the trip; it's also very hard for me to take the dosage system at all seriously.
 
Sea The Stars 125
Fame And Glory 123+
Crowded House 120+
Gan Amhras 120++
Rip Van Winkle 120+
Black Bear Island 114
Golden Sword 114
Masterofthehorse 111
Kite Wood 110
Age Of Aquarius 109
Debussy 109
South Easter 109
Montaff 108


The big interest in this race, for me, is that so may of them could be described as having a real shout yet it isn’t a particularly big field. I did say I thought last year’s 2yos looked very good yet only a couple of these showed form in the top juvenile races.

It’s hard to put a ‘norm’ on a race like the Derby. Winning ratings, by my figures, have ranged from 118 for the poorest (Oath) to over 130 for the best but 124ish has probably been an average figure in recent years so for so many of these to have ratings already at 120 or more is unusual, especially since almost all winners and placed horses post improved figures in the race on the day.

I reckon the Guineas and Derrinstown races stand out as the keys but the potential fly in the ointment is Crowded House and if I can get 25/1 NRNB I’ll have something on him.

Sea The Stars struck me as an above average winner of an above average Guineas but I wouldn’t bank on his confirming the form with Gan Amhras at this trip. Rip Van Winkle wasn’t given too hard a race in fourth but I’m very much in the camp that says these twelve furlongs will stretch his stamina, possibly to breaking point. Gan Amhras, on the other hand, can be expected to run significantly better at the trip and I am more than happy to have a couple of 16/1 ante-post vouchers about him.

Fame And Glory slaughtered a very highly regarded Oxx colt in the Derrinstown and is probably the percentage call given how much the yard’s horses keep improving at this time of year. I will at least cover all my other bets with him and probably add a bit more to clear a decent profit. The current 4/1 is tempting but I’ll wait and see if I can get that with the best-price guarantee nearer the day.

I’m not too keen on the Dante form this year. Too many of the beaten horses were running off ratings that suggest it was not a hot renewal. Crowded House, favourite on the day having been ante-post favourite for the Derby all winter, disappointed but was subsequently found to have a very valid excuse. I think it pays to forgive a horse a bad run, especially if they can back it up with a good reason. To push him out to 33/1 (now best priced 25s) made him gobsmacking value but there’s still talk of him not running so the non-runner-no-bet concession is a must for anyone thinking of backing him.

Verdict

Selection: Fame And Glory
Danger: Gan Amhras
Best outsider: Crowded House
 
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Melendez said:
The Dosage tool is telling us that FAG will probably be at his best at, say, 14 furlongs. That is not to say he is not the best in the field at 12 furlongs. He has already achieved as much as many in the field at 10f and should "need" rather that "get" the extra distance.
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how many Derby winners won over 10f on soft ground as 2yo's I wonder?

could F&G be the Leger winner running a place in the Derby type of horse?
 
Nice write up DO. I haven't been able to resist putting more on as Fame is out to 5.5 on BF now. Ideally i'd like him to come in to the early 4s so I can lay some off or i'll have a bit more on than i'd like. Seriously awesome price - in fact both Classics have favourites that are begging to be taken on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Selection: Fame And Glory
Danger: Gan Amhras
Best outsider: Crowded House
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I pretty much agree but I'd replace Crowded House with Kite Wood.

I'm not playing until the day, hoping FAG continues to drift and if I can get 8s about Gan Amhras and 25s about Kite Wood too, I'll be a happy camper.
 
from an old spreadsheet..these are the average Dosages of 53 Group winning 12f winners

Brill...........inter.......classic .....solid........pro.........total.........DI.........CD
6.74--3.33--11.39--4.06--2.00--28.56--1.34--0.38
 
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trackside528 said:
As far as I understand it (and by all means correct me if I'm wrong SteveM), the dosage system makes the (incorrect) assumption that all progeny of a sire have the same qualities/levels of stamina, which seems to completely ignore the dam's side of the pedigree.
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All of the sires on the dam's side can potentially contribute to the score. For example, Fame And Glory gets his 4 'Professional' points from his damsire Shirley Heights.

This probably leaves the tail-female line as something of a blind spot. Ironically, that's exactly where I reckon Sea The Stars' stamina will come from.
 
tail female line is imortant re stamina as you say Gareth

I get this feeling that we just might have a real superstar in our midst with Sea The Stars and probably don't realise it yet

the more I look at the race the more my head spins..ifs..buts etc

a good solid guineas winner who many of us thought beforehand ...not all like :)...was using the guineas as a prep for the Derby..by winning he automatically gets ? against his stamina..as we have done every time a guineas winner runs in the Derby

I am going to back South Easter and have a saver on STS I reckon...I'm sure AOB is trying the ...throw enough arrows and one may hit the bullseye game....way we are going I can envision a Derby with just AOB horses in soon :p
 
I think Fame And Glory will be favorite on the day and will win it in style, 9/2 is huge and should be taken,
 
Good to see someone's with me EC on South Easter! Mind you, a couple commented on him and at 40/1 I don't think he looks too bad. The other one I like is Black Bear Island.
 
Sorry guys but this wont be a post on the Derby but would like to say the last 3 pages have been a bloody cracking read - thanks
 
I think this is one of the best threads on TH, and many contributions have been great to read.
 
EC1 said:
just can't see a 10f soft ground 2yo winner having the required gears for the Derby Suny

and for that reason - i'm out :rolleyes:
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I think it's a fair bet that it's a race a High Chapparal would have won as a 2yo. For that reason I think it's a tenous reason to throw F&G out.
 
Age of Aquarius
Black Bear Island
Crowded House
Debussy
Fame and Glory
Gan Amhras
Golden Sword
Kite Wood
Masterofthehorse
Montaff
Rip Van Winkle
Sea The Stars
South Easter
 
trackside528 said:
As far as I understand it (and by all means correct me if I'm wrong SteveM), the dosage system makes the (incorrect) assumption that all progeny of a sire have the same qualities/levels of stamina, which seems to completely ignore the dam's side of the pedigree.

If this is the case it's nigh on impossible to make a case for Sea The Stars getting the trip; it's also very hard for me to take the dosage system at all seriously.
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This is a common misconception. It does recognise the dam side through the stallions (only those that show prepotent influence) in that half of the pedigree. The females on both sides are ignored as the sample of offspring is statistically too small to be meaningful.

Dosage is a straightforward stamina index but one that only recognises prepotent influence (i.e. that which is significant) rather than give equal weight to all constituents of a pedigree. This is a strength of the system rather than a weakness and helps to see past conventional ‘wisdom’.

A couple of examples:

Daylami – there was outrage when he was stepped up from a mile. The Dosage made it clear that he would improve at middle-distances.

Petrushka – I was derided in the press for insisting that Petrushka was screaming out for middle distance by one ‘expert’ who in turn insisted she was a sprinter after her Guineas trial. A couple of Group 1s later at 12 furlongs and I guess the penny dropped.
 
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On the subject of dosage, I have always found it to be a fascinating exercise, however, the thought has always struck me that the "spread" of DI's & CD's in just about every race I've seen them for renders the tool nigh on useless.

I am a well known advocate of ten year trends for races and every week I am outraged by the RP's suggestions that an event repeating itself 7/10 times is a trend. It is suggestive, but something which is wrong 30% of the time is not, in my opinion, suggestive of a requirement.

Dosage falls into that category for me.

I would, however, be interested in seeing statistics available which show actual distance requirements against dosage for a substantial pool of horses, because I do believe that it would show that there was some substance to the thing and may enable the user to apply some sort of weighting to an assessment.

On the subject of the Derby - a fascinating contest in which I fancy Fame & Glory and Masterofthehorse, although, in truth, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see just about any of them win.
 
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Well imo this derby is about as wide open as I have seen it all the main protagonists have a claim and even the outsiders like Golden Sword have a shout. Having backed the winner of the derby for the last 5 years im going for Crowded House this time around the 25/1 seems too big to me if you can forgive him the run in the Dante and if you can forgive Meehan for overhyping. Cant wait for saturday going to be a classic. Be even more exciting if RV puts the first leg of my double up in the oaks as well.
 
Golden Sword is surely going to be given very little chance given the likely nature of the ride he is going to get.
 
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