Julian Muscat
A major pointer to the rhythms of Saturday’s Derby surfaced earlier this week when Ballydoyle’s riding arrangements for its six runners were delivered to an expectant public.
The key booking was that of Colm O’Donoghue for Golden Sword, who made all the running under that jockey to win the Chester Vase. Bear in mind, however, that O’Donoghue also landed the Dante Stake, another important Derby trial, aboard Black Bear Island.
Had his Derby ride been down to him alone, O’Donoghue would surely have plumped for Black Bear Island. After all, Black Bear Island’s odds of 9-1 illustrate that he has far better winning prospects than Golden Sword, who trades at 40-1.
The inference must be that O’Donoghue is there to do a job at Epsom. He will ensure a strong gallop on Golden Sword, who performed precisely that function at Chester. And with Ballydoyle’s Age Of Aquarius another aggressive runner by nature, this year’s Derby has the makings of a lung-bursting renewal.
You can pretty much piece together the rest of the puzzle yourselves. With his stamina assured, Fame And Glory will be poised to strike if the early fractions are sedate. And if they are too strong, Black Bear Island and Rip Van Winkle will be well placed to capitalise from the rear. Bases covered.
Only now does the size of the task facing Sea The Stars become fully apparent. One half of the Ballydoyle cavalry will stretch his suspect stamina to the potential gain of the other. There will be nowhere for Mick Kinane to hide.
And if the stakes were not high enough, there is an intriguing subplot involving racing’s twin superpowers, Coolmore and Sheikh Mohammed.
Kinane rode Galileo to win the 2001 Derby when he was Ballydoyle’s stable jockey. Sea The Stars is a half-brother to Galileo - but with two fundamental differences. He does not race for Ballydoyle, and he is by Sheikh Mohammed’s stallion, Cape Cross. There’s a great deal of pride on the line.
Each Ballydoyle jockey will doubtless be warned against deploying team tactics, yet sheer weight of numbers confers an advantage in its own right. Six runners can create natural traffic but they can be expected to yield to one another in tight corners.
That’s precisely what happened in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last October. On that occasion O’Donoghue let the Johnny Murtagh-ridden Soldier Of Fortune up his inside, thus obliging the pursuing Out Of Control to race three-wide round the home bend. In such moments can races be won and lost.
It would be folly not to expect Ballydoyle to exploit its numerical strength. Any other stable in the same position would do likewise. Ballydoyle’s advantage is similar to that enjoyed by football clubs whose wealthy patrons afford them larger squads replete with proven internationals on the substitutes’ bench. They have a greater number of potential match-winners.
Nevertheless, Kinane is no fool. He will only get drawn into cameos of his own choosing. You can count on him to give Sea The Stars the best possible chance of victory.
To prevail, however, Sea The Stars is going to have to be an uncommonly talented racehorse. The deck is stacked against him by sheer weight of numbers.
