The Derby & Irish Derby 2009
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Galileo said:
Shame it wasn't 'good post for your first thread'
I accept that if O'Donoghue is under orders to make it a cut-throat race then Golden Sword has no chance. If he's allowed to set, or sit behind a fast, even tempo then the ones that come by him will have to be very good horses that truly stay a mile and a half. Of course, there may well be many such horses in the race - at 40-1 E/W I'm hopeful that there'll be no more than 2!
Market for this race tomorrow should be fascinating....none of the first three are necessarily that strong or weak in the market despite what the bookmakers are telling us. Imagine the weather will have a big influence on who goes off favourite.
EC1
On a break
Based on times the ground looks to be riding middle of Good...but horses that have won on G/S and fast ground have won today.
the last race time was a lot faster per class than any other race on the card...if that race was used as a marker then the rest of the race times today were poor...so I would say that Cloudy Star has run a real decent time.
Its
the last race time was a lot faster per class than any other race on the card...if that race was used as a marker then the rest of the race times today were poor...so I would say that Cloudy Star has run a real decent time.
Its
EC1
On a break
Based on times the ground looks to be riding middle of Good...but horses that have won on G/S and fast ground have won today.
the last race time was a lot faster per class than any other race on the card...if that race was used as a marker then the rest of the race times today were poor...so I would say that Cloudy Star has run a real decent time.
Its fair to say the first race wasn't a fast run race (3 of them took a keen hold] and Mac Love ran a speed figure approx 9lb below his OHR..this seems to fit in nicely with Cloudy Start running about 9lb higher than OHR
That leaves the Coronation looking a very poor speed figure ...was this a real slow early with an injection of pace?...it looks it on times.
Sariska has only run a 111 if I have guaged the first and last race times correctly ...the ground would have to be slow side of Good to give her a faster speed figure..and I can't see that being the case...looking at the race comments it also looks like the pace hotted up in the last 3f with horses getting outpaced by the leaders at that point....again pointing to the early pace not being that hot...but still faster than the Coronation.
quite a difficult card to speed rate as you would think teh filly has run a bigger figure if comparing her to the Coronation time alone..but the evidence suggests that race was very slow early and the Oaks just a little faster..but neither a true even pace.
let me know what your visual impressions of the Coronation and Oaks early pace were..I have not seen either.
the last race time was a lot faster per class than any other race on the card...if that race was used as a marker then the rest of the race times today were poor...so I would say that Cloudy Star has run a real decent time.
Its fair to say the first race wasn't a fast run race (3 of them took a keen hold] and Mac Love ran a speed figure approx 9lb below his OHR..this seems to fit in nicely with Cloudy Start running about 9lb higher than OHR
That leaves the Coronation looking a very poor speed figure ...was this a real slow early with an injection of pace?...it looks it on times.
Sariska has only run a 111 if I have guaged the first and last race times correctly ...the ground would have to be slow side of Good to give her a faster speed figure..and I can't see that being the case...looking at the race comments it also looks like the pace hotted up in the last 3f with horses getting outpaced by the leaders at that point....again pointing to the early pace not being that hot...but still faster than the Coronation.
quite a difficult card to speed rate as you would think teh filly has run a bigger figure if comparing her to the Coronation time alone..but the evidence suggests that race was very slow early and the Oaks just a little faster..but neither a true even pace.
let me know what your visual impressions of the Coronation and Oaks early pace were..I have not seen either.
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rorydelargy
At the Start
Early pace was unsatisfactory for all but the last race today.
EC1
On a break
thank goodness for that Rory 
now what I would really love to see tomorrow is a true run Derby and one horse swinging away on the bit two and winning by about 7 lengths in the style of Troy
if I imagine that scenario I can see only one horse proving to be that superior to the others...and its Sea The Stars
now what I would really love to see tomorrow is a true run Derby and one horse swinging away on the bit two and winning by about 7 lengths in the style of Troy
if I imagine that scenario I can see only one horse proving to be that superior to the others...and its Sea The Stars
rorydelargy
At the Start
I wouldn't disagree and I'd expect that the Derby will (as usual) be run at a sound pace.thank goodness for that Rory
now what I would really love to see tomorrow is a true run Derby and one horse swinging away on the bit two and winning by about 7 lengths in the style of Troy
if I imagine that scenario I can see only one horse proving to be that superior to the others...and its Sea The Stars
uncle goober
At the Start
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I thought the oaks was run at a really decent pace
EC1
On a break
if it was a true run race UG then the winner is way below the average Oaks winner as the time overall was nothing special..
a slow time points to ...either the early pace being slower than even pace...or if there was an even pace then the winner is below average by about 8/10lbs.
it would be of interest to do some sectionals on the 4 x 12f races at this meeting I think
a slow time points to ...either the early pace being slower than even pace...or if there was an even pace then the winner is below average by about 8/10lbs.
it would be of interest to do some sectionals on the 4 x 12f races at this meeting I think
Harbinger
At the Start
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Totally agree regarding the relative pace of the races. Watched the RUK replays this evening and it backs up what the times say - only the last race was run at a proper pace. The Oaks was next best, but doesn't quite make the "truly run" threshold. The ground was definitely on the fast side of good. A fine example of how difficult it can be to judge such things off the limited evidence of the first couple of races...
Gamla Stan
At the Start
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Wrong thread...
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
They're not surely. She'll only finish in single figures if less than 12 turn up. I had a decent sized bet on RV and was confident but the one thing to give me pause before the race was that in twenty years of punting i'd only found the winner of the Oaks once. Horrible race.
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Gamla Stan
At the Start
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See other thread Euro... That's basically what I confusingly meant.
EC1
On a break
just watched the Oaks on RUK..all through the first half of the race Hoiles is saying they have gone steadyish.
the sectionals from today ..from the start to the path at the top of the hill... these are about to the nearest half second as I had to use the clock on RUK picture
Coronation: 73.00 seconds
Oaks: 68.00 seconds
if the Oaks was a little slow early then as thought the Coronation was run at a crawl in comparison.. and by some way
the % of time spent in that first section..so we can compare tomorrows races on a level playing field.. without worrying about ground change..are
Coronation: 46.4%
Oaks: 43.7%
the sectionals from today ..from the start to the path at the top of the hill... these are about to the nearest half second as I had to use the clock on RUK picture
Coronation: 73.00 seconds
Oaks: 68.00 seconds
if the Oaks was a little slow early then as thought the Coronation was run at a crawl in comparison.. and by some way
the % of time spent in that first section..so we can compare tomorrows races on a level playing field.. without worrying about ground change..are
Coronation: 46.4%
Oaks: 43.7%
Sheikh
At the Start
Off out for the day, just my view of the race.
Sea the stars won't get the trip.
Can't see fame and Glory out of the first three, one to beat.
They may have trouble pinning back Golden sword (place material)
Don't fancy Rip (how dumb am I)
Some one told me one bookie was going 50/1 O'Brien first five home, sounds a decent bet.
Mr Bolgers runner ?, hmmmm........
Sea the stars won't get the trip.
Can't see fame and Glory out of the first three, one to beat.
They may have trouble pinning back Golden sword (place material)
Don't fancy Rip (how dumb am I)
Some one told me one bookie was going 50/1 O'Brien first five home, sounds a decent bet.
Mr Bolgers runner ?, hmmmm........
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I have :
£1100/250 Fame and Glory
£475/50 Gan Amhras
Although I don't fancy the favourite that much i'm tempted to partially cover my stake as he's surely the only danger. Would you?
£1100/250 Fame and Glory
£475/50 Gan Amhras
Although I don't fancy the favourite that much i'm tempted to partially cover my stake as he's surely the only danger. Would you?
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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