The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Epsom had no rain last night though it was just starting to rain as the clerk of the course was giving his report...not much expected though.

I think Fame And Glory and Gan Amhras will fight it out, and I expect big runs from Masterofthehorse and Age Of Aquarius.
 
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OK. Decision time for me.

Sea The Stars is the one to beat. The favourite. The one with the form. The class.

I have him on 125 for the Guineas and I think he may be even better than that over further. Some Cape Crosses stay. Will Sea The Stars see out the trip?

I reckon Sea The Stars could hit something like 127/128 at around 10f-11f but will be running out of stamina after that. He may be far enough in front to last out, especially if the stouter-bred ones are given too much to do, but I can still see him running to about 125 by the time he crosses the line, which would be enough to win a majority of Derbies.

Fame And Glory is on 123+ on my figures and I can see him upping that to about 127/128 at this trip, assuming all goes well in the race and that the ground isn't too fast for him.

Gan Amhras (120++) looks the big improver, being so stoutly bred yet running so well at Newmarket. I can see him running to about 127/128 at the trip.

Rip Van Winkle (120+) commands utmost respect, being John Murtagh's selection. I thought he ran a super race in the Guineas after an interrupted preparation and despite not being given too hard a time of it in the closing stages to finish fourth. He's another I reckon could hit 127/128 when 100% and at his trip, which would put him alongside Sea The Stars.

Crowded House (120+) is the only one rated on 2yo form, since he disappointed in the Dante. He was a very highly rated winner of the RPT last year and the winter favourite. If he's as good as Motivator or Authorized he should be able to run to about 125, maybe more.

I can't remember the last time we had so many classy contenders going into the race. Any one of them could win the majority of Derbies. How unfortunate for them - an fortunate for us - that they come together in one race today. For the first time probably since Nijinsky's race, it's an Arc for 3yos.

Chuck in the usual suspects from the trials and the supporting cast could be given each-way cameos in an ordinary Derby.

I don't think this is an ordinary Derby.

It's tremendously hard to call in terms of sorting out the winner but stamina is going to be so important I just have to side with Fame And glory and Gan Amhras.

As a footnote re Golden Sword, Big Mac made the point this morning about a win for this one being the ultimate coincidence on the 65th anniversary of the D-Day landings on Gold Beach and Sword Beach and a few people have rated his Chester time very high. I can't get his time rating for Chester much above 90 (on a scale to 126) before wfa, so can't see him being involved in the finish.
 
I can only see 2 horses winning this, Gan Amhras and Sea The Stars! I like Rip but can't see him turning the tables on the 2 in front of him over 12f. Fame and Glory has been impressive in his trials, but I'm not convinced now of what he beat. Masterofthehorse to be the best placed O'Brien runner!
 
An 11th hour revision to the result based on a tenuous projection form the Oaks. As I've mentioned previously, I've been forced to conclude (as indeed I'd grown suspicious) that Lingfield were running their trials over a longer disatnce than advertised. If Midday's improvement in the Oaks from her Lingfield trial can be taken as being indicative of this then although the method still looks flawed, a similar concession to Age of Aquarius is likely to be nearer to his level of ability than the otherwise raw rating.

1st....Fame & Glory
2.5....Sea The Stars
1.5....Masterofthehorse
0.5....Age of Aquarius
nse....Golden Sword
nk.....Gan Amhas
0.25..Rip Van Winkle
2......Black Bear Island
0.25..Montaff
0.75..Debussy
1......Kite Wood
2.5...Crowded House
 
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Warbler said:
An 11th hour revision to the result based on a tenuous projection form the Oaks. As I've mentioned previously, I've been forced to conclude (as indeed I'd grown suspicious) that Lingfield were running their trials over a longer disatnce than advertised. If Midday's improvement in the Oaks from her Lingfield trial can be taken as being indicative of this then although the method still looks flawed, a similar concession to Age of Aquarius is likely to be nearer to his level of ability than the otherwise raw rating.

1st....Fame & Glory
2.5....Sea The Stars
1.5....Masterofthehorse
0.5....Age of Aquarius
nse....Golden Sword
nk.....Gan Amhas
0.25..Rip Van Winkle
2......Black Bear Island
0.25..Montaff
1.75..Kite Wood
2.5...Crowded House
3.0...Debussy
Click to expand...

Just admit it, you took my views on board!!:p
 
I've still got Debussy wrong, so another edit due for the final result yet. I've always been unhappy with Lingfield though, but the jump I've made is a worry as it's a bit of a stab in the dark, but i still think it's likely to be nearer.
 
Here we go then


1st....Fame & Glory
2.5....Sea The Stars
1.5....Masterofthehorse
0.5....Age of Aquarius
nse....Golden Sword
nk.....Gan Amhas
0.25..Rip Van Winkle
2......Black Bear Island
0.25..Montaff
0.75..Debussy
1......Kite Wood
2.5...Crowded House


Now with Steve's dosage figures pointing to Sea The Stars coming last, that would give me O'Brien in the first four places at 33/1.

Of the 5 bets placed yesterday, every bloody one of them was noted as follows;

"not much room, no clear run over 1F out and enterign final furlong, no chance after"
"keeping on same pace when not much room towards finish"
"quickend to press leader on inner when badly hampered over 2F out, lost all chance"
"Disputing 3rd when hampered and snatched up 2F's out, no chance with leaders after"
"waekening when badly hampered, virtually pulled up after"

Now when it dawns on Murtagh that he's on the wrong horse, perhaps he might do the decent thing and make a beeline for Sea The Stars and run off the road, thus allowing the 33/1 about the first 4 to be landed. In any event, I can't get all six hampered surely, and if there is going to be any hampering it's much more likely I'd have thought that its Ballydoyle jocks blocking others off.

I've had worse days in terms of things that just kept going wrong, I can't think I've ever had a day when all my selections were noted as having met with interference though. In truth I think it only affecting the outcome of two, but even one of them would have turned in a neatish profit
 
I'm happy with my position on Gan Amhras and Kite Wood which is significantly less than my Oaks book but I am half tempted to just have a very large each-way bet on Fame and Glory like a mug and should be getting my stake back at least.
 
I'm sure later the question of how fast or slow they went early will crop up..as it did in Sir Percys year :p
these are the sectionals from a few Derbys and yesterdays races over 12f.....

the first figure is the % of time spent in the first split...that is from the start to the road at the bottom of Tattenham Corner about 3.5 furlong out.

Ideally I would like to get a marker in between the start and that path...there are other paths so I might try that to give an even better picture...the first section in this is quite large...but does still tell a story here though.
%..........path.......finish......

71.87% 114.6 159.5 HIGH CHAPPARRAL
72.27% 111.1 153.7 NORTH LIGHT
72.37% 112.0 154.8 AUTHORIZED
73.04% 112.6 154.2 ERHAAB
73.09% 113.8 155.7 MOTIVATOR

73.42% 114.0 155.3 SARISTA
73.57% 114.2 155.2 SIR PERCY
74.05% 117.3 158.4 SEA BIRD
74.12% 116.0 156.5 NEW APPROACH
74.38% 114.0 153.3 GALILEO
74.90% 117.6 157.0 ASK

to give a fair indication of what an even pace should be..the median % is 73.25%..higher than that is slower than even pace..lower is faster.

I've left the slowest one out of calculating the median (Ask) as it is just obviously not representative of anything like even pace and with such a small sample of times it skews the median.

Yesterdays Coronation is highlighted as being very slow in the first section and has the slowest early time here.
The Oaks was slower than even pace which explains Sarista being unable to record a fast overall speed figure.

The highlight looking at this is ...North Light..as he was very near the front of a fast early split and so did well to win his Derby. If you look at Erhaab & High Chapparrals Derbys those that were near the front of fast first section pace dropped back.

Its hard to believe that in North Lights Derby they went faster than Mr Baileys did in Erhaabs Derby in that first split...many believe Mr B went too fast in that race but the splits say he didn't..it was his failure to stay...not going too fast that stopped him.

Be interesting to see today splits
 
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Time suggests the ground is much the same...good (good to firm in places) but they finished fairly strung out and kicking the top off the ground.


Ground now officially "Good".
 
it looks to me that the ground is wet for a few inches and is probably faster just below the surface..this explains why fast ground horses aren't too inconvienced but why the times aren't showing fast as well....the top few inches are just slowing times a little

clearly this is what happens with fast ground when watered...as we have seen so many times
 
BBC seem surprised that O'Brien is bringing his horses in late. Do they not know his style. Even Colm does that having been a student of O'Briens. Why bring them in early when they could boil over. They run by the rules, one circuit is all that's required!!
 
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