The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

i could just see him running in leger too, a chance of history being made, hmm??!! but wouldnt mind seeing him in york. great to think he would retire to the Irish National Stud, but not before he is 5, please!
 
I'm glad he's not going, I do not think he could stay. I like the plan of Irish Derby, Irish Champion and either Arc/Champion Stakes. To me it is a more realistic schedule that a trainer would take with a three year old nowadays, not everybody may be happy with that, but i'd be greatfull if he runs about 3/4 more races this year, it's much better then some stars in this age.
 
73.25% is even pace

Derby

i timed to the path at 117.00 and the overall time is 156.74 =

74.64%..which is a very slow first section

I'll do them again but using a path at the top of the hill as well..that should show even more of the actual early pace...this method is too big a slice of the race imo..still shows the slow ones though
 
Doesn't Sea the Stars' victory reveal the unreliability of Dosage figures? (He was bottom of Steve Miller's table in Raceform Update.) You could argue that they didn't test his stamina properly; but I'm inclined to think that he'd have won whatever pace they had gone.
 
The horse has nothing to win in the Irish Derby. Most likely, one of the horses behind him today will win the race. For a reputation point of view, I would run him over 10f for sure, especially in the International and Irish Champion St.
 
Well his damn won the Arc owned by Christopher Tsui's father, so surely that will be the preferred route. Maybe after the Juddmonte or the Eclipse.
 
LBM said:
The horse has nothing to win in the Irish Derby. Most likely, one of the horses behind him today will win the race. For a reputation point of view, I would run him over 10f for sure, especially in the International and Irish Champion St.
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I agree LBM, but he is a Curragh based trainer who will find it hard to turn his back on his local track if the going allows him to.
 
Nicholas Clee said:
Doesn't Sea the Stars' victory reveal the unreliability of Dosage figures? (He was bottom of Steve Miller's table in Raceform Update.) You could argue that they didn't test his stamina properly; but I'm inclined to think that he'd have won whatever pace they had gone.
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You won´t have an answer to that question in this forum, Nicholas.
Make your own mind.

Regarding the pace of the race, sts over raced in the early part of the race. I don´t particulary think he was the best suited for the slow pace on the race.
 
i am puzzled why they didn't set a break neck pace if they wanted F&G to win..a thorough stayer imo

Oxx could not have organised a better race make up imo...considering the fact that beforehand he was ? over trip
 
The fact they're talking about the big 10f races immediately after this one suggests they think he might still be vulnerable over 12f. His stamina wasn't truly tested today. Even Rip appeared to be finishing well.
 
I think it is very depressing that the King George was not mentioned as an option . The race would suit him down to the ground and Youmzain can chase him home !

The horse is ground dependent and I would literally make hay whilst the sun shines ! What is the point of putting him away after the Irish Derby for an autumn campaign if it is soggy he won't run .
 
Ardross said:
I think it is very depressing that the King George was not mentioned as an option . The race would suit him down to the ground and Youmzain can chase him home !

The horse is ground dependent and I would literally make hay whilst the sun shines ! What is the point of putting him away after the Irish Derby for an autumn campaign if it is soggy he won't run .
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The King George has lost all its luster..
 
Trying to get an early handle on the form, I had AOA and Debussy on 109 beforehand and you'd have to say everything behind those two has under-performed.

With those two on 109, it puts the winner on 122, which would back up the anti-climactic feeling I had watching the race unfold. It's possible both AOA and Debussy have improved from their trials, although the former's OR was 109 anyway and the latter's just 103.

I reckon I'll have to stick with the low ratings for the time being. Could it be we've all been getting carried away and that what we thought was a top crop might just be a load of dross?
 
Galileo said:
Time of the Derby - 2.36.74
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Desert Orchid said:
Trying to get an early handle on the form, I had AOA and Debussy on 109 beforehand and you'd have to say everything behind those two has under-performed.

With those two on 109, it puts the winner on 122, which would back up the anti-climactic feeling I had watching the race unfold. It's possible both AOA and Debussy have improved from their trials, although the former's OR was 109 anyway and the latter's just 103.

I reckon I'll have to stick with the low ratings for the time being. Could it be we've all been getting carried away and that what we thought was a top crop might just be a load of dross?
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I wouldnt (couldnt) rate the Derby too highly on figures, but Sea The Stars looks a 130 plus horse over 10 furlongs to me and one or two in behind can excel as the season goes on for a proper test over 12 furlongs.

So the race itself cannot be rated too highly (the way the race was run lead to this) but that does not take away from the talent of the winner and those behind him. None of the first 4-5 home have raced in their ideal conditions yet.
 
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I'll probably end up giving the race the benefit of the doubt and rate it through sTS and F&G running to their pre-race figures of 125 and 123 respectively (or thereabouts). This would allow minor improvement from AOA and Debussy.

I'd also like to know how Debussy compares to Nehaam and if we'll see the latter at Royal Ascot or the Curragh.
 
I hope he goes for the eclipse...becauase i want to see this very special horse...

Nashwan has rightly been mentioned a few times because of the record but hes reminisent of that great horse in many other ways too. Slightly imperious isnt he?

Wonderful race today.



On the pace issue, making it a stamina test would have adversely affected RVW's chances of course. Was he really the one they believed had the best chance?
 
Quite ridiculous tactics from Ballydoyle. Effectively they made it a 10f race which would only have suited Rip Van Winkle who in all probability was never going to improve past Sea The Stars. There was never any chance that Fame And Glory would outpace a Guineas winner and in the circumstances he ran well to be second. Despite getting a relatively easy lead I suspect as a guaranteed stayer the slow pace also cost Golden Sword a place. The plan was so bad you could almost be forgiven for thinking it was thought up by John Oxx.
 
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