The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Rock Of Gibraltar won five Group 1's on the trot (all over a mile) between the Guineas in early May and the Moulin in early September; he should have made it six in the Breeders Cup Mile at Arlington.
 
I think the Rock was a 130+ horse who didn't have to be at his best everytime he ran to win those races. The 12f division is more competitive.
 
aye

I can remember that arlington race...sat way too far back off an easy pace..not MK's best moment..compare that to Saturday...where he was superb

it shows whats possible though Euronymous...he must have been one lucky horse to meet weak oppo so many times..Hawk Wing was no mug in the guineas for a start
 
Hamm said:
The worry is that on ground slightly on the soft side of good, Oxx will run him what with it being his 'home' Derby.
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In the post-Derby press conference Oxx was at pains to point out that Sea The Stars next race would be ground dependent; he joked that as it has rained in Ireland for the last two and a half years he suspected the ground would be wrong for him so the Eclipse was an obvious alternative. Both Oxx and Kinane were also at pains to point out that they were of the opinion that the horse's optimum distance is 10f.
 
Peeping Fawn, Dylan Thomas, Soldier Of Fortune, Alamshar - none of these won at Epsom, and hence had yet to win a Derby (Oaks) and hence has something to prove at the distance.
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You are missing my point. If Sea The Stars turned up at The Curragh and a Derby also ran put up a performance of merit similar to any of the above, then there would certainly be huge merit to his possible success. When Dylan Thomas crushed his Irish Derby field, this forum was all a buzz of who would win in the rematch between Sir Percy and DT....we never saw it. So of course there is still plenty for him to achieve in winning an Irish Derby well.

Loses, and well, it was the pace at Epsom that enabled him to do it.
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And don't we want that discounted....if he loses to one of the O'Brien horses in a strongly run Irish Derby on good ground or better does that not point to the question marks over how the slowly run race at Epsom could not be used as a reliable indicator?

Just because he won the Derby does not mean 1m4 is his distance
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Then don't we want cast iron proof that he does get the trip and is just as effective over? Is that not what we were all getting excited about on Saturday - his versatility....or was it simply a case of he got away with it lets not risk going back there again?

If Fame And Glory destroys Masterofthehorse by 6-7 lengths in the absence of Sea The Stars then I will be gutted that they could possibly never meet again with the prospect of soft ground ruling out an Arc clash in the Autumn.
 
What question marks over the slowly run race showing he didn't stay? Only the Ballydoyle Fan Club are clutching at such straws.
 
Shadow Leader said:
he joked that as it has rained in Ireland for the last two and a half years he suspected the ground would be wrong for him so the Eclipse was an obvious alternative.
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Interesting. When I read two and a half weeks I thought what planet is Oxx living on? Yet another misquote?
 
reviewing the topspeeds of the Derbies since 98, the lowest one is a 115,
Sea The Stars 100.


I have the feeling he can be beaten by the 2nd and 3rd in a strongerly run race.


About the targets
I imagine he will run in the Niel and Arc if the ground is ok, and the BC Turf could be his final race.
 
the overall times mean nothing though Suny given that it was impossible to run a big speed figure off the pedestrian pace

his sectionals put him in better than an average Derby winner..without him breaking sweat

If you want to see what a non stayer looks like when he meets a pace that should help him stay..look at RVW...he came through using his speed..but he flattened out in a race that was run to suit his strengths...just because it was steady early pace it doesn't mean a 10f horse can win it...STS has easily proved he has stamina because if it was all speed he would have flattened out too...he was comfortably holding the field at the end using stamina not speed.

I think anyone gambling on STS not staying a properly run 12f are clutching at straws..he had loads left

I cannot get over how easily he won..have you seen the other jockeys compared to Kinane in the last 2 furlongs?...the horse looks different gravy to the rest.

I still think F&G is a Leger horse...even though AOB will avoid that like the plague i would think:lol:
 
STS is speedier tha Ballydoyles, the fact he was cruising doesnt mean he can be better than the other is a more stamina test in coming weeks.

I think STS is top class but the other can be also very good and interesting ones when the conditions suits them better.
 
STS doesn't look a speed horse though imo..he didn't win the 2000 with a burst of speed....he looked a galloper...and he did at Epsom

I'm sure there are some good horses behind but I think I must have watched a different race at Epsom...because that wasn't speed at the end that won him it..he was starting to go away a little last off.

As I said..RVW is probably a 10f horse and he was coming at them fast in the Derby..but then it went to nothing in a few strides...a non stayer...if RVW is a 10f horse then STS has to have more stamina than a 10f horse as he buried RVW in a part of the race where you would expect he would have struggled..if he too is doubtful re stamina....
 
Said straighht after the guineas that STS was a middle distance horse with the class to win a guineas. As you say EC, his whole style of running (and the fact that he was rousted along quite early) suggested that

Thats why he was such a great bet

As has been said over and over, so very reminisent of Nashwan
 
Galileo said:
You are missing my point. If Sea The Stars turned up at The Curragh and a Derby also ran put up a performance of merit similar to any of the above, then there would certainly be huge merit to his possible success. When Dylan Thomas crushed his Irish Derby field, this forum was all a buzz of who would win in the rematch between Sir Percy and DT....we never saw it. So of course there is still plenty for him to achieve in winning an Irish Derby well.



And don't we want that discounted....if he loses to one of the O'Brien horses in a strongly run Irish Derby on good ground or better does that not point to the question marks over how the slowly run race at Epsom could not be used as a reliable indicator?



Then don't we want cast iron proof that he does get the trip and is just as effective over? Is that not what we were all getting excited about on Saturday - his versatility....or was it simply a case of he got away with it lets not risk going back there again?

If Fame And Glory destroys Masterofthehorse by 6-7 lengths in the absence of Sea The Stars then I will be gutted that they could possibly never meet again with the prospect of soft ground ruling out an Arc clash in the Autumn.
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I am not missing your point. Your point is you would like the Ballydoyle horses to have another go at him, with a suitable pace for them this time.

Dylan Thomas did not win the Derby, and needed the Irish Derby to prove his merit at 1m4. If a horse (FAG, for example) wins the Irish Derby well, it changes nothing. Despite the debate, there was such a clear show of superiority ... Sea the Stars was cantering while the O'Brien quartet were going hell for leather - it couldn't be more clearcut who is the better horse. This was not the case with Sir Percy and Dylan Thomas, though time clearly showed who was the better horse.

The O'Brien horses had their chance, and better opportunities to enhance the 'CV' of Sea the stars are elsewhere, again imho.

If FAG beats Masterofthehorse by 10 lengths, it means nothing. They weren't good enough on the day, and if there is to be this rematch philosophy, flat racing would go nowhere. There have been numerous fantastic rematches (Giants Causeway and Kalanisi, for example) that made sense as these were the next targets for each horse (not a lot of room for manoeuvre on their respective choices of races)) but to suggest one when is necessary when a horse has so outclassed his rivals is strange.

I think most would agree that Sea the Stars optimum trip would probably be 1m2. Of course there could be a part of his make-up which could be vulnerable if Ballydoyle attempted a version of Grundy & Bustino, and there is every reason for Ballydoyle to want STS to turn up. He has not run over 1m2 yet, has proved himself over 1m4 and the best thing for Sea the Stars would be to attempt to win a third Group 1 over a new distance, and against his elders.

If Sea the Stars wasn't trained by Oxx, he would definitely be going for the Eclipse.
 
If Sea the Stars wasn't trained by Oxx, he would definitely be going for the Eclipse.
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I was with you up to this point. Are you seriously suggesting that no other trainer would run him in the Irish Derby next? :blink:
 
I genuinely don't think so; Oxx is leaning towards a race against the same horses on a less suitable distance rather than a new distance, likely to be more suitable against older horses, as it's his home Derby. The going would also more likely to suit in the Eclipse. I should have made it clear my reasoning was Oxx is an Irish trainer.
 
So you actually mean that if Sea The Stars wasn't trained by an Irish trainer, he would be going for the Eclipse?
 
Yes. I think there is partly an obligation as a Curragh trainer (Oxx mentioned this himself).

My reasoning (for the nth time!)
- Can only beat same horses again; nothing to gain only greater margin of victory
- More suitable trip
- More likely to be more suitable ground
- Chance to prove himself against older horses, which would allow for the possibility of a higher rating

Before this is taken the wrong way, I'm Irish.
 
Hamm said:
I am not missing your point. Your point is you would like the Ballydoyle horses to have another go at him, with a suitable pace for them this time.

Dylan Thomas did not win the Derby, and needed the Irish Derby to prove his merit at 1m4. If a horse (FAG, for example) wins the Irish Derby well, it changes nothing. Despite the debate, there was such a clear show of superiority ... Sea the Stars was cantering while the O'Brien quartet were going hell for leather - it couldn't be more clearcut who is the better horse. This was not the case with Sir Percy and Dylan Thomas, though time clearly showed who was the better horse.

The O'Brien horses had their chance, and better opportunities to enhance the 'CV' of Sea the stars are elsewhere, again imho.

If FAG beats Masterofthehorse by 10 lengths, it means nothing. They weren't good enough on the day, and if there is to be this rematch philosophy, flat racing would go nowhere. There have been numerous fantastic rematches (Giants Causeway and Kalanisi, for example) that made sense as these were the next targets for each horse (not a lot of room for manoeuvre on their respective choices of races)) but to suggest one when is necessary when a horse has so outclassed his rivals is strange.

I think most would agree that Sea the Stars optimum trip would probably be 1m2. Of course there could be a part of his make-up which could be vulnerable if Ballydoyle attempted a version of Grundy & Bustino, and there is every reason for Ballydoyle to want STS to turn up. He has not run over 1m2 yet, has proved himself over 1m4 and the best thing for Sea the Stars would be to attempt to win a third Group 1 over a new distance, and against his elders.

If Sea the Stars wasn't trained by Oxx, he would definitely be going for the Eclipse.
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You seem more happy to simply class him the winner of the Epsom Derby rather than the best 3 year old over 1m4f. You say "a suitable pace"....I say a genuine Group 1/Derby pace which was far from what we had last Saturday.

Of course if Fame And Glory beat Masterofthehorse by 10 lengths it means something....firstly he will be rated above STS. It will also suggest there are serious issues with the form of the Epsom Derby given the nature in which the race was run i.e. not a true test. Of course STS could come out and win the race by 10 lengths and that would prove lots too.

Like I said, if Fame And Glory (or any of the other horses) win in the absence of STS by a considerable distance it would be a crying shame that STS did not turn up in a proper test over the trip.

James Willoughby's sectional analysis shows what an absolute farce the first five furlongs were in the Derby. You yourself said the following before about the Irish Classics:

Irish classics generally are not run at the same pace or intensity as those in England.
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yet the same fault can just be forgotten about with Epsom? If this was at Longchamp or The Curragh people would be pointing out the blatent weakness in the form but for some reason seeing as it is Epsom no one dares question the value of the form.

Was Sea The Stars the best horse on the day? Absolutely yes. Was he a deserving winner? Absolutely yes. But does he had and the race at Epsom have question marks about it given how the race was run (visually and on the clock) and how there was such a bunch finish behind....absolutely yes.
 
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