The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Hamm said:
Anyone think 12/1 Fame & Glory for the Arc is worth an interest? If it came up even good to soft, it's hard to see anything but Conduit challenging him, plus he'd have (presumably) Murtagh on board this time.
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12s seems a price worth taking to me.
 
Thanks for that Gareth, prizemoney is way more in the Irish Derby as well.

Gareth Flynn said:
RPRs since 1989:

Code: 
[B]Year    Eclipse    IrishD    Best[/B]
1989    134    128    Eclipse
1990    123    127    Irish Derby
1991    125    133    Irish Derby
1992    124    134    Irish Derby
1993    121    127    Irish Derby
1994    119    129    Irish Derby
1995    120    121    Irish Derby
1996    127    126    Eclipse
1997    128    123    Eclipse
1998    126    119    Eclipse
1999    123    133    Irish Derby
2000    130    132    Irish Derby
2001    121    129    Irish Derby
2002    126    124    Eclipse
2003    126    127    Irish Derby
2004    126    126    Tie
2005    124    126    Irish Derby
2006    122    124    Irish Derby
2007    124    127    Irish Derby
2008    123    122    Eclipse
 
Average    125    127    Irish Derby
Median    124    127    Irish Derby
Mode    126    127    Irish Derby
Maximum    134    134    Tie
Minimum    119    119    Tie
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The Arc's normally won by an unexposed French 3yo - would say that Aizavoski is the one at the moment given his run the other day. Not sure 16/1 is value given what he's done thus far but if he wins on Saturday and can take out the big one on Bastille Day then you'll be looking at 6's at most.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon it's debatable if the Irish Derby has more status than the Eclipse although whether it's actually worth arguing over is debatable itself.

The Eclipse is the first all-aged G1 which you could argue puts it alongside the King George. The Irish Derby, in recent years, has produced some superior performances to the Derby.
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I think the timeframe alone would rule out a tilt at The Irish Derby, just over the 3 weeks to recover for STS. However, I will be at the Curragh and woulnd't have any complaints if Oxx were to run the champ on his home track.:cool::cool: Love to see him in the flesh..a rare beauty he is.
 
I think we can discount any of the 3yo in the Jockey Club. Meehan should have sent Crowded House over.

And talking of CH, his close-up comments on saturday make interesting reading. Unfortunately the Beeb were up to their focus on the leader only technique again.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Agree with that apart from the unexposed part! Most, if not all, will have won a Group 1, and usually a Derby or Oaks.
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Maybe not unexposed but I'd say it's rare for one of the home team to have run outside of France - expect the Arc winner's schedule to look something like GPD Paris/Niel/Arc and then maybe a 2010 campaign starting as always at home.
 
After reading Willoughby's article and watching the race again (thanks for that link Gareth) I really do think Fame And Glory is capable of getting closer at The Curragh. Look at the distance between Fame And Glory and Sea The Star's when the eventual winner makes his move and look at the distance between them at the line...its virtually the same. The only difference between them on Saturday was STS's turn of foot off a slow pace. Perhaps he will be capable of doing the same again in a fast run (which it surely will be) Irish Derby but I still have doubts.

This is some start to the flat season....
 
If the ground is faster than it was at Epsom, then Sea the Stars would beat FAG by half the track. FAG needs slow ground to slow Sea the Stars down.
 
Sea The Stars is a big strong and heavy horse. I would not think he would want the ground particularly firm either.
 
I wouldnt spend more than a second considering FAG's chance against STS unless conditions were extreme...and then it wouldnt happen

Can almost look at these things too closely looking for angles sometimes. no reason not to stick to original impression that one horse is clearly superior to the other

But (apart from wanting to see him) do wish he would go to the eclipse tather than taking on the same beasts once again. The sooner we can see how he compares with the older horses (very favourably im sure) over what could be his perfect distance...the better. Slight concern at Sandown would be his seemingly slight idling in front. Not ideal there at all.....
 
By RACING POST STAFF7.07PM 8 JUN 2009
SEAMIE HEFFERNAN on Monday admitted he would ride Fame And Glory differently if he had the chance to take on Saturday's brilliant Investec Derby winner Sea The Stars again in the future.
Fame And Glory was heavily backed on course into 9-4 favourite, but Heffernan could only get within a length and three-quarters of Sea The Stars, who became the first colt since Nashwan in 1989 to complete the Guineas-Derby double.
However, the pace in the race was not a searching one which, according to Heffernan, seemed to suit the Mick Kinane-ridden winner rather than the runner-up.
Heffernan said: "He ran well - a good one beat me. I'd like to congratulate John Oxx and Michael Kinane - it was a fantastic achievement - but I'd like to have another go at them - I felt that he beat me on his terms."
Like Seas The Stars, Fame And Glory was havinghis fifth start at Epsom, and Heffernan continued: "I believe my horse will improve with time and racing - but that's my opinion."
Heffernan is hoping he gets another tilt at the dual Classic winner at the Curragh on June 28.
"[The form] could be reversed [in the Irish Derby]," he continued. "Maybe Sea The Stars is a super horse and he won't be beaten but I'd do things a little bit differently if I had the chance again."
 
Been seemingly taken for granted that Ballydoyle made a hash of the tactics, but is there not a chance that the two pacesetters were simply ignored (despite having both won their trials)?

Just an idea.
 
trackside528 said:
Been seemingly taken for granted that Ballydoyle made a hash of the tactics, but is there not a chance that the two pacesetters were simply ignored (despite having both won their trials)?

Just an idea.
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Agreed, that is why Heffernan should have sat third...just off them but enough to prevent them from being ignored. Either way even if they were not ignored they were still going to slow for 4-5 furlongs.
 
Ballydoyle got it in the neck for supposedly sacrificing decent horses as pacemakers in order to help their chosen one win (Scorpion in Dylan Thomas' King George).

Ballydoyle got it in the neck for supposedly using pacemakers to screw with the pace of a race to disadvantage another runner (Authorized in the Eclipse).

Now, Ballydoyle are getting it in the neck for not sacrificing Golden Sword's chance in favour of other, more fancied runners, and not screwing with the pace in order to disadvantage Sea The Stars.
 
What surprises me is Hefferman saying this
he rode to the instructions.


Sea The Stars looks a very good horse but Fame And Glory should have been ridden in other way, and could have had the chance of winning with much more pace and ridden more prominently
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Ballydoyle got it in the neck for supposedly sacrificing decent horses as pacemakers in order to help their chosen one win (Scorpion in Dylan Thomas' King George).

Ballydoyle got it in the neck for supposedly using pacemakers to screw with the pace of a race to disadvantage another runner (Authorized in the Eclipse).

Now, Ballydoyle are getting it in the neck for not sacrificing Golden Sword's chance in favour of other, more fancied runners, and not screwing with the pace in order to disadvantage Sea The Stars.
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They are the Man Utd of racing. Anyone but's are everywhere.
 
Heffernan has regrets, from the RP :


Heffernan: Sea The Stars beat me on his terms

BY RACING POST STAFF7.07PM 8 JUN 2009

SEAMIE HEFFERNAN on Monday admitted he would ride Fame And Glory differently if he had the chance to take on Saturday's brilliant Investec Derby winner Sea The Stars again in the future.

Fame And Glory was heavily backed on course into 9-4 favourite, but Heffernan could only get within a length and three-quarters of Sea The Stars, who became the first colt since Nashwan in 1989 to complete the Guineas-Derby double.


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»Derby result and analysis
However, the pace in the race was not a searching one which, according to Heffernan, seemed to suit the Mick Kinane-ridden winner rather than the runner-up.
Heffernan said: "He ran well - a good one beat me. I'd like to congratulate John Oxx and Michael Kinane - it was a fantastic achievement - but I'd like to have another go at them - I felt that he beat me on his terms."

Like Seas The Stars, Fame And Glory was having his fifth start at Epsom, and Heffernan continued: "I believe my horse will improve with time and racing - but that's my opinion."

Heffernan is hoping he gets another tilt at the dual Classic winner at the Curragh on June 28.

"[The form] could be reversed [in the Irish Derby]," he continued. "Maybe Sea The Stars is a super horse and he won't be beaten but I'd do things a little bit differently if I had the chance again."
 
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