The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Hamm said:
Yes. I think there is partly an obligation as a Curragh trainer (Oxx mentioned this himself).

My reasoning (for the nth time!)
- Can only beat same horses again; nothing to gain only greater margin of victory
- More suitable trip
- More likely to be more suitable ground
- Chance to prove himself against older horses, which would allow for the possibility of a higher rating

Before this is taken the wrong way, I'm Irish.
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Whilst I agree in general with the point that the potential maximum upside is less for Sea The Stars in the Irish Derby, and that Irish trainers feel a responsibility to support the race with their best horses, there's a couple of points you're missing:

- Sea The Stars has multiple opportunities to run over 10f against older horses later this season. But he will never, ever be able to run in the Irish Derby again.

- You seem oblivious to just how much prestige is attached to the Irish Derby. No Irish trainer will lightly turn down the opportunity of a shot at it.
 
I'd be very doubtful STS will race as a 4 year old (hope I'm wrong - how wealthy are the Tsui's?). Therefore, the here and now is most important and should be maximised, and that's why i think what i posted.

Perhaps i do underestimate the Irish Derby, but my points are more about suitability (ground, trip) and prestige (3rd G1 at new trip, older horses) rather than the respective races.
 
Its interesting that pace has been the most discussed apect of the Derby. I don't ever remember pace being mentioned so much before..I have been pretty surprised tbh.

on saying that..Saturdays race has the slowest early fractions I've come across Derby wise...coincidentally..Ask's race was run at near on the same early pace after ground speed has been removed from the equation.

My attitude towards a race like Saturdays is that if STS has appeared on the scene like RVW and won..I too would tend to argue that he is probably a speed horse..but his style of victory as said doesn't say that.

The problem is now that we may not see the horse over 12f again..because when his record is looked back on in the future..he has a 12f Group 1 already in that CV...I doubt in 6 months time that how fast the race was run will be mentioned.

what a dilemma for Oxx..for stud purposes his next race would be to win a G! over 10f..how impressive is that compared to winning another 12f G1

horses like this no longer have natural race targets..they have CV race targets that sell them for the future

that was best demonstrated with Motivator...who was so clearly a horse that could have eaten a few 12f races but was put back to 10f for CV purposes..heartbreaking imo in certain regards..especially for us viewing.
 
As was Galileo.

Attempted CV boosts are not always the wisest option. It has to be said also that owners and trainers look at things differently from those who merely comment upon their actions. Often they will go where they see the most likely victory rather than the win that will prove most. Those people, even potential stallion owners, do not necessarily care what the win proves as they do not have to satisfy those who want to see it beat this horse or that horse, in a fast run race , a slow run race, in europe, against older horses, against the top filly, against the nips, on an artificial surface or even , lord strike-me-down, over a mile and six.

Where next can we go that will most likely give us the easiest win ?

The answer to that question is often the one that connections most want to find.

So what would be the answer?
 
Galileo won the Irish Derby and King George in imperious fashion before being cut back to 10f, and Motivator did at least eventually get a shot at the Arc, where he ran respectably well in a very good renewal.
 
Galileo was a 134/5 animal who could run two or three pounds below his best over 10f and pick up a nice prize. Motivator didn't have that luxury and Authorized was a tad lucky for me. I think the point is mute though with Sea the Stars as he's a Guineas winner.
 
EC1 said:
As I said..RVW is probably a 10f horse and he was coming at them fast in the Derby..but then it went to nothing in a few strides...a non stayer...if RVW is a 10f horse then STS has to have more stamina than a 10f horse as he buried RVW in a part of the race where you would expect he would have struggled..if he too is doubtful re stamina....
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Not how I read it, EC1. Rip Van Winkle stayed on powerfully up the hill (without looking entirely comfortable on the track) having looked short of pace at a crucial stage in the race, not unlike the Guineas.

He certainly didn't prove conclusively he gets the trip, though equally to say he ran like a "non-stayer" would surely be wide of the mark as well. He remains a colt of huge potential IMO, despite not yet having lived up to home expectations.
 
it was just the way he stopped..looked like the tank emptied really quickly..he went from contender to zilch ...that suggests empty tank to me rather than the track

i'll have to have another look
 
The Derby's fascination is largely because it's the first middle distance test for the classic generation. It is a great race but there is no guarantee that the winner will be the best horse of its year over the trip.

Derby winners who need to show that they are not merely stayers are often sent to the Eclipse because most years it's the least competitive Group 1 available to them at 10f.

STS has already won a Guineas and therefore doesn't need to take that option. Winning the Irish Derby would prove his stamina and superiority over the rest of his age group beyond doubt. It would also be less likely to bottom him than taking on older horses at this stage of his career.
 
Grey said:
The Derby's fascination is largely because it's the first middle distance test for the classic generation. It is a great race but there is no guarantee that the winner will be the best horse of its year over the trip.
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I used to think that but the majority seem to end up being the best of at least their own generation.
 
the majority seem to end up being the best of at least their own generation
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I'd agree with that. More than half (maybe 60%?) of Derby winners end up being the best of their own generation over the trip. But in each case after winning the Derby had they had to go on and prove it elsewhere.
 
Dont agree at all Grey

The Champions Stakes at Newmarket is surely a weaker grp 1 than the eclipse. In fact recent runnings of the eclipse have been pretty strong

As has been said, he should certainly go for the race, simply because its a new challenge whereas the irish derby will probably simply confim what we already know

Another consideration should be the unfortunate possibility of injury at any stage. Surely best to beat the older horses as soon as practicable
 
clivex said:
Dont agree at all Grey

The Champions Stakes at Newmarket is surely a weaker grp 1 than the eclipse. In fact recent runnings of the eclipse have been pretty strong

As has been said, he should certainly go for the race, simply because its a new challenge whereas the irish derby will probably simply confim what we already know

Another consideration should be the unfortunate possibility of injury at any stage. Surely best to beat the older horses as soon as practicable
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Bar Tartan Bearer....what superstar old horses is Sea The Stars likely to face in the Eclipse?
 
In fairness, he can only beat what's put in front of him; it's not really the horse's fault if there isn't a vintage crop of opposition about. However if he were to run in the Eclipse and win it would go down on record as having beaten the older horses regardless of how good they are perceived to be.
 
Shadow Leader said:
However if he were to run in the Eclipse and win it would go down on record as having beaten the older horses regardless of how good they are perceived to be.
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Granted thats true but who remember's Hawk Wing's victory in the Eclipse against "older horses"? Not me...
 
It is likely that the horses best distance is 10f. He'll probably only have 3 or 4 more runs at most in his career, surely the best policy is to get one on the board at his best distance as soon as possible, especially when it is the financially sexy trip of 10f.

It would be a shame to see him end his career, like El Gran Senor, without ever running at his best trip.
 
Exactly Melendez

I wonder if there are going to be any "superstars" in the Irish derby then

Shadow leader said it. Simple fact of winning an all aged grp 1 10f race, which is prestigious in its own right and has a record of top class winners, has to be a further string to the bow
 
clivex said:
Exactly Melendez

I wonder if there are going to be any "superstars" in the Irish derby then

Shadow leader said it. Simple fact of winning an all aged grp 1 10f race, which is prestigious in its own right and has a record of top class winners, has to be a further string to the bow
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Its all academic anyway, he'll turn up at The Curragh if the ground is good or better, while he will head to Sandown if the rains come to Ireland.

Find it interesting that so many are happy to just on the "speed, mile, 10 furlong" bandwagon for this horse...when so many bleat on about protecting the 12 furlong and staying type horses in most other instances. The concern to improve his stallion CV is commendable on this forum's part!
 
No one is jumping on a bandwagon; it's quite clear what his best trip will likely be, and what is most beneficial for the horse, career-wise.

The main worry for me with the Irish Derby is O'Brien will definitely go back to using team tactics, which could result in a Grundy/Bustino type race.
 
Hamm said:
No one is jumping on a bandwagon; it's quite clear what his best trip will likely be, and what is most beneficial for the horse, career-wise.

The main worry for me with the Irish Derby is O'Brien will definitely go back to using team tactics, which could result in a Grundy/Bustino type race.
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What - strongly run 12 furlong race?

The very fact you point to 10 furlongs probably being his best trip points to him definitely having plenty of questions to answer over 12 furlongs.
 
The main worry for me with the Irish Derby is O'Brien will definitely go back to using team tactics
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I'm confused. Is pacemaking team tactics or not?

which could result in a Grundy/Bustino type race.
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A legendary battle still fondly remembered 30 years later. Oh no! :)
 
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