Gamla Stan
At the Start
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Agreed Hamm, he should in no way be shorter than Gan Amhras. Personally, on what he's actually achieved and with the question marks over his stamina, he should be about 12/1.
The Derby & Irish Derby 2009
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
I would not argue to much about that price of 12/1...I agree he probably is too short but for me its the trip more than anything that would be a worry.
Given how the yard's horses are improving and the promise he has shown I think he is a top class prospect. The idea that his Guineas run was not most encouraging given his problems and the trend of the yards horses is the complete other extreme of the hype.
Given how the yard's horses are improving and the promise he has shown I think he is a top class prospect. The idea that his Guineas run was not most encouraging given his problems and the trend of the yards horses is the complete other extreme of the hype.
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Gamla Stan
At the Start
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I think that's a fair call, I'd rather be on Gan Amhras (who I'm coming round to more and more) or even one of the other Ballydoyle colts than him though. He just seems to have the exact same profile as Horatio Nelson and whilst he sadly never got the chance to prove himself, he was hyped up in exactly the same way. Rip's Guineas run was encouraging but not enough for him to be ahead of the other Ballydoyle colts who have ran excellent trials.
LBM
At the Start
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Not really. Some of the mares with live 08 foals by him include : Brigid (Listen), Jude (Yesterday), LÁncresse, Love for Ever (Gypsy King), Mariahs Storm (Giant´s Causeway), Pescia (Stately Home), Red Bloom, Ryskaverse, Shastye, Smart n´Noble, Solo de Lune (Moonstone), etc...
It is also worth noticing that 90% of all Epsom Derby entries this year (at this stage) have got Sadler´s Well´s blood in their pedigree, with only Sea the Stars and Crowded House falling out that category.
I wonder was Lydia reading this forum ...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/may/26/lydia-hislop-epsom-derby
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/may/26/lydia-hislop-epsom-derby
That's not at all how I read it. That Rip is the apple of Murtagh's eye shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. He and Ballydoyle in general have made this obvious all season. Indeed I have been at pains to stress how highly regarded Rip is at Ballydoyle and what a soft spot Murtagh has for him.
However the statement that this "soft spot" aside Murtagh will let his head rule his heart says in a straightforward way to me that he will want to be with Fame... Like I say though I'm unconcerned for Fame if he does choose Rip and will be backing Fame again on any easing in his price.
You also "read" that the forecast would yield better than heavy ground last week despite the obvious reality reports. Reading something without seeing the facial reactions or tone of his voice can be misleading.
You went for Mastercraftsman in the Guineas despite how highly you know they regard RIP?
I prefer Fame And Glory to RIP (for the Derby) but I think Murtagh will ride RIP now particularly as F&G is probably a more straight forward ride in the Derby leaving Murtagh to give RIP every chance of getting the trip.
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EC1
On a break
You would think if AOB had an exceptional chance in the Derby that the stable jock would not be umming and arring over which one to ride.
I would have thought on what we have seen that Fame & Glory would have been his obvious ride.
I've been a RVW supporter for this race but I am questioning if they don't have a stand out horse...obviously you may not need a stand out horse but I reckon this years race is pretty hot compared to a few other years recently.
I would have thought on what we have seen that Fame & Glory would have been his obvious ride.
I've been a RVW supporter for this race but I am questioning if they don't have a stand out horse...obviously you may not need a stand out horse but I reckon this years race is pretty hot compared to a few other years recently.
What is happening with Derby market is bizarre, I can not rememeber an easier edition to pick the winner and the market is going mad,
if Fame And Glory stays healthy and the ground is between gf and heavy , he should win this by a long distance.
if Fame And Glory stays healthy and the ground is between gf and heavy , he should win this by a long distance.
Nefertiti
At the Start
Galileo wrote:
More problems with his feet???? What problems, Gal? I haven't heard anything about this. Doesn't sound good, especially added to all the other ifs and buts. Surely they wouldn't take a chance with the horse - if any doubt, save him for the Eclipse.
More problems with his feet???? What problems, Gal? I haven't heard anything about this. Doesn't sound good, especially added to all the other ifs and buts. Surely they wouldn't take a chance with the horse - if any doubt, save him for the Eclipse.
Yes, but on the signs I've interpreted I'm disagreeing with you. No need to take it personally. That's my view. He will ride one or the other no doubt, but on the balance of evidence I think that you and the market have got it wrong.
You were right that the going remained heavy the other day. You were wrong that Punchestowns wouldn't be placed in the World Hurdle (despite declining my offer for a wager that he would be), for example. We are all right and wrong about things all of the time.
If I were betting on it I'd take Murtagh to ride Fame over Rip, but this is a side issue as far as I'm concerned. I'd rather bet on the winner of the race than who rides what.
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I know. Stables like anyone else are not always right. Plus Rip suffered from an over-reach and then a stone bruise prior to the Guineas. It turned out as we thought that both would come on for the run.
I thought then and still believe that Mastercraftsman would prove better over a mile than Rip.
Rip on the other hand will likely be better at middle-distances.
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This is always assuming we can take what they say at face value. There is always a lot of kid-ology at this stage. They all talk in double speak. Even if they do think that Fame is the one (and I think they probably do) it is in their interests to hedge their bets.
That's why I prefer to stick to fundamentals with horses ahead of big races in particular and treat such comments with a large pinch of salt.
I don't think you are going mad. It looks quite straighforward to me too. All this speculation of course makes the favourite look even better value. Take advantage of it and count your blessings.
John Oxx must be loving having all the attention deflected away from his colt by the annual Ballydoyle musical saddles
I think they'll all be sitting pretty much as originally expected when the music stops.
Several of the Ballydoyle colts should outstay Sea The Stars for what it's worth.
Sunybay,
You are out of your mind with these comments 'he will canter', 'he would have won the Dante by 5 lengths' etc.
There is simply no way any horse would have won that Dante by 5 lengths nor will any horse canter through Derby in a renewal that is clearly one of the hottest in years.
The fact neither Ballydoyle or Murtagh are entirely sure which is their best says a lot.
This reminds me of the misplace certain belief that Neptune Collonges would win the Gold Cup.
You are out of your mind with these comments 'he will canter', 'he would have won the Dante by 5 lengths' etc.
There is simply no way any horse would have won that Dante by 5 lengths nor will any horse canter through Derby in a renewal that is clearly one of the hottest in years.
The fact neither Ballydoyle or Murtagh are entirely sure which is their best says a lot.
This reminds me of the misplace certain belief that Neptune Collonges would win the Gold Cup.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
They didn't think Dylan Thomas was their best animal in 2006. At 7/2 F&G is as big a price as High Chaparral was in 2002. I missed out on that, i'm not missing out again. A big bet on F&G with cover on Gan Amhras is surely the only play in the race.
hooray! Exactly so. Just mop up every bit of value on him ahead of the race... they are all talking about Rip going favourite if Murtagh chooses him. No one seems to be considering that Fame will go even shorter when Murtagh does choose him. You've made the right choice Gal.
I wouldn't for one minute disagree with anyone who says he is most likely their best colt at 1m4. And, if he reaches 4/1, he is value, especially if the ground stays on the soft side of good and Sea the stars doesn't run (or even if he does, his chances will severely be compromised by anything other than fast ground).
That is one thing; another is to say he would beat very good horses at a canter based purely on 2 beatings of a horse who doesn't looked to have trained on, and another who simply isn't very good.
It is a very open Derby and we can all be proved right at the end; however, there is no way at this point in time any horse can be said to be show anything which will means he will win a Derby in a canter. To say as such is, with respect, absolute nonsense.
That is one thing; another is to say he would beat very good horses at a canter based purely on 2 beatings of a horse who doesn't looked to have trained on, and another who simply isn't very good.
It is a very open Derby and we can all be proved right at the end; however, there is no way at this point in time any horse can be said to be show anything which will means he will win a Derby in a canter. To say as such is, with respect, absolute nonsense.
Exactly my position, although at least one of the other Ballydoyle colts (probably BBI or Rip) will be worrying GA for runner-up spot.
Only one winner for me though. I'll re-weight on the day to protect downside on the Fame stake, but I'm pretty relaxed at this point with the bulk on at 9s and 7s.