The Derby

He has fine chances of getting the trip.

Eagle Mountain (Rock Of Gibraltar/Darshaan) 2-2-11-1-2 = 18, DI 1.12, CD 0.06

He looked promising when finishing fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and looks sure to improve at middle distances. By Rock Of Gibraltar out of a Darshaan mare. He has sidestepped the Irish Guineas to take part here and has obvious chances in terms of suitability and ability.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 27 2007, 03:18 PM
....sounds like they have had alot of rain last night with more forecast.
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We had quite a bit (I live about two miles from the course) and a little more today but if the forecasters are right and there will be good weather during the week it will cetainly be good at least. The drainage through chalk under-surface of the downs is excellent.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@May 27 2007, 06:27 PM
"While he handles fast ground, he also handles an ease." Classic AP quote.. leaves absolutely no doubt whatsoever.. :D
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Just like last year, they have too many horses and too little expertise.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@May 27 2007, 07:21 PM
His ability on soft and fast ground is in the form book, what's the problem?
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The problem is Ballydoyle had the best colt in the race last year and ran him like a pacemaker.

When a stable has a lot of high quality animals i think they sometimes are guilty of not giving enough thought too each horse`s individual requirements. I believe Ballydoyle were particulary guilty of this last year because AOB was obsessed with George Washington.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@May 27 2007, 05:43 PM
He has fine chances of getting the trip.

Eagle Mountain (Rock Of Gibraltar/Darshaan) 2-2-11-1-2 = 18, DI 1.12, CD 0.06

He looked promising when finishing fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and looks sure to improve at middle distances. By Rock Of Gibraltar out of a Darshaan mare. He has sidestepped the Irish Guineas to take part here and has obvious chances in terms of suitability and ability.
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Doesn't that total of 18 suggest the figures need to be treated with caution?

Also, I see that ROG's awd is 5f. Is that because he's still a young stallion? But what happens if he goes on to be a strong sprinting influence?
 
It was more trackside's singling out of that quote that I was wondering about, but what you say is fair comment Euro - although it was Johnny Murtagh that rode him like a pacemaker (it wasn't the plan) and when it came to the Derby they only had eyes for Horatio Nelson, rather than George being a factor.
 
I'd bet against Eagle Mountain staying the Derby trip. Although there is some stamina on the dam's side it's a family mostly of 8f-10f performers. There is little evidence to date that the sire, Rock Of Gibraltar, is going to be a strong influence for stamina. At distances of nine furlongs plus he's sired one winner from twenty two runners. In fairness, that one victory was over 13f (at Wexford) and I accept that Eagle Mountain runs like a horse who will stay further but it would be dangerous to assume he'll stay the very stiff Epsom 12f let alone improve for the extra distance.
 
Although Eagle Mountain's half-sister Sulk stayed 12f well, she was by Selkirk who seems more able to impart stamina than Rock Of Gibraltar.

There is a lot of speed in the bottom line, Darshaan's stamina influence notwithstanding, and I'd guess that 10f will be as far as this fellow will care to go. It's not impossible that he'll get the trip, but I'd bet against it.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+May 27 2007, 06:29 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ May 27 2007, 06:29 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-SteveM@May 27 2007, 05:43 PM
He has fine chances of getting the trip.

Eagle Mountain (Rock Of Gibraltar/Darshaan) 2-2-11-1-2 = 18, DI 1.12, CD 0.06

He looked promising when finishing fifth in the 2,000 Guineas and looks sure to improve at middle distances. By Rock Of Gibraltar out of a Darshaan mare. He has sidestepped the Irish Guineas to take part here and has obvious chances in terms of suitability and ability.
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Doesn't that total of 18 suggest the figures need to be treated with caution?

Also, I see that ROG's awd is 5f. Is that because he's still a young stallion? But what happens if he goes on to be a strong sprinting influence? [/b][/quote]
It’s true the higher the points score the more accurate the reading is likely to be. 18 is usually considered sufficient when the points are close up in the pedigree (which is not especially the case here). While EM’s reading is not absolutely watertight, Shirley Heights (Darshaan’s sire) is the constant and holds the key to his middle-distance stamina expectations. Acapulco (who shares the same dam sire), for example, can be expected to stay even further given that his sire is Galileo.

As you say RoG’s AWD for his progeny is not significant as he is a young sire and not (yet at least) an acknowledged source of prepotency. Chances are he will not throw up much in the way of middle-distance progeny, but the Shirley Heights/Darshaan line is what should prove dominant here.

Acapulco (Galileo/Darshaan) 3-0-12-5-2 = 22, DI 0.69, CD -0.14
This is a pedigree for stamina beyond 12 furlongs, the negative centre of distribution (CD) indicates pronounced stamina capabilities. Put simply, Eagle Mountain has a better profile for the Derby although Acapulco should outstay him.
 
My highlighting of that quote was really made in jest Gareth FWIW..

As for Dylan Thomas last year, Johnny Murtagh made hash of that ride, trying to ride the horse from the front (he was no pace-maker)..

Ironic considering he was the one they put on High Chaparral a few years ago when they didn't trust Kinane..
 
Originally posted by gus@May 27 2007, 08:16 PM
I thought Murtagh rode a brilliant race last year.
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I think in light of how good the horse has proved to be since that run, and how it has been ridden in those runs, I'd say that someone close to the horse got it severely wrong before the Derby, and I'd hazard a guess that it was Johnny Murtagh.

If he wasn't riding to instructions I think he gave it a very poor ride.
 
Murtagh is a very poor judge of pace imo - he seems often to be too far back and getting boxed in, giving the horse far too much to do - or riding too far up with the pace.

Euro is imo quite right about the Ballydoyle concentration on GW early last year - and were making the same mistake with HRE earlier this year, hence them being so far as I can judge still in a bit of a muddle about what they've got.
 
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, of course.

Bold tactics won him the day on High Chaparral and nearly did the same with Dylan Thomas. He had the guts to kick on off a surprisingly steady pace for a Derby and only just got caught. Yes, he was beaten but that isn't the sole test of a ride.
 


Ironic considering he was the one they put on High Chaparral a few years ago when they didn't trust Kinane..

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i thought he was on hc becuase kinane wanted to stick to hawk wing who allthough a doubtful stayer was considered the better horse


eagle mountain may stay but wont be quick enough i think of aobs constngent archipenko/soldier of fortune will be the best
 
Euro is imo quite right about the Ballydoyle concentration on GW early last year - and were making the same mistake with HRE earlier this year, hence them being so far as I can judge still in a bit of a muddle about what they've got.
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George probably entered the Derby calculations for about 10 seconds last year. The one they concentrated on for the Derby was Horatio Nelson. That's why Fallon rode him despite also having the Dante and Derrinstown winners to choose from, and that's why the horse went off as the 11/2 second fav.
 
I don't really believe that there was anything particularly wrong with the plan to aim HRE for the Guineas to the exclusion of some others. I'm sure it's much more technical (for want of a better word) than just that.

The Classics come awfully early in the season and I'm sure, ideally, trainers would like to see them all shifted on about a month or so (let's not get into a discussion about changing the racing calendar. We know the hornet's nest we could be stirring up there!).

Saying that he was concentrating on only HRE for the Guineas said to me that most of his other 3yos needed a little more time and, as he had a strong candidate in HRE, he was willing to allow the others come to hand in their own time.

Unfortunately, HRE was shelved and O'Brien had to get a move along with some of those who he previously was allowing to come to hand in their own time. It wasn't ideal and it would likely have served these others better had they been left alone for another few weeks.

However, had Eagle Mountain or Duke Of Marmalade, amongst others, shown that they were coming to themselves early in the year, the now famous quote would never have been made.

Circumstances enforce change. Personally, I have a niggling feeling that Bolger tried for the 1000 Guineas treble with Finsceal Beo because of his disappointment with the unfortunate setback to Teofilo. I hope she gets a good long rest now before he brings her to the track again.
 
Surprising the Tregoning horse is shortening up so much considering the Lingfield Derby trial form was ripped apart at the weekend. Archipenko on the slide with some bookies with SOF being cut.
 
SOFT GROUND DERBY POSSIBLE
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By Keith Hamer, PA Sport

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Soft ground is the call at Epsom after the track was soaked with 34 millimetres of rain over the weekend.

The going on the Derby course is currently soft, good to soft in places.

"Taking into account the rain we had on Saturday night we've now totalled 34mm of rain since Saturday afternoon and about 20mm of that was in Sunday's rainfall," said clerk of the course Andrew Cooper.

"Undoubtedly after that amount of rain you would have to call the ground soft.

"It is slightly better than that in places, particularly in the climb up the hill and the top of the hill, but to all intents and purposes it is soft if we were racing here on Monday afternoon," he told At The Races.

"I don't think good to firm is a possibility (on Saturday). It would depend how much rain we see this week but any amount of dry weather and it will settle down. It wouldn't stay soft here for that long.

"Looking ahead I would be thinking there is a good chance of us being somewhere around good to soft on Saturday and a shade slower on Friday."
 
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