The Derby

Agree with a lot of what you're saying Warbler but Dick Hunter seems to be fairly good at picking winners at decent prices. Maybe he's the exception.
 
Well according to the BBC, we've got rain forecast for Sunday, and a fair amount of it too. Which means that Ireland will get it 12 hours earlier (Saturday evening?) which could alter things quite a bit come the 1K. If it does then I think Boca Dancer's in play.

Arch Swing and to a lesser extent FB, might struggle at The Curragh on G/S at 8F. FB would be a less of a concern on the ground, but I think she needs it G/F or quicker to be at her best, and might conceivably be brought back to the rest a bit.

You watch it come up soft now with Evening Time sitting in her box watching the tele :laughing:

Just realised I'm on the wrong thread, will transfer the latest daft idea
 
Originally posted by TommyL@May 23 2007, 10:14 PM
Agree with a lot of what you're saying Warbler but Dick Hunter seems to be fairly good at picking winners at decent prices. Maybe he's the exception.
Click to expand...
I've grown more and more convinced of it Tommy, although it could just be me, and the methods I use etc. If I try and accumulate short priced winners {5/2 or less} I pretty well break even or run at a small loss. I find that all I'm doing is using the winners to supplement the losers. You need to be going at fair strike rate just to break even. My profits tend to come from the 16/1+ winners when I do a final reconciliation, and I've thus confined myself to betting less frequently, but for bigger stakes on bigger prices, as I seem to be able to operate at about 12% in this territory, though you do obviously encounter some nasty losing streaks.

The Weekender are shocking for their embarrassing self-glorification of winning tips at odds I wouldn't even consider. Frankly I'd be too embarrassed to admit to calling them a tip. Winstanley and Cullinan are by far and away the worst offenders. Winstanley's block advert incidentally offers "3-4 quality bets per month". Now this is fine if he's hitting double figures, but to admit that 8/1 is his biggest winner of the year shrug:: Who's going to pay the subscription to be told that Authorized will win the Dante? (or whatever obvious odds on shot he's alighted on) God even Thommo could pick those. I notice he talks about a strike rate of 65%, which wouldn't be born out by his weekly column I'd suggest (but he might sand bag the odd one, so fair enough if that's the case). My suspicion is that he might be counting 4/1 e/w bets though into strike rates?
 
Segal thinks it is better for the sport if a good guy - PCH - wins the Derby than just another Ballydoyle animal. Shoddy.
Click to expand...

The best thing for the sport is that the best horse in the race wins and goes on to win a few more big races afterwards.

I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to name the last trainer to get a subsequent win out of his Derby winner.
 
I`m gonna guess AOB with High Chaparral.

I`m not as hot for him as Segal, but i do like Chapple-Hyam and he is a bit more honest than a lot of trainers with the press. He would have got another win out of Motivator if he`d handled him.
 
Mordins take on Derby fav

AUTHORIZED IS SMART, BUT CAN HE ACT ON FIRM GOING?

AUTHORIZED (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've given the winner of a Derby Trial this year when taking the Dante. And he did so despite the slow early pace that has sadly become the norm in such races.

The way that Authorized cruised throughout the race and sprinted clear so rapidly when shaken up was impressive. Even more impressive were his sectional times that I got by using a stopwatch on the video. After the early crawl, the last five furlongs were run in 59.4 seconds. That's exactly the same time that the older fillies and mares ran the last five furlongs in the preceding Group 3 off an early gallop that was more than two seconds slower. The previous day the Oaks favourite Passage of Time had run the last five furlongs in one minute flat despite racing on going that was 2.2 seconds faster by my estimates and coming off a much slower early pace. These numbers suggest Authorized would have beaten Passage Of Time by twelve lengths. In the faster run Listed mile handicap they covered the last five furlongs in 1m 0.9 seconds. All this makes his run look seriously good.

Authorized is the only likely Derby runner to have earned the key form book comment 'quickened' which eleven of the last 12 UK-trained Derby winners have before taking the big race (the ability to quicken is now massively important in today's slower run big races according to my research). He certainly earned that comment here.

However, although Authorized clearly deserves to be Derby favourite, I have to say that he only ran a Group 2 time here (while obviously conceding he might well have been able to go much faster). In addition I should add that the ground was on the slow side of good. So we still don't know whether he can produce his best on the kind of firm surface which normally prevails at Epsom.

Authorized certainly doesn't show a great deal of knee action. His stride was noticeably bigger than that of his rivals though, so he does hit the ground pretty hard. And you also have to wonder how such a long-striding horse will handle the twists and turns of Epsom. In other words there is some hope for those of us who hate the idea of taking short odds in the Derby.
 
Mordin should realise that the slower the early pace the more likely it is that a horse will run faster towards the end.

The bottom line is that he only credits Authorized with a G2 time. My figures say his time was even slower but the form lines work out a shade faster and he deserves to be near the head of the market. However, there's no way he deserves to be his current price.

Also he says it's the biggest rating he's given to the winner of a Derby trial this year. Big wowee. But how does he define a Derby trial. Does the 2000 Guineas count?

Authorized beat nothing at York in no better than G3 time and probably closer to Listed. He didn't even match his best 2yo form there so any talk of likely improvement is entirely in order but it doesn't make him the most likely winner next week.
 
Jamie, I'll check back through my records but my gut instinct is that the RPR figures you quote for past winners are totally inaccurate.

May I also, respectfully, suggest that you ask someone with a bit of knowledge of English grammar to proof-read your stuff prior to 'publishing'? The mistakes detract considerably from an otherwise interesting read.
 
Jamie, I owe you an apology. I misread (distracted by the grammatical errors :P ) the sentence and now see that those figures are pre-Derby ratings.
 
Authorized has gone odds on in places for the Derby....sounds like they have had alot of rain last night with more forecast.
 
Good ground forecast...from Sporting Life website...

By Nick Robson, PA Sport

Officials at Epsom expect conditions at the track to be "near perfect" for the Vodafone Derby meeting.

The going was described by clerk of the course Andrew Cooper on Sunday to be good to soft, good in places, after overnight rainfall hit the Surrey venue.

But with the weather due to settle down towards the end of the week, Cooper believes good ground could be on the agenda.

"We have given the going on the Derby course as good to soft, good in places and on the five-furlong course good, good to soft in places," said Cooper.

"We've had 14mm of rain since 4pm on Saturday afternoon and we are expecting further rain later in the day.

"The first half of the week looks to have an unsettled scene but the latter half looks more settled. It would be nice not to get too much more in the next 24 hours.

"It looks unlikely that we will have fast ground and knowing the way this place dries, we would hope to have something near perfect, good ground."
 
That's right he was of course down to run in the Irish Guineas yesterday and was reportedly only taken out because they had the Epsom in mind. Like Acapulco he is out of a Darshaan mare and ought to be better suited by middle-distances than a mile.
 
Archipenko is drifting out (a little bit) in the Epsom betting as well on Betfair. Perhaps the plans are forming...
 
Jockey bookings will be interesting. No Spencer or Soumi, both of whom you would have expected to get a ride.
 
Although Chinese Whisper seems earmarked for the French Derby AOB has indicated that any of the other eight could run and that several will.
 
Archipenko out to 25/1 at Betfair. Looks like a non-runner :angy: :angy:

I had the biggest single bet of my life on it too :angy: :angy: :angy: cry
 
Sorry to hear that DO. If it's any consolation there are many in the race more likely to see out the trip than him. The French Derby might also be more his cup of tea. I think Gal had him marked down for that race all along. His chances of getting 12 furlongs rest on his dam side.

I remember what it was like when I plunged on the 8s on Montjeu for Epsom after they said he might run.
 
This seems to suggest that Eagle Mountain is probably first choice from Ballydoyle (which makes sense to me):

...However, that number is set to be reduced by at least one at Monday's five-day declaration stage.

"Chinese Whisper will definitely go to France (for French Derby) and we'll take him out (of the Derby) on Monday," said O'Brien.

"We'll definitely run more than one at Epsom but a lot of it will depend on the way the ground is going to go.

"Of the other eight, Eagle Mountain is definitely in the picture.

"While he handles fast ground, he also handles an ease."

PA
 
"While he handles fast ground, he also handles an ease." Classic AP quote.. leaves absolutely no doubt whatsoever.. :D

Interesting to hear you say that Archipenko's chances of staying the trip rest on his dam's side Steve.. I reckon Kingmambo is an underrated stamina influence..
 
When matched with the right mare Kingmambo can and does get staying types (e.g. Rule Of Law). I'd expect Archipenko to perhaps get a mile and a half but to be most effective at distances just shy of it.
 
Back
Top